Issues and counter-measures related to the status of the power supply in SAARC countries

1. Issues and counter-measuresrelated to the status of the power supply in SAARC countries March 6, 2013 Professor Shigeru Sudo Department of Business Management Teikyo Heisei University

2. Three topics in the presentation Ⅰ.The actual state of the power industry in India Ⅱ.The problems being faced by SAARC countries Ⅲ.The counter-measures which must be taken in SAARC countries.

3. Ⅰ.Power industry in India Electric power conditions in India may be summarized in the following; (1) While power demand has been on the increase, power supply is unable to catch up with it. (2) Apart from technical losses in the process of power transmission and distribution, power theft is also a major loss factor. (3) Due to high economic/population growth rate, India’s primary energy consumption is expected to grow by 3.9% annually from 0.524 billion tons (coal equivalent) in 2010 to 1.376 billion (coal equivalent) in 2035. (4) As of January 2012, 20 nuclear power reactors with a total power capacity of 4.78 million kW are in operation. The Indian Government has been implementing active plans to construct nuclear power stations. It is intending to expand plant capacity by 7.9 times from 4.10 million kW in 2010 to 32.40 million kW in 2030.

4. Power Generation & Consumption in SAARC countries

5. Ⅱ．Problems being faced by India in promotingits nuclear power plan 1. An important element in its plan is the targeted capacity of 32.40 million kW to be achieved by 2030. 2. Views of Japanese experts concerned are varied. However, their majority is of the view that two conditions must be met in order for this target to be achieved. 3. These two conditions relate firstly to probability of the eventual application of ｔhe Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act (2010) and secondly to the issue of howto ensure public acceptance.

6. Ⅲ．Identification of problems and counter-measures to deal withthem Possible impacts on the South Asian economy in the event that India’s nuclear power generation plan may not proceed as planned. 1. Since last year the situation has been continuing where the level of power supply remains below the level of peak-time power demand. 2. Efforts on the part of certain States to procure electricity at levels higher than predetermined from other States have aggravated the spread of domino-like adverse effects. 3. The lack of sufficient power generation capacity comes from the fact that investment in power plant construction does not catch up with rapidly expanding power demand.

7. Basic framework of the countermeasures • To promote the development of alternative power sources concurrently and in parallel with nuclear power development in India. In this connection, I would like to count upon Indian participants for further detailed comments. However, I myself believe that coal-fired thermal power generation could play the most important role in this respect. 2.To promote intra-regional pooling arrangements To what extent shall intra-regional pooling arrangements be considered to be possible? According to a macro (country-by-country basis) analysis, rates of reserve in power supplies in each country seem not to be high. However, more detailed studies will be warranted to find what sort of overall picture can be drawn by way of a more detailed region-by-region analysis. 3. Possibility of extra-regional cooperative arrangements The third point for consideration is to work outextra-regional cooperative arrangements as an exponential measure of intra-regional arrangements.

8. Electric Power Generation by Energy Source in Japan 7.5 14.4 29.3 39.5 28.6 10.7 Source: “Federation of Electric Power Companies”

9. Utilization Ratio of Nuclear Power Plant 67.3% 23.7％ Source: “Federation of Electric Power Companies”

10. V. Relating basic questions Question No1: Most important matter in keeping supply and demand balance “Do you think that the most important matter in overcoming power shortages is the expansion of generation capacity?” Or “Do you think that what is the most important is power-pooling arrangements with neighboring countries?” Question No.2: The possibility of regional cooperation “Do you have any concrete plan for promoting power pooling arrangements? ”　 “Do you have any plan for making more effective use of the existing transmission systems within the region?” Question No.3 : Regional cooperation: 　“Is there any example of regional cooperation in the field of financial cooperation? ”

11. Proposed objectives of CASA1000 ●The objective of the Project is to promote clean hydroelectricity exports from Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic to Afghanistan and Pakistan. ●The project outcome will be measured by the amount of electricity(in Gigawatt-hours) exported via the transmission system to be constructed under the Project. Source: World Bank “PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT CONCEPT STAGE Report No.70560 “

12. Preliminary description of CASA1000 The CASA-1000 Project would comprise of: (a) around 750 km High Voltage Direct Current (DC) transmission system between Tajikistan and Pakistan via Afghanistan; (b) a DC to Alternate Current (AC) converter station in Kabul to supply Kabul area; (c) an AC transmission link between the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to supply the Kyrgyz electricity to South Asia via Tajikistan; (d) the concomitant institutional and legal framework to enable such electricity trade. Tentative financing source:To be determined Approximately 950US$ million Source: World Bank “PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT CONCEPT STAGE Report No.70560 “