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European spatial and transport scenarios for the Baltic Region. Scenarios developed in the European Spatial Development Observatory Network (ESPON, DG REGIO) and the on-going review of the European White Paper of Transport (DG TREN) as reference for the Baltic region
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European spatial and transport scenarios for the Baltic Region • Scenarios developed in the European Spatial Development Observatory Network (ESPON, DG REGIO) and the on-going review of the European White Paper of Transport (DG TREN) as reference for the Baltic region • Objective: To provide reference spatial development and transport scenarios for the Baltic area, based on already existing scenarios defined at European level recently
European spatial and transport scenarios for the Baltic Region • Global Trends • European Territorial Scenarios • European Transport Scenarios • Transport Territorial Impacts • Baltic Scenarios
Global Trends and spatial development until 2050 • Europe as a whole for the coming decades Growth in passenger mobility and freight mobility New generation of more specialized vehicles Road as a dominant transport mode, with online pricing and intelligent management systems New rail services in dedicated lines linking major ports and logistics areas Increasing volumes of freight from overseas markets Increasing air trips in a more dense network of airports Stable in energy consumption, substitution fossil fuels with renewal sources • Trends in the Baltic Sea, specific for navigation Maritime traffic increasing in the Baltic Sea Oil transportation will grow significantly especially in the gulf of Finland area New Risk Control Options are scheduled in the near future Increased risks for collision and groundings in the Baltic Sea Winter Navigation may encounter problems in servere winters
Global Trends and spatial development (Wild Cards) • Unlikely events that may have potentially large impacts The development of alternative energy sources, new ICT and transport vehicles, impact of global warming, oil-peak are well known For the Baltic region, the political evolution of Russia and former USSR republics, and the enlargement processes of Europe are of extreme importance The Northeast passage will probably be open in 15-20 years. How will this change flow of goods between Europe and Asia/US west coast?
European Territorial Scenarios • Main policy-scenarios from ESPON based in three paramount political aims Competitiveness Cohesion Sustainability
European Transport Scenarios • Transport-related scenarios defined in TRANSVision study The scenarios are focused in defining alternative path towards a postcarbon socity • TRANSVision scenario forecast are calculated by using TRANSTOOLS as reference for 2010-2030 period Complemented by specific add-hoc models based on results from other models to cover 2030-2050 • Scenarios: Moving alone (increased mobility) Moving together (decoupled mobility) Moving less (reduced mobility) Stop moving (constrained mobility)
The technological path: ”Moving Alone” or Induced Mobility • Scope • Exponential growth of technology: substitution of oil by more efficient and clean energy sources leads to CO2 reductions in the long term. • Technology reaches a “singularity” in 2045, leading to unlimited information (following the exponential increase in computer processing power) and unlimited and cheap energy (from petroleum-based to fusion and solar). • Focus on economic growth • Transport, energy and other mobility-related policies • Transport development follows demand. • Increase of infrastructure stock, for both roads and public transport. • Better management and more intelligent transport systems. • Online pricing is generally available for all transport modes. • European policies are reformed towards a more intensive liberalisation.
The organisational path: “Moving Together” or Decoupled Mobility • Scope • Strong decoupling between economic development and traffic is gradually achieved due to well-balanced policies. Moderate increase in GDP. • CO2 is reduced quickly, but in a harmonious way, without hampering economic development. • Changes in behaviour: policies aiming to modify users and firms’ mobility decisions are effective to some extent. • Transport, energy and other mobility-related policies • Reduction of unnecessary trips thanks to technology (internet shopping, telecommuting, IT convergence). • Better management of infrastructure to improve transport efficiency. • Increase in urban infrastructure stock to encourage short distance trips. • Internalisation of social and environmental impacts of transport activities. • Pricing systems and incentive schemes in transport, including taxation, to encourage long-term behavioural changes. • Land-use policies aimed at reversing the tendency towards urban sprawl help reduce travel needs. • Enlargement of the EU towards the east, the Balkans and Turkey, and close cooperation with all other neighbouring countries.
The behavioural path: “Moving Less” or Reduced Mobility • Scope • Environmental concern: CO2 has to be reduced as much as possible in the shortest time. • Changes in behaviour: policies aiming to modify users and firms’ mobility decisions are effective, complemented by restrictive policies whenever needed. • Transport, energy and other mobility-related policies • Efforts on environmental education to reduce unnecessary mobility. • Pricing and regulation to induce self-organisation in mobility demand. • Better maintenance and management of existing infrastructure, giving priority to public transport. • Moderate increase in local infrastructure, especially in clean public transport. • Strict land-use policies to avoid urban sprawl. • Large tax increases on fossil fuels and subsidies for renewable energy. • Technology development focused mostly on safety and environmental efficiency.
