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Professor John Whitelegg The Stockholm Environment Institute

Designing a Zero Carbon Transport System. Copenhagen, 8th December 2009. Professor John Whitelegg The Stockholm Environment Institute. The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI).

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Professor John Whitelegg The Stockholm Environment Institute

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  1. Designing a Zero Carbon Transport System Copenhagen, 8th December 2009 Professor John Whitelegg The Stockholm Environment Institute

  2. The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) SEI is an independent, international research institute specializing in sustainable development and environment issues. The SEI mission developed from the insights gained at the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm (after which the Institute derives its name), the work of the (Brundtland) World Commission for Environment and Development and the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development. Mission SEI’s mission is to support decision-making and induce change towards sustainable development around the world by providing integrative knowledge that bridges science and policy in the field of environment and development.

  3. The Plan • We have a problem (bottom left to top right) • It is getting worse • Most policy making shares the behavioural characteristics of the rabbit caught in the headlights of a passing car • The solution is not hard

  4. Source: http://www.iea.org/textbase/speech/2004/haug/vienna_april.pdf

  5. Personal transport activity by region

  6. Personal transport activity by mode

  7. Worldwide transport-related fuel use - all transport modes

  8. Transport-related Well-To-Wheels CO2 emissions by mode

  9. Transport-related Well-To-Wheels CO2 emissions by region

  10. Sprawl – this was the western American solution

  11. Co-Benefits • Space • Time • Broken bodies • Air pollution • Oil (war and price)

  12. SPACE SPACE Prof John Whitelegg

  13. Amount of space required to transport the same number of people by car, bus or bicycle

  14. Effective Speed

  15. “The typical American male devotes more than 1,600 hours a year to his car …He spends four of his sixteen waking hours on the road or gathering his resources for it” (Illich, 1974, 18-19) http://www.stationwagon.com/gallery/1973_Chevy_Impala.html

  16. “The model American puts in 1,600 hours to get 7,500 miles: less than five miles per hour” (Illich, 1974, 19)

  17. Broken bodies • 3000 deaths every day • Approx 1.2 million annually • 85% of deaths are in LMIC • 96% of child deaths are in LMIC • 20-50 million injured or disabled each year • Costs over $500 billion pa

  18. What are your chances of surviving a collision if you are struck by a car while walking or cycling?

  19. WHO 2004 ‘Road traffic crashes are predictable and therefore preventable. In order to combat the problem, though, there needs to be close coordination and collaboration, using a holistic and integrated approach, across many sectors and many disciplines’.

  20. Community • Donald Appleyard “Livable streets” , 1981

  21. Health • Air pollution • Obesity

  22. Maximum average of pollutant concentrations breathed in by cyclists and motorists in one hour on the same journey at the same time

  23. Obesity Rate by Country

  24. Obesity falls sharply with increased walking, cycling and transit use

  25. Oil and War • “This country must be prepared to deploy military forces to secure supplies if we encounter a situation in which we are denied access to oil” • Lieutenant Colonel Dennis D Tewksbury, US Army War College

  26. Adding in IEA’s latest Reference Scenario for future demand (‘business-as-usual’) bb/y mb/d 20 55 25 68 30 82 35 96 40 110 45 123

  27. So what do we do next Monday morning? Build more bypasses, bridges and airports or start to move towards a low carbon society? 33

  28. Mode travel choice in Basel, Switzerland and Nottingham, UK

  29. Best Practice • Cycling in Muenster • Modal split in Basle • Urban logistics in German cities • Congestion charging in London and Stockholm • Oil free Sweden • Car-reduced Lund/Freiburg • Rural public transport in NRW

  30. The zero carbon project (2050) • SEI team • Accurate calculations of the amount of carbon we can strip out of the system • Salami technique • Fiscal, behavioural, spatial, technology • Hybrid approach • Identify Policy pathways

  31. Policy Packages • Re-engineer the city of short distances • Strong fiscal signals to deliver PPP • Strong resilience models/peak oil policies • End of £240 billion pa transport subsidy • 100% electrification of rail

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