SOTERIA meeting, Saariselkä 22.3.2009

1. SOTERIAmeeting, Saariselkä 22.3.2009 The chemical composition of the middle atmosphere - a nowcasting product based on irradiance observations of the experiments LYRA/PROBA2 and PREMOS/PICARD Werner Schmutz1), Tanja Egorova1), Eugene Rozanov1), Alexander Shapiro1), Anna Shapiro1), Manfred Vogel2) 1)Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland2) Institut für 4D–Technologien, Hochschule für Technik FHNW, Windisch, Switzerland

2. Overview • The PMOD/WRC space projects • LYRA/PROBA2 • PREMOS/PICARD • The nowcasting project • Current additions to SOCOLi

3. LYRA 315.0 x 92.5 x 222.0 mm ~A4 size 5.0 kg 3 units 12 detectors 24 LEDs … 1 unit = 4 wavelength channels

4. LYRA (FM March 2006) BESSY synchrotron calibration at PTB

5. LYRA integration on PROBA2 5.3.2007 Launch 15. July 2009

6. Filter RadiometersLYRA/PROBA2 (launch July 2009 ?!)PREMOS-PFR/PICARD (launch 2009 or early 2010) LYRA: 30 (Zr), 70 (Al), 125, 210 nm PREMOS: 215, 266, 535, 607, 782 nm

7. UV influence on the terrestrial atmosphere Ly a Ozone band 270 nm Ozone Herzberg band 210 nm 30 km: level of max. ozone change Ozone mixing ratio changes (%) due to a 10% increase of the spectral solar flux in 1 wavelength bin (1 nm).

8. LYRA/PROBA2 LYRA Instrument on PROBA2 (built by ROB & PMOD/WRC) Chemistry ionosphere climate model (CICM) extension of CCM SOCOL (Egorova et al., 2005) On-line LYRA data for space-weather community

9. Nowcast results available on web every 6 hours Output validation to improve the model and experimental set-up Project idea Hourly/Daily Data from observations by PREMOS, LYRA, SORCE Nowcast of neutral and ion composition in the mesosphere based on solar irradiance measurements  Evaluate the response of the middle atmosphere to the solar UV irradiance variability Nowcast of anomalies of neutral and charged species with free running CICM SOCOLi Radiation spectrum reconstruction 120-680 nm (Egorova et al., 2008,ACP)

10. Aim of Nowcast • Find out how well we understand the solar influence on the middle atmosphere; • Learn how to provide near-real-time operation; • Space Weather Service is secondary goal but may become interesting if successful !

11. Data flow LYRA measurements: 6-hourly solar irradiance at 115-125 nm (Lyman-) 200-220 nm (Herzberg cont.) Spectral irradiance for other wavelengths Measurements for previous month Statistical tools Input of spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid for the next 6 hours

12. Status PMOD/WRC project • Model SOCOLi is developed • Getting ready for „operational service“ after PROBA 2 launch • Develop data flow; automatic modelling, and tool to browse the result •  via link available through European Space Weather Portal web page • Publications: • Egorova T. et al. 2004, GRL 31, L06119: Chemical and dynamical response to the 11-year variability of the solar irradiance simulated with a chemistry-climate Model • Egorova T. et al. 2005, COSPAR, Adv. Space Res. 35, 451-457: Influence of solar 11-year variability on chemical composition of the stratosphere and mesosphere simulated with a chemistry-climate model • Rozanov E., Egorova T., Schmutz W., Peter T., 2006, J. Atm. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 68, 2203–2213, Simulation of the stratospheric ozone and temperature response to the solar irradiance variability during sun rotation cycle • Egorova et al. 2008, ACP 8, 2965-2973, Nowcast and short-term forecast in the middle atmosphere based on the observed UV irradiance.

13. Winds and temperature • H2O (troposphere) GCM CTM • Ozone • H2O(stratosphere) CICM SOCOL SOCOL : modeling tool to study SOlar-Climate-Ozone Links General Circulation component (GCM): MA-ECHAM4 (Manzini & McFarlane,1998) Chemistry/transport component (CTM) : MEZON (Egorova et al., 2003) Main properties: ~4ºx4º (T30); L39; ~80km Included all relevant physical, dynamical and chemical processes Simulates wind, temperature, 43 neutral and 48 charged species

14. Experimental setup 10-member model ensemble run for the next 6 hours Spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid for the next 6 hours Model output for the next 6 hours Initial fields for 10 ensemble members Initialization fields for the next period

15. Output data Mixing ratio of the neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density for the 6 hour period after the last LYRA measurement and their statistical properties 4D Location, height, and time O+, O2+, O4+, N+, NO+, N2+, H2O2+, H3O+,O2+∙N2, O2+∙H2O, H3O+∙OH, NO+∙H2O, NO+∙(H2O)2, NO+∙(H2O)3, NO+∙CO2, NO+∙N2, NO+∙H2O∙CO2, NO+∙H2O∙N2, NO+∙(H2O)2∙CO2, NO+∙(H2O)2∙N2, H+∙(H2O)2, H+∙(H2O)3, H+∙(H2O)4, H+∙(H2O)5, H+∙(H2O)6, H+∙(H2O)7, H3O+∙CO2, H3O+∙N2, H+∙(H2O)2∙CO2, H+∙(H2O)2∙N2 e¯,O¯, O2¯, O3¯, O4¯, OH¯, CO3¯, CO4¯, NO2¯, NO3¯, HCO3¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH3¯,O2¯∙H2O, NO3¯∙H2O, CO3¯∙H2O O3 , O* , O , O2*, NO, HO2, ClO, NO2 , OH, NO3, N2O5, HNO3,HONO3, ClONO2, Cl, N, N*, H2O2, H, HOCl, Cl2, Cl2O2, HCl ,Br, CH2O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO3, BrCl, CH3, CH3O2, CH3O, HCO, CH3O2H, H2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, N2O, CH4, CO, H2, CBrF3

16. Model sensitivity to the changes of the solar spectral irradiance from minimum to maximum of the solar activity Positive ions Negative ions and electrons • Graphs: Exp1-Exp2 • Solar maximum with GCR at min + NO ionization • Solar minimum control with GCR at max + NO ionization Neutrals

17. Comparison 3D simulation and observations: signal of 27-day solar cycle in ozone Red:Ly-alpha Blue: Herzberg (scaled) SUSIM data Microwave Radiometer SOMORA : Data provided by Bern University N.Kämpfer group SOCOL calculations

18. Latest update: SEP effects Time-altitude distribution differences at 70-90 N relative to SEP effects turned off

19. Summary • SWAP (0.1 Hz) + LYRA (60 Hz) on PROBA2 provide the EUV equivalent in Europe of the NOAA SXI + GOES X-ray monitor 2009-2011 • SODISM + PREMOS on PICARD will continue in the near UV and visual 2009/2010-2012