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Q1 2011 TELUS investor conference call. Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Joe Natale EVP & Chief Commercial Officer Darren Entwistle President & Chief Executive Officer. May 5, 2011. TELUS Forward Looking Statement.
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Q1 2011 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Joe Natale EVP & Chief Commercial Officer Darren Entwistle President & Chief Executive Officer May 5, 2011
TELUS Forward Looking Statement Today's presentation and answers to questions contain statements about expected future events and financial and operating performance of TELUS that are forward-looking. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Company to make assumptions and predictions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that the forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future performance and events to differ materially from that expressed in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly our comments are subject to the disclaimer and qualified by the assumptions (including assumptions for 2011 annual guidance), qualifications and risk factors (including those for semi-annual dividend increases to 2013) referred to in the Management’s discussion and analysis in the 2010 annual report and in the 2011 first quarter report. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual targets and guidance.
Agenda • Wireless and wireline segment review • Consolidated financial review • Updates • Regulatory • Operations • Dividend • Questions and Answers
Q1 2011 wireless financial results Strong revenue and EBITDA growth of over 11% driving strong cash flow growth of 9% 1 Margins on network revenue in Q1/11 and Q1/10 were 45.8% and 45.5%, respectively
Wireless subscriber results Total net adds Postpaid net adds Wireless subscribers 1.2M 65K prepaid 18% 52K 51K 32K postpaid 82% 5.8M Q1-11 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-10 7M total Net additions impacted by loss of Federal Government subscribers
Wireless data revenue $366M $254M $204M Q1-10 Q1-09 Q1-11 Data revenue growth accelerated to 44% driven by strong smartphone adoption
Marketing and retention Record gross adds Higher churn and COA/COR expense reflect increased competition and increased smartphone loading
Blended ARPU analysis Data % of ARPU Voice $57.89 $55.80 17.71 31% 24% 13.14 76% 42.66 69% 40.18 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-10 Q1-11 ARPU up 3.7% y/y as strong data growth more than offsets voice decline
Q1 2011 wireline financial results Wireline results reflect Transactel transaction, continued erosion of legacy services and strong growth in Optik TV 1 Q1-11 Adjusted EBITDA of $419M excludes $16M non-cash gain from TELUS’ acquisition of Transactel
TELUS’ acquisition of Transactel • TELUS increased its economic interest from approx 30 to 51% of Transactel, a business process outsourcing and call centre company with facilities in Central America • Enhances TELUS International’s business process outsourcing capacity, particularly Spanish / English-language capabilities • Allows for multi-site redundancy • Clients include variety of third party MNOs in various industries • Financial results included in wireline segment effective Feb. 1 • Recognized a gain of $16 million on pre-existing minority interest in Q1-11 in “Other operating income” • Economic interest to be increased to 95% in Q2-11 Acquisition complements and diversifies contact centre capabilities
Normalized wireline EBITDA Normalized wireline EBITDA down 4%
TELUS TV subscribers TELUS TV net additions* TELUS TV subscribers* 358K 44K 199K 29K Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-10 Q1-11 Strong momentum continues with TV net adds up 52% y/y and total subscribers up 80% * Includes both IP TV and TELUS Satellite TV subscribers
TELUS high-speed Internet results 18K 16K 15K 3K 3K Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q1-10 Strong growth in HSIA net adds reflects success of enhanced Optik service bundle since launch in June 2010
TELUS network access lines Residential Business 2K Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-10 Q1-11 -8K -33K -50K Residential line losses improved 34% y/y Business line increase reflects gain in wholesale customers
Q1 2011 consolidated financial results Strong revenue and earnings growth driven by wireless 1 Q1-11 Adjusted EBITDA of $970M, up 2.9% excl. $16M non-cash gain from acquisition of Transactel 2 Q1-11 Adjusted EPS of $0.97 for Q1-11 excludes after-tax Transactel gain of $0.04 per share
EPS continuity analysis ($) Transactel gain 1.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.85 - 0.02 0.97 Excl. Trans. gain Q1-10 reported Normalized EBITDA1 Lower tax rates Financing costs Pension & Restr. costs Dep & Amort Higher O/S shares Q1-11 reported Excluding one-time Transactel gain, underlying EPS up 14% 1 Normalized EBITDA excludes pension and restructuring costs, and Transactel gain
Tentative collective agreement reached with TWU • TELUS and TWU agreed to terms of a tentative collective agreement on April 11 • TWU recommending ratification to their membership and will be holding ratification meetings across country until early June • Tentative agreement includes compensation increases of 1.5% in year one, 2% in years two through four and 2.5% in year five • A ratified agreement will enable our team to focus on continued execution of our strategy and corporate priorities for 2011 Tentative agreement is a progressive contract that reflects competitive marketplace and balances needs of team members, customers and shareholders
TELUS to deploy 4G+ wireless LTE • Consistent with our strategy on technology evolution, TELUS announced the planned launch of its wireless 4G+ long-term evolution (LTE) network in 2012 • Construction on TELUS‘ 4G+ LTE network will begin in latter half of 2011 in major urban markets across Canada • TELUS' LTE deployment will use AWS spectrum purchased for $882 million in Industry Canada's auction in 2008 for this purpose • Potential rollout into rural Canada will be dependent on Industry Canada auction of frequencies in 700 MHz spectrum band Investment in LTE urban build is consistent with TELUS' consolidated capital expenditure targets for 2011
700 MHz spectrum auction • 700 MHz spectrum consultation process ongoing – TELUS and other parties filed reply comments on April 6 • Access to 700 MHz for TELUS would support truly innovative broadband applications throughout Canada & bridge digital divide • TELUS most spectrally efficient major carrier in North America on a MHz per pop basis and has need for more capacity to support data growth • Cable companies and regional carriers have financial resources to bid and be successful in an open auction and should not be advantaged by access to any set aside spectrum To ensure that 700 MHz is utilized outside of urban areas there must be a “use it or lose it” build out requirement
2500/2600 MHz spectrum auction • First round comments filed by TELUS and other parties on April 19 • Industry Canada to auction 60 MHz of clawed back spectrum plus additional spectrum in regions (Alberta, Atlantic Canada) where Rogers and Bell, through Inukshuk partnership, did not obtain 2600 MHz spectrum • 2500/2600 MHz spectrum aligns with 3GPP standards for LTE • Rogers and Bell • Currently have a de facto Canadian monopoly and head start in launching mobile services in this band • Should be restricted from bidding on clawed back spectrum to allow entry • Should be capped individually and/or together due to co-owned Inukshuk holdings Access to 2500/2600 MHz spectrum would allow TELUS to meet anticipated data demand in urban locations
Industry vertical integration update • Recent CRTC decisions support pre-existing principle of programming content non-exclusivity on reasonable commercial terms • Regulatory measures taken in U.S. for Comcast acquisition of NBC Universal set a good precedent • June 2011 public policy hearing on effects of consolidation and vertical integration in Canadian broadcasting industry • TELUS and the public believe CRTC needs to implement measures to effectively address and deter any anti-competitive behaviour by carriers from content ownership in a timely manner • Safeguards prohibiting carriage exclusivity and ensuring access to content on fair terms (price and packaging conditions) are essential to ensure sustainable competition • CRTC’s recent decisions reinforce pre-existing principle • that consumers need protection from undue preference • by carriers who own content
Q1 2011 summary • Wireless • Double digit revenue and EBITDA growth reflecting outstanding ARPU growth of 3.7% • Accelerating smartphone adoption driving data revenue growth of 44% • Wireline • Revenue growth driven by strong data growth of 11% • Continued strong TV and HSIA adds and improving residential NAL losses reflecting success of Optik services and marketing Revenue and earnings growth of 6.5% and 19% driven by wireless. Annualized dividend raised 4.8% to $2.20 per share
Strong smartphone adoption driving data growth Smartphone gross sales (as % of postpaid gross sales) • Smartphone adoption continues to accelerate • Now represents 54% of postpaid gross loads • Represents over 70% of postpaid retention units compared to less than 1/2 a year ago 54% 46% 33% 1Q11 1Q10 4Q10 Smartphone penetration (% of postpaid cumulative base) 38% 33% 22% 1Q11 1Q10 4Q10 Smartphone base increased 76% y/y to 2.2M Data revenue growth increased by 44% y/y
Continued Optik momentum, Future Friendly Home High-speed Internet TELUS TV Residential NALs 66K 60K 18K 53K 16K 32K 32K 15K 48K 44K 3K 38K 29K 29K -33K -37K -39K -50K -51K Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 TV & HSIA loading more than offset residential NAL losses for third consecutive quarter
Providing shareholder clarity on dividend growth model* • Over last eight years, TELUS has delivered eight increases in the dividend and paid out $4 billion • 4.8% dividend increase to 55 cents quarterly – July 4, 2011 • Consistent dividend payout guideline of 55-65% of sustainable earnings • Announce intention to continue semi-annual declarations to 2013 – May and November • Expectation of circa 10% annual increase in dividend through 2013 Subject to board decisions taking into account financial outlook * See forward looking statement caution.
Appendix – free cash flow 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 C$ millions Adjusted EBITDA (excludes Transactel gain) 943 970 Capex (311) (409) Net Employee Defined Benefit Plans Expense (Recovery) (3) (9) Employer Contributions to Employee Defined Benefit Plans (45) (235) Interest expense paid (38) (61) Cash Income Taxes and Other (251) (66) Non-cash portion of share-based compensation 8 3 Restructuring payments (net of expense) (49) (23) Free Cash Flow (before share-based compensation payment) 254 170 Share Based Compensation Paid (8) (7) Free Cash Flow (per current public guidance methodology) 162 247 - Non-voting shares issued 17 Dividends (150) (169) Dividends reinvested (DRIP) 21 54 - Acquisitions and other (50) Working Capital and Other (178) (41) Funds Available for debt redemption 77 (164) Net Issuance (Repayment) of debt (72) 170 Increase (Decrease) in cash 5 6
Appendix – definitions • EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization • Capital intensity: capital expenditures divided by total revenue • Cash flow: EBITDA less capex • Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring costs, net employee defined benefit plans expense, cash interest received and excess of share-based compensation expense over share-based compensation payments, subtracting the non-cash gain on Transactel, cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, restructuring payments and employer contributions to employee defined benefit plans. • Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often presented as a percentage of network revenue