Salmon Recovery Planning Under ESA, Assessing Salmon Vulnerability, and Climate Change Adaptation

1. Salmon Recovery Planning Under ESA,Assessing Salmon Vulnerability, and Climate Change Adaptation Tim Beechie NW Fisheries Science Center

2. Outline • Context of Endangered Species Act and salmon recovery planning • Salmon population vulnerability • Decision support for climate adaptation

3. United States European Union Endangered Species Act Habitats Directive • Species specific • Localized listings Clean Water Act Water Framework Directive • More holistic • Applied to all rivers Legislation

4. Purposes of US Legislation • Endangered Species Act: … conserve ecosystems upon which listed species depend • Clean Water Act: … restore and maintain the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of the nation’s waters

5. Questions in common • What’s the habitat status of a reach? • ESA and CWA require some reference against which to judge current status • What should our restoration targets be? • ESA and CWA require some sort of restoration target

6. Salmon Recovery Planning • Identifies actions needed to achieve salmon recovery goals • Habitat, Harvest, Hatchery, Hydro, other • Locally driven, with varying detail and quality • Increasing interest in considering climate change

7. Salmon vulnerability in thePacific Northwest

8. Conceptual basis: Existing stresses reduce salmon’s ability to respond to climate change Population status Other stressors Climate change Salmon vulnerability to climate change Vulnerability

9. Steelhead habitat and stock status Stock status stress Habitat stress Wade et al. in review

10. Steelhead climate stresses Future flow stress (2040s) Future temperature stress (2040s) Wade et al. in review

11. Steelhead vulnerability patterns Steelhead vulnerability (2040s) L Pop H L Flow Risk H L Pop H LHabH LHabH L Temp Risk H Wade et al. in review

12. Climate change adaptation

13. Key questions • What habitat factors limit salmon recovery? • What are local predicted climate change effects? • Do proposed restoration actions reduce climate change effects? • Do proposed restoration actions increase habitat diversity or ecosystem resilience?

14. Restoration actions and climate change

15. Evaluating a restoration plan Identify habitats limiting recovery Question 1: What habitats limit salmon recovery? Does climate change alter habitats limiting recovery? Question 2: What are local predicted climate effects? Unlikely Likely Do planned actions likely ameliorate climate effect? Follow existing plan Question 3: Does the plan reduce the effect? Unlikely Likely Do planned actions increase diversity or resilience? Follow existing plan Question 4: Does the plan increase resilience? Unlikely Likely Revise restoration plan Re-evaluate restoration plan Identify actions that address long-term limiting habitats Are there alternative actions that ameliorate climate effect?

16. Acknowledgements Hiroo Imaki, Jen Greene, George Pess, Phil Roni, Peter Kiffney NOAA, Northwest Fisheries Science Center Alisa Wade-Wilcox, David Stoms University of California Santa Barbara Huan Wu, John Kimball, Jack Stanford University of Montana Nate Mantua, Marketa Elsner University of Washington