Sivan Kartha Stockholm Environment Institute Tom Athanasiou, Paul Baer EcoEquity

1. The Right to Development in a Climate Constrained WorldThe Greenhouse Development Rights framework Sivan Kartha Stockholm Environment Institute Tom Athanasiou, Paul Baer EcoEquity

2. The Right to Development in a Climate Constrained World: The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework Authors Sivan Kartha (Stockholm Environment Institute) Tom Athansiou (EcoEquity) Paul Baer (EcoEquity) Eric Kemp-Benedict (SEI) Key Collaborators Jörg Haas (European Climate Foundation) Lili Fuhr (Heinrich Boll Foundation) Nelson Muffuh (Christian Aid) Andrew Pendleton (IPPR) Supporters Christian Aid (UK) Oxfam (International) Norwegian Church Aid (Denmark) The Heinrich Böll Foundation (Germany) MISTRA Foundation CLIPORE Programme (Sweden) Stockholm Environment Institute (Int’l) Rockefeller Brothers Fund (US) Town Creek Foundation (US) 2 2

3. Arctic Sea Ice 2005 2007 “The sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return. The implications for global climate, as well as Arctic animals and people, are disturbing.” Mark Serreze, NSIDC, Oct. 2007. “This enormous ice retreat in the last two summers is the culmination of a thinning process that has been going on for decades, and now the ice is just collapsing.” Peter Wadhams, Cambridge University, Oct. 2008. 3

4. Greenland Ice Sheet IPCC-AR4: “0.18 – 0.59 m by 2100” Hansen, 2007: “several meters by 2100” 4

5. Carbon Cycle Feedbacks “Together, these effects characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected climate forcing sooner than expected.” (Canadell et al, 2007, PNAS) 5

6. Tipping Elements in the Climate System Lenton et al, 2008  2ºC is already risking catastrophic, irreversible impacts. This climate crisis calls for an emergency program. 6

7. The climate challenge: a thought experiment Global 2ºc pathway Emissions pathway in the South Emissions pathway in the North What kind of climate regime can enable this to happen…? 10

8. … in the midst of a development crisis? 2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels More than 1.5 billion people without electricity More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh water About 800 million people chronically undernourished 2 million children die per year from diarrhea 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases 11

9. A viable climate regime must… • Ensure the rapid mitigationrequired by an emergency climate stabilization program • Support the deep, extensive adaptationprograms that will inevitably be needed • While at the same time safeguarding the right to development

10. A “Greenhouse Development Rights” approach to a global climate accord… Defines and calculates national obligations with respect to a development threshold Allows those people with incomes and emissions below the threshold to prioritize development Obliges people with incomes and emissions above the threshold (in both the North and South) to pay the global costs of an emergency climate program 13

11. Development threshold? What should a “Right to Development” safeguard? Traditional poverty line: $1/day? …$2/day? (“destitution line” and “extreme poverty line” of World Bank, UNDP, etc.) Empirical analysis: $16/day (“global poverty line,” after Pritchett/World Bank (2006)) For indicative calculations, consider development threshold 25% above global poverty line about $20/day ($7,500/yr; PPP-adjusted)

12. Burden-sharing in a global climate regime Define National Obligation (national share of global mitigation and adaptation costs) based on: Capacity: resources to pay w/o sacrificing necessities We use income (PPP), excluding income below the $20/day ($7,500/year) development threshold Responsibility: contribution to the climate problem We use cumulative CO2 emissions, excluding “subsistence” emissions (i.e., emissions corresponding to consumption below the development threshold)

13. UNFCCC: The preamble “Acknowledging the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response,in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” 16

14. “Negotiations for a shared vision … must be based on an equitable burden sharing paradigm that ensures equal sustainable development potential for all citizens of the world and that takes into account historical responsibility and respective capabilities as a fair and just approach.” G-5 Political Declaration Sapporo, Japan, 8 July 2008 in response to the G-8 statement, Hokkaido, Japan, 2008 17

15. Income and Capacity: showing projected national income distributions in 2010, and capacity in green

16. Emissions vs. Responsibility Cumulative fossil CO2 (since 1990) showing portion considered “responsibility”

17. National obligations based on capacity and responsibility in 2010 22

18. Income and obligations over time 26

19. What are the costs? 27

20. Funding Obligations (for funding target of = 1% of Annex 1 GDP)

21. Allocating global mitigation obligationsamong countries according to their “RCI” Norwegian Auctioning Proposal: expand each “obligation wedge” by 2%. Auctioning authority is given auctionable permits equal to this amount. 30

22. Implications for United States US mitigation obligation amounts to a reduction target exceeding 100% after ~2025 (“negative emission allocation”). 33

23. Implications for United States Here, physical domestic reductions (~25% below 1990 by 2020) are only part of the total US obligation. The rest would be met internationally. 34

24. In comparison to the more ambitious of US bills...

25. Implications for China 中国的测算结果 37

26. Implications for China 中国的测算结果 A large fraction of China's reduction, (and most of the reductions in the South) are driven by industrialized country reduction commitments. 38

27. Implications for India The majority of the reductions in the South are driven by industrialized country reduction commitments. 39

28. Final Comments The scientific evidence is a wake-up call. Carbon-based growth is no longer an option in the North, nor in the South. A rigorous, binding commitment to North-to-South flows of technology and financial assistance is critical. Domestic reductions in the North are only half of the North’s obligation. In principle, a corresponding commitment from the consuming class in the South is also necessary. In practice, Copenhagen will need to bring a period of trust-building. The alternative to something like this is a weak regime with little chance of preventing catastrophic climate change This is about politics, not only about equity and justice. 53

29. www.GreenhouseDevelopmentRights.org Forthcoming: 2nd edition report with updated analysis, online calculator and dataset Email info authors@ecoequity.org 54

30. additional slides

31. Emergency pathways: details Baer and Mastrandrea (2007) Carbon concentrations in these scenarios peak and decline (rather than stabilize).