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Aging & Baby Boomers

Aging & Baby Boomers. A Discussion With RSVP City of Burbank May 03, 2007. Proposed Agenda…but I can change it to address your concerns. Examine just who these Boomers are and why they are important. Examine what communities are doing and need to do.

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Aging & Baby Boomers

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  1. Aging & Baby Boomers A Discussion With RSVP City of Burbank May 03, 2007

  2. Proposed Agenda…but I can change it to address your concerns • Examine just who these Boomers are and why they are important. • Examine what communities are doing and need to do. • Take a peek at Boomers and volunteerism. • Try not to have too many of you die from PowerPoint poisoning this morning !

  3. 2005 WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE ON AGING DECEMBER 11 - 14, 2005

  4. Other Resources and Attributions • Harvard School of Public Health • Dr. Ken Dycktwald • Pepperdine Students • Wondirad Assefa Tsegaye • Jonathan Behr • John Jorden • Nick Kliebert • Nicholas Parrinello

  5. Boomers reject terms such as • "senior citizen," "elderly," and "old" • Boomers would be likely to respond to: "How would you define the meaning and purpose of this stage of life?"

  6. The majority of Boomers between ages 49 and 59 Believe old age starts around age 85…which Is two years beyond their Current life expectancy

  7. Government Conference on Aging • No one really knows with certainty what will happen with Boomers. • Boomers will transform politics, retirement systems, health care systems, welfare systems, labor markets, banking and stock markets.

  8. ©2002 The Dychtwald Group

  9. ©2002 The Dychtwald Group

  10. Change in Population Growth U.S.1950-1960 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 35% 37% 12% 18% 17% 8% -4% Under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census, 2000

  11. Change in Population Growth U.S.1960-1970 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 48% 21% 19% 13% 9% 4% -4% Under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census, 2000

  12. Change in Population Growth U.S.1970-1980 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 49% 27% 20% 17% 11% -2% -11% Under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census, 2000

  13. Change in Population Growth U.S.1980-1990 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 47% 22% 16% 11% 4% -3% -13% Under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census, 2000

  14. Change in Population Growth U.S.1990-2000 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 49% 15% 12% 20% 12% 7% -8% Under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census, 2000

  15. Change in Population Growth U.S.2000-2010 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 46 % 17 % 9 % 1 3% -1% -3 % -13 % Under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census, 2000

  16. Change in Population Growth U.S.2000-2020 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 73% 54% 7% 8% 3% 7% -10% Under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census, 2000

  17. Demographics • In 2006, the baby boomers began to turn 60 and in 2011, they turn 65. • 9000 Boomers a day will turn 60 in 2007. • Soon there will be a significant increase in the number of elder boomers. • From 2010 to 2030, the 65+ population is projected to “spike” by 75% to over 69 million people. • From 2030 to 2050, the growth rate is projected to grow about 14% with the number of elderly totaling about 79 million.

  18. Demographics • The 85+ population is the fastest growing segment of the older population. • The most rapid increases in the number of persons 85+ will take place between 2030 and 2050, when the baby boomer cohort reaches these ages. • This all leads to an eventual rise in the 100+ population as well.

  19. Demographics City of Burbank • 37.6 % Baby Boomers • 36.4 Median Age • 12.8 % Over 65 ( 7.8% Female ) • 23.3% Of Households have a 65+ • 9.8% of 65+ live alone • 24.9% Hispanic or Latino • 43.5% Households Owner Occupied

  20. The Oldest Old • The downside of increasing elderly populations. • Expect large increases in some very vulnerable groups with high percentage of individuals living in poverty or with low incomes. They will require a much greater. share of public/private support and services. • By 2025, there will be sizeable increases in the number of people requiring services in health care, nutrition, housing, transportation, recreation and education.

  21. Women Boomers • Women will predominate among the elderly, especially among the oldest old. • By 2050, it is projected that women 85+ will outnumber men 85+ by about 4 million, accounting for about 61% of the 85+ population. • Most of the 85+ will be widowed women.

  22. Minority Elderly • Minority elderly populations are projected to increase substantially for the next 3 decades. • While the white 65+ population is projected to increase by 95% between 1995 and 2030, minority rates are projected at: • 154.6% increase for Blacks. • 417.1% increase for people of Hispanic Origin. • 380.1% increase for people of Other Races.

  23. Wealth Transfer • In the near future, the baby boomers will be the recipients of the largest intergenerational transfer of wealth in the history of this country if not the world. More than $10 trillion will be transferred from the boomers’ aging parents. • A significant number of less well off boomers will be unaffected and the wealth differentials which exist today will follow the baby boomer generation.

  24. Longevity • Longevity Estimates: boomers will be living younger longer! • Internet Usage: Tech-savvy baby boomers, who grew up with television and radio and adopted cell phones, VCR’s, microwave ovens, and computers as they aged, are set to move on to a wired retirement. Boomers will be far better connected than retirees today.

