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Evidence from Research on Ethno-political Organizations

An Organization-based Approach to Explaining Current Trends in the Middle East and North Africa Circa March 2011. Evidence from Research on Ethno-political Organizations. Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior – Middle East. Conditions Conducive to Ethnic Terrorism.

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Evidence from Research on Ethno-political Organizations

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  1. An Organization-based Approach to Explaining Current Trends in the Middle East and North Africa Circa March 2011 Evidence from Research on Ethno-political Organizations

  2. Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior – Middle East

  3. Conditions Conducive to Ethnic Terrorism • Organizations professing a democratic ideology are significantly less likely engage in terrorism • Organizations with the following characteristics are more likely to engage in terrorism: • Separatism • Rhetoric justifying violence • Foreign Support • State Repression • Organizations that do not have a democratic ideology and have all the factors above have an 89% likelihood of engaging in terrorism

  4. MAR and MAROB AFOSR Evaluation Meeting - Oct 20, 2008

  5. Annual MAROB Data • Organizational Behavior • Nonviolent Behavior (Electoral politics, protests) • Violence (Violent rhetoric, Targets, Location, violent repertoire) • Involvement in Criminal Networks • Organizational Characteristics • Type of Leadership • Ideology • Grievances Ethno-political Organization • Organization-State Relations • Does state repress organization? • Has state reached agreement with organization? Data Sources • International Media • Gov’t and NGO reports • Academic studies • External Support • Diaspora • Foreign State • NGO • IGO AFOSR Evaluation Meeting - Oct 20, 2008

  6. Figure 1: Shifts in Ideology of Ethnopolitical Organizations

  7. Figure 2: Strategies of Ethnopolitical Organizations 1980-2004

  8. Figure 3: The Use of Terror by Organizations 1980-2004

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