The mandatory path: “Stop Moving” or Constrained Mobility • Scope • Economic failure due to a very slow process of technological implementation and lack of capacity of public administration to undertake structural reforms. The necessity of peak-oil or energy shortages is not felt. • Welfare systems break down partially due to governments’ incapacity to face increasingly expensive pensions and health expenses. Long-term investments on research and infrastructure are reduced, leading to decreasing productivity rates. • Changes in travelling patterns: strong regulation and legislation on mobility with heavy taxation and implementation of expensive carbon credits. • Transport, energy and other mobility-related policies • Very low productivity and very low market implementation of new technologies. • Strong taxation of GHG emissions and lack of non-carbon energy sources, as well as GDP decline, producing a mid-term reduction of traffic. • Pricing and regulation intend to reduce high congestion levels and CO2 levels. • Very strict land-use regulation leads to more compact urbanisation and thus reduces mobility needs. • Increase in local public transport infrastructure. • Little investment in R&D. • Important application of CO2 sequestration facilities to cut down possible causes of global warming.
European Transport Scenarios • Conclusion • These fourscenarios illustrate that there are different paths towards a post-carbon society. It may be possible to achieve higher sustainability and economic growth together, if a balanced development of technology or of social organisation is achieved or if there is a voluntary reduction of mobility.
Transport Territorial Impacts • Three main reference scenarios Baseline 2030 as defined in TRANSVision study Infrastructure enhancement in 2030 (with associated high-growth) Regulatory and pricing scenario in 2030 (with low economic growth) • The scenarios are variant of the moving together scenario from TRANSVision One towards higher economic growth (based on successful public investments in transport infrastructure) One having less economic growth (with less investment but successful regulatory and pricing policies).
Baseline Scenario • The Baseline scenario assumes as policy framework the Revision of Transport White Book 2010-2030. Is a conservative estimate of what could be accomplished
Infrastructure Enhancement Scenario • Are oriented towards new infrastructure provision Based on high growth 2030 scenario defined in TRANSVision study • TEN-T projects completed as well as a number of other projects of relevance to European cohesion • The main objectives of this policy are improving cohesion, accessibility and reducing congestion by completing all the TEN networks and pan-European corridors that are not included in the priority projects • The policy has the effect of increasing total traffic, it is assumed that a higher renewal of the car fleet will be enforced so that average emission ratios are lower
Regulatory and Pricing Scenario • Based on Low Growth 2030 as defined in TRANSVisions study, characterised by a low economic development further emphasized by a negative population development • Low growth occurs because of increasing costs of energy, particularly oil. Europe’s answer to the increasing energy costs is mobility reduction in terms of higher operating costs which reflects the high energy prices • Policies in this scenario are oriented towards taxation, internalisation of transport externalities, and putting incentives for a modal shift towards rail.
Baltic Scenarios • Baltic scenarios based on the territorial cohesion concept • Characteristics of the Baltic territory: • Low population density • Long distances between metropolitan areas • Numerous hardly accessible and peripheral regions • Well developed knowledge based economy • The most developed and the fastest developing countries together • Hardly functional region in economic terms • Strong density of trans-national public and NGO co-operation network
Baltic Scenarios II • Specific macro-regional trends • Baltic Region continues to outperform the rest of the EU but likely to loose global economic weight • Convergence of Baltic countries, Poland, and (with some more uncertainty) Russia to the Nordic levels of prosperity likely to continue • Relative growth of the economic importance of Russia, Poland, and Baltic countries; Nordic share dropping of GDP dropping moderately • Over the next 15 years, demographics benefit the GDP per capita level on the eastern shores of the BSR but then the trend moves into the opposite direction • Moderately positive outlook for the economic prospects of the region • Regional collaboration can become the ‘turbo’ of regional growth, if developments in the EU and/or Russia create the right conditions • The future of the European integration process is the most critical driver of how important Baltic Sea cooperation will be • The most benefits will occur, if the region moves towards a new model of collaboration, more in‐line with the changing external conditions
Baltic Scenarios III • Baseline scenario: Projecting the situation when all major transport infrastructure projects included in the medium- and long-term national investment plans of the BSR countries (and optionally – China, India, Ukraine and Central Asia) are completed • Arctic passage scenario: Projecting the situation when the ice-free waters of the Arctic Sea enable summer season navigation to release saturated south Baltic Sea Region road/rail network from intercontinental traffic • Green transport scenario: Projecting the situation when the EU regulations and rules of the EU neighbouring countries lay ground for developing a network of green multimodal transport corridors as a priority network in the BSR (correspondent to present TEN-T network).