  25. Economic Growth: • To sustain economic growth, in addition to continuing the great strides we have made in productivity, we will still need an expanding work force. • By 2011, when the first boomers turn 65, it is estimated that millions of jobs which need to be filled will outnumber available workers.

  26. Labor Force vs. Labor Force Demand 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 Labor needed Labor available Millions 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026

  27. Do Boomers Save Like Current Seniors? • Retirement Trends and Planning: Many questions arise about the baby boomers’ retirement and work force plans and their effects. • As with many Americans, boomers historically have been “low savers”. • Many boomers look to the equity in their houses as their savings. • Very few boomers have made realistic plans to replace the income they will lose when they retire

  28. Will They Handle the Financial Implications of Retirement? • Some boomers will have more than one career and take a new career for a challenge or pleasure. • Others, especially single women and minorities, will not retire because they cannot afford to do so. • If there are no significant policy changes and a significant portion of the boomers, especially women and minorities, keep working in their older years to just “make ends meet,” what will this portend?

  29. Are All Boomers Equal? • Economics influence the retirement and health care options for individuals which, in turn, impact their quality of life and life expectancy. • A number of boomers will be more affluent than today’s retirees. Older baby boomers may be better off financially then the younger boomers because of the healthier economy & inheriting greater wealth. • Many agree that, at current trends, there will be a growing gap between the rich and poor boomers.

  30. Federal Fiscal Policy • Former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan: • a financial shock wave spawned by millions of retiring baby boomers threatens to turn America’s social democracy upside down. • fewer workers labor under a heavy tax burden to finance retirement programs for millions of elderly baby boomers. • Impact on PBGC and Retiree Health Programs.

  31. What About Female Boomers? • It is projected that a great number of baby boomer women (most particularly minority women) will fall below the poverty line and experience poorer health in their later years. • This will be a critical developing issue which needs to be addressed now. Women typically work for fewer years than men because they are raising our children and caring for our elders.

  32. Who Will Care for Them? • Birth rates are declining. America is entering a time when fewer workers will support greater numbers of retirees. • From 2001 to 2030, federal revenues as a percentage of GDP will remain steady while Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid’s share of GDP will just about double.

  33. Law Enforcement and Protection • The protection of the financial and health care futures of vulnerable elder Americans and increasingly vulnerable aging baby boomers. • Financial exploitation by perpetrators who are relatives, business professionals/institutions, con artists and caregivers is becoming an increasingly common crime.

  34. Boomers Unclear About Working • Much uncertainty because Boomers have not made up their minds; • Regarding work and financial security, it is still unclear what retirement means to baby boomers even after extensive research. • Will they forego retirement because they cannot afford it or will they be bored by it? • Will they be working longer simply because they will be living longer? • Boomer choices will be impacted by the economy.

  35. Life Expectancy at Birth 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 85.1 1000 - 2000 47 38 36 Age 35 30 25 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Source: Census Bureau, 2000

  36. Years Spent in Retirement 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 20-25 19.4 13.6 1.2 1900 1980 1990 2000

  37. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age Linear Lifeplan Age Education Work Leisure

  38. Linear Lifeplan “Longevity Bonus” 85 Accumulation Years DistributionBegins 0 Education Work Leisure

  39. Linear Lifeplan “Longevity Bonus” Accumulation Years 85 0 Distribution Begins Education Work Leisure

  40. Cyclic Lifeplan “Longevity Bonus” “Longevity Bonus” “Longevity Bonus” “Longevity Bonus” Accumulation Years 85 0 Achieve Financial Freedom Distribution Begins Education Work Leisure

  41. 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 Age CyclicLifeplan Work Leisure Education

  42. A “Cyclic Retirement” is the New Paradigm for Work in Later Life . Other 6% Cycle between work and leisure 42% Never work for pay again 17% Full-time 6% Part-time 16% Start own business 13% New Retirement Survey “Which represents the ideal plan for how you will live in the next stage of your life?”

  43. Most Boomers are Considering a Whole New Line of Work After Retirement Not sure 3% Different line of work 56% Same line of work 41% New Retirement Survey “Will you work in the same line of work or a different line of work?”

  44. There’s been a reversal in trend towards early retirement since the mid 1980’s ---May be due to: • the strong economy. • the end of mandatory retirement, • changes to Social Security that encourage remaining in the labor force • improvements in the health and longevity of older Americans.

  45. #2 -Boomers& Local GovernmentThe need to getAmerica’s Communities on Track for the Aging of the PopulationCredit needs to be give to Barbra Markwood for her research in to this topic

  46. What do communities need to do? What are the Key Points that You Need to Make to Help Community Leaders See the Impact that an Aging Population Will Have on Their Community

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