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Current Trends In Mining Finance. April 29, 2013. Extensive Experience in Mining & Metals. $11.5 million. C$10.7 million. $8.7 million. C$20.0 million. $22.3 million. $44.0 million. $20.0 million. C$15.0 million. $650.0 million. Lead Bookrunner. Follow-on Equity Offering.
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Current Trends In Mining Finance April 29, 2013
$11.5 million C$10.7 million $8.7 million C$20.0 million $22.3 million $44.0 million $20.0 million C$15.0 million $650.0 million Lead Bookrunner Follow-on Equity Offering Financial Advisor Financial Advisor Sale to Agnico Eagle Rights Offering December 2012 Financial Advisor Co-Manager Lead Bookrunner Lead Bookrunner Sole Bookrunner Co-Manager Senior Co-Manager Pending January 2013 Reverse Stock Split Bought Deal (Flow-Through) Follow-on Equity Offering Initial Public Offering Follow-on Equity Offering Bought Deal (Flow-Through) 10% Senior Notes Offering January 2013 January 2013 November 2012 July 2012 June 2012 June 2012 May 2012 C$15.0 million C$629.1 million $47.3 million C$30.0 million $510.0 million C$80.5 million $332.5 million C$27.4 million $112.1 million C$40.3 million Co-Manager Financial Advisor Joint Bookrunner Financial Advisor Senior Co-Manager Co-Manager Co-Manager Financial Advisor Financial Advisor Bought Deal (Flow-Through) Merger with Golden Minerals Follow-on Equity Offering Strategic Placement Follow-on Equity Offering Follow-On Equity Offering Follow-on Equity Offering Private Placement (Flow-Through) Advisory Services Special Committee Lead Bookrunner October 2011 September 2011 July 2011 June 2011 June 2011 February 2012 May 2013 December 2011 October 2011 Lead Bookrunner Follow-on Equity Offering Follow-on Equity Offering February 2011 March 2011 $200.0 million C$115.0 million C$17.3 million $230.0 million $275.0 million $180.0 million C$12.0 million $675.0 million C$151.5 million Co-Manager US Placement Agent Lead Bookrunner Co-Manager Co-Manager Co-Manager Financial Advisor Senior Co-Manager Co-Manager 9.25% Senior Notes Offering Follow-on Unit Offering Follow-on Equity Offering Follow-on Equity Offering Senior Notes Offering Convertible Notes Offering Strategic Placement Follow-on Equity Offering Bought Deal April 2011 April 2011 March 2011 March 2011 March 2011 March 2011 February 2011 February 2011 December 2010 C$283.0 million C$37.9 million $46.0 million C$40.5 million C$28.8 million $393.8 million C$283.5 million C$51.8 million $1.2 billion US Placement Agent US Placement Agent Financial Advisor US Placement Agent Financial Advisor Co-Manager Co-Manager US Placement Agent Co-Manager Initial Public Offering Initial Public Offering Sale to Ranger Energy Bought Deal Bought Deal Initial Public Offering Bought Deal Initial Public Offering Follow-on Equity Offering $240.0 million C$10.0 million $422.9 million $41.7 million $65.8 million $114.4 million C$6.0 million C$72.6 million $15.1 million December 2010 November 2010 September 2010 September 2010 July 2010 July 2010 May 2010 April 2010 April 2010 $23.0 million $51.0 million C$20.0 million $22.8 million Co-Manager US Placement Agent Co-Manager Lead Bookrunner Lead Bookrunner Senior Co-Manager Financial Advisor Bookrunner Sole Placement Agent Initial Public Offering Follow-on Equity Offering Follow-on Equity Offering Initial Public Offering Follow-on Equity Offering Follow-on Equity Offering Strategic Placement Follow-on Equity Offering PIPE Sole Bookrunner Senior Co-Manager US Placement Agent April 2010 April 2010 March 2010 March 2010 February 2010 February 2010 January 2010 January 2010 November 2009 Lead Bookrunner Follow-on Equity Offering Follow-on Equity Offering Equity Private Placement Follow-on Equity Offering October 2009 August 2009 June 2009 September 2009 C$14.4 million $17.0 million $4.0 million C$80.0 million C$57.6 million $10.1 million $50.3 million C$15.5 million C$9.0 million $99.4 million C$3.0 million US Placement Agent Joint Bookrunner Sole Financial Advisor Sole Financial Advisor US Placement Agent Sole Financial Advisor Equity Private Placement Follow-on Unit Offering Gold Stream Financing Acquisition of Klondex Mines Bought Deal Sale of Noche Buena Royalty Joint Bookrunner US Placement Agent Sole Financial Advisor Senior Co-Manager US Placement Agent Follow-on Equity Offering Follow-on Equity Offering Strategic Placement Follow-on Equity Offering Private Placement of Units November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 Withdrawn June 2009 December 2010 May 2009 May 2009 March 2009 February 2009 December 2008 The Leading US Franchise in Mining & Metals
A Leader in Mining & Metals Marketed Equity Deals Mining & Metals Bookrunner League Table(a) Junior Mining Bookrunner League Table(b) Source: Cowen Equity Capital Markets and Dealogic. Note: Equity deals above represent Cowen Securities transactions. (a) Includes all mining & metals public follow-ons >$15M in the US and Canada since May 2009. Excludes bought deals and private placements. (b) Includes precious metals public follow-ons >$15M in the US and Canada since May 2009. Excludes bought deals, private placements and offerings by issuers with >$5B pro forma MVEs.
