Holger Hoff Stockholm Environment Institute Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

1. Mainstreaming climatechangeadaptationinto national watersectorpolicies, strategies, andactionplans Holger Hoff Stockholm Environment Institute Potsdam Institute forClimate Impact Research Cairo, 20 January 2013

2. MENA context mostwater (andland) scarce, subjecttosevereresourcedegradation, e.g. desertification, groundwaterdepletion resourceproductivitiesarerelativelylow GHG emissionsarerisingrapidly climateprojectionsbroadlyagreeon decrease in total precipitation, on top ofincreasingtemperaturesandmore/stronger extremes with projected major impacts on water resources, agriculture and ecosystems non-linear translation of precipitation change into change in water availability

3. brief update on climatescience – impacts on waterresources } RCP 8.5 } RCP 4.5

4. brief update on climatescience – impacts on waterresources latestresultsfromISI-MIP, theInterSectoral Impact Model IntercomparisonProject ensemble change in annual discharge at 2 °C under RCP 8.5 Schewe et al. 2013

5. brief update on climatescience – impacts on agriculture ensemble change in potential calorie production for maize, soybean, wheat and rice, by end of century, median of 156 GCM × GHM × GGCM Elliot et al. 2013

6. brief update on climatescience – impacts on relatedsectors after Hamududu et al 2012

7. howimportantisclimatechangeamongthefullsetofpressures? not yetthestrongestpressure, but it‘s absolute and relative importancearegoingtoincrease MENA hasthe least uncertaintyaboutthedirectionofchange extreme eventsarelikelytoseverelyimpactwaterresources, aheadoftheimpactsfromchanges in averageprecipitation& temperature alreadytransgressingsomecriticalthresholdsof adaptive capacity

8. howimportantisclimatechangeamongthefullsetofpressures?

9. howtorespond in thefaceofuncertainty? • Adaptation hasto • be robust, i.e. hold under different futurehydro-climatologicalconditions • address also otherpressuresbeyondclimatechange • buildresilience (e.g. throughdiversity) startingfromwin-wins, such asdemandmanagementandmanyother IWRM measures additional risksfromclimatechange, threateningtocrossthresholds, needtobeidentifiedjointlybyscientistsandstakeholders, in ordertodevelopnewadaptationmeasuresorpathwaysfortransformation

10. Whatis „mainstreaming“? Mainstreaming isaboutmakingbetteruseofexistingresources,throughidentificationofsynergies, coordinationandintegrationwithother (ongoing) activities, such asIWRM, ratherthan stand-aloneclimate(mal-)adaptation forexample: climateadaptationcanbeveryenergy- andGHG-intensive, e.g. desalinationorirrigation(pumping) climatemitigationcanbeverywater intensive, e.g. hydropower, biofuels, carbonsequestration in terrestrialecosystems

11. Whatis „adaptation“? IPCC: adaptationmoderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities OECD-DAC : adaptation reduces vulnerability…. by increasing adaptive capacity and resilience [and flexibility]

12. Which national policies, strategies, andactionplansareappropriateforclimatemainstreaming? e.g. Lebanon:National Water Sector StrategyNational Energy Efficiency Action PlanHydropower Master PlanStrategic Environmental Assessment Jordan:WaterStrategy- WaterforLifeNational Water Master PlanInvestment or Action Plan(Climate Change Policy – howcloselylinkedtothewatersector?)

13. Which national policies, strategies, andactionplansareappropriateforclimatemainstreaming? e.g. Egypt:National Water Resources PlanNational StrategyforSustainableAgriculturalDevelopment(National Adaptation StrategytoClimate Change – howcloselylinkedtothewatersector?)

14. Which national policies, strategies, andactionplansareappropriateforclimatemainstreaming? National Communications (upcomingrevisions) generally: useopportunities such asrevisionsof water, agricultural, energy, climateandotherstrategiesandactionplans formainstreamingnexusprinciples, but also economicdevelopmentstrategies, given e.g. theneedforeconomicdiversification (resilience), forfurtherprocessingalongthevaluechain, etc whicharemost relevant / promising? howtoclosetheimplementationgap (strengthenpolitical will)?

15. Who arethekeypartners in mainstreaming? e.g. Ministries of Water (Resources) & Irrigation / Energy and Water Ministries of Agriculture Ministries of Environment Environmental Affairs Agency others…. researchinstitutions, e.g.: Lebanese Agriculture Research Institute (LARI) Environment and Climate Research Institute (ECRI), Egypt NCARE, Jordan howtointerestthem in climatechangeadaptation?

16. Who arethekeypartners in mainstreaming? also the private sector (interest in protectingtheresourcebaseforthefuture civilsociety (e.g. through NGOs) • doesitneed „bridginginstitutions“ whichintegrate „robust adaptation“ withsectoralandlocalexpertiseandimplementationcapacity, e.g. • Environment ministries / agencies • InterMinisterial Committee on ClimateChange (see Egypt) • Climate Change Coordination Unit (seeLebanon) • Strategic Environmental Assessments • Wateruserassociationsorfora • lessonslearnedfromthese (transferrability)?

17. Why a regional approach? „ reducing relative disparity between Arab states” (ArabWaterStrategy) “enhance Arab cooperation through …investing in joint agricultural projects….. supporting Arab agricultural integration” (Riyad Declaration to Enhance Arab Cooperation to Face the Global Food Crisis, LAS)

18. Why a regional approach? severalsurfaceandgroundwaterresourcesare trans-boundary -> needtobemanagedjointly UNEP, Arab Atlas ofourchangingenvironment 2013 waterstorageopportunities? foodstorageopportunities?

19. Why a regional approach? sharingofexperience, knowledge, data, e.g. throughjointdatabasesoradaptationplatforms / fora cooperation on researchanddevelopmentforinnovation example: useof WEAP (waterassessment)tool in variousMENA countries‘ National Communication joiningforcesfortappingadaptation (andmitigation) funding definingobjectivesandfociof international investmentsin theregion, e.g. from OPEC Fund for International Development howtogenerateenoughinterest in regional cooperationthataddsvalueto national adaptationactivities?

20. Concludingremarks / questionsfordiscussion climateadaptationisnot „a luxuryadd-on oncetheothermorepressingproblemsaresolved“ pro-activeadaptationischeaperthanre-activeoremergencyresponses ithelpstomaintaintheresourcebase, supportsdevelopment, andhencecancontributetostability arethechallenges in climateadaptationrelatedto lack ofknowledgeorplanningorimplementation? howtotacklethesechallenges ? most promising institutionalentrypoints?