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METHODS FOR ESTIMATING NET SAVINGS FOR 2004-2005 STATEWIDE RARP

METHODS FOR ESTIMATING NET SAVINGS FOR 2004-2005 STATEWIDE RARP. Presentation at CALMAC Meeting Pacific Energy Center July 18, 2007. Presentation by: Donald Dohrmann ADM Associates, Inc. Presentation Overview. Historical Context of RARP Net Savings Estimation

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METHODS FOR ESTIMATING NET SAVINGS FOR 2004-2005 STATEWIDE RARP

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  1. METHODS FOR ESTIMATING NET SAVINGS FOR 2004-2005 STATEWIDE RARP Presentation at CALMAC Meeting Pacific Energy Center July 18, 2007 Presentation by: Donald DohrmannADM Associates, Inc.

  2. Presentation Overview • Historical Context of RARP Net Savings Estimation • KEMA Method for Estimating Net Savings for 2002 RARP • KEMA Method Applied to 2004-2005 RARP • Modifications to KEMA Method • Method for Estimating Free-ridership

  3. Estimating Net Savings for RARP:Objectives • Determine program-level savings attributable to RARP (i.e., What proportion of gross savings resulted because of program?)

  4. Previous NTG Estimates

  5. Estimating Net Savings:Issues • Overall drop in NTG 1996-2002 programs: .53 to .35. • Rise in proportion who would have discarded without program.41 to .86 • Drop in proportion who would have continued use without program: .45 to .09 • Disaggregated NTG (2003): • Among primary refrigerators: .37 • Among secondaries: .65 • Among freezers: .73

  6. Estimating Net Savings:Guiding Principles • Maintain consistency with past evaluations of RARP (as much as possible) • Improve statistical precision of estimates

  7. Estimating Net Savings:How NTG Estimated-2002 Program

  8. Estimating Net Savings:How NTG Estimated-2002 Program

  9. 2002 NTG Re-stated

  10. 2004-2005 Per KEMA Method

  11. Discarded-Transferred Calculation:2002

  12. Discarded-Transferred Calculation:2004-2005

  13. Discarded-Transferred Calculation:Buying of Used Unit

  14. Discarded-Transferred Calculation: Example Alternatives for Used Units

  15. Estimating Net of Free-Ridership Impacts • Per most recent protocols from CPUC • Two categories for free-ridership • Unit kept but not used • Unit discarded in way that it would be destroyed • Includes some units discarded to dealers

  16. Data for Estimating Free-ridership for 2004-2005 RARP • Customer Telephone Surveys • 716 households that participated in 2004-05 RARP • 354 households that did not participate in the 2004-05 RARP but that disposed of a refrigerator in past four years

  17. Free-ridership Components:Primary Refrigerators Kept Not Used

  18. Free-ridership Components:Primary Refrigerators Destroyed

  19. Free-ridership Estimates:2004-2005 RARP Primary Refrigerators

  20. Statistical Precision • Standard errors for proportions • Propagation of error techniques • Sample sizes major factor • 2004-2005 sample sizes > 2002 sample sizes • 2004-2005 participant sample size > 2004-2005 non-participant sample sizes • Sample sizes smaller for individual utility estimates • Samples for refrigerators > samples for freezers

  21. Comparison of Sample Sizes:Refrigerators

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