Commodity Price Cyclicality Commodity Prices Over the Past Five Years +46% +19% (10%) (12%) Source: Capital IQ. Data as of April 26, 2013.
Mining Equities Price Cyclicality Mining Equities Prices Over the Past Five Years (46%) (55%) (65%) Source: Capital IQ. Data as of April 26, 2013. Note: Coal Index represents Dow Jones U.S. Coal Index. Copper Index based on Cowen Securities Investment Banking coverage database.
Bear Market for Mining Equities Since the peak in the summer of 2011, mining shares have traded down significantly Mining Equities Prices Since 2011 Peak +33% (52%) (59%) (68%) Source: Capital IQ. Data as of April 26, 2013. Note: Coal Index represents Dow Jones U.S. Coal Index. Copper Index based on Cowen Securities Investment Banking coverage database.
Gold Equities Have Traded Off Substantially Gold stocks in particular have been battered in recent months Gold Equities Prices Since 2011 Peak GOLD GORO Source: Capital IQ. Data as of April 26, 2013. Note: Light blue denotes major gold producers.
Decline in Equity Financings Mining Equity Issuance Since Over the Past Five Years Proceeds in $B # of deals 773 793 697 412 619 156 Source: Capital IQ as of April 26, 2013. Note: Includes all IPOs and follow-ons since 2008 in the precious metals, diversified metals and coal industries.
Upward Trend in Debt Financings Mining Debt Issuance Over the Past Five Years Proceeds in $B # of deals 142 119 109 35 16 18 Source: Capital IQ as of April 26, 2013. Note: Includes all corporate bonds/notes issued since 2008 in the precious metals, diversified metals and coal industries.
Transition From Equity to Debt Debt Equity Mining Equity & Debt Issuance Over the Past Five Years Proceeds in $B $75.7 $73.4 $68.6 $67.4 21% 39% 52% 66% 79% $21.5 $20.7 61% 15% 48% 78% 34% 85% 22% Source: Capital IQ as of April 26, 2013. Note: Includes all IPOs, follow-ons and corporate bonds/notes issued since 2008 in the precious metals, diversified metals and coal industries.
Royal Gold Franco-Nevada Silver Wheaton Superior Performance of Royalty Companies Since 2008, royalty companies have largely outperformed Royalty Companies Market Caps Over the Past Five Years Royalty Companies Prices Over the Past Five Years Market Cap in $B +68% (46%) (50%) Source: Capital IQ. Data as of April 26, 2013. Note: Royalty Index represents Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton. Note GDXJ commenced trading on November 11, 2009.
Private Equity Investors Traditional Funds Resource Focused Funds CEF Holdings LFM Partners Vulcan Mining
Deal Volume Lower • Precious metals mining M&A volume in North America fell by more than 50% in 2012 compared to 2011 • Value of transactions: $6B (2012) vs. $13B (2011) • # of transactions: 307 (2012) vs. 384 (2011) • Decline driven by impaired CEO confidence and difficult financing environment Market Conditions Volatile • Global economic uncertainty during 2012 led to a decline in commodity prices and a pullback in equity valuations • Macroeconomic growth and European sovereign debt concerns continue to weigh on the markets • Equity capital markets remain challenged, though the ‘right deals’ can get done • Precious metals equities have retraced after summer rally • Significant disconnect between precious metals prices and the underlying equities Juniors Undervalued & Oversupplied • Precious metals equities have retraced after summer rally • Investor fatigue persists given underperformance relative to GLD • Juniors trading at all-time lows vs. bullion • Financing concerns given challenging capital markets • Substantial universe of juniors are ‘available for sale’ and limited number of viable buyers Buyers ‘Wait and See’ • Majors have been quiet given industry-wide trends, including: • Capital and operating cost escalation – Pascua Lama, Tasiast, Pueblo Viejo, Donlin, Hope Bay, Meadowbank • Geopolitical risk – resource expropriation, increased taxes/royalties, worker strikes/protests, military coups, etc. • Negative transaction experience – Kinross/Red Back, Barrick/Equinox, Newmont/Fronteer • Emphasis on shareholder returns – dividends, portfolio rationalization, capital expenditure reductions, etc. • Perception that juniors remain overvalued – quality of technical studies, insufficient drilling/engineering, etc. Recent Activity Picking Up • Focused on projects that have manageable capex and/or are located in favorable/familiar jurisdictions Current Precious Metals M&A Environment
Precedent Transactions – Precious Metals Average premiums(1) have been constant over time, however, recent dislocation has seen premia increase Precious Metals Transactions Since 2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 250% Median: 34% Source: Capital IQ, Company data. Note: Hostile transactions shaded in grey. Includes transactions greater than US$50M. (1) Premia paid based on unaffected stock price 1-day prior to initial announcement.