2012 MUNICIPAL AND CITY LEVEL POVERTY ESTIMATES IN ARMM

1. 2012 MUNICIPAL AND CITY LEVEL POVERTY ESTIMATES IN ARMM By Driesch Lucien R. Cortel Philippine Statistics Authority

2. OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGY RESULTS AND DISCUSSION CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

3. Poverty in the country remains a challenge for many Filipinos. INTRODUCTION + Unmanaged Huge Inequality Among Income Levels Regions Sectors Population Growth • At present, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has been producing national, regional and provincial level official poverty estimates.

4. A growing demand from the local government to have city and municipal estimates INTRODUCTION Problem Use of small area estimation (SAE) at the municipal and city level Solution Regular generation of small area poverty statistics and adoption of an improved official SAE methodology Action

5. METHODOLOGY • The main idea of SAE is to merge information from different types of data sources to come up with small area poverty estimates. 2012 Family Income and Expenditure Survey PREDICTORS Time Invariant and Averages at the Municipal/ Barangay Level Variables 2010 Census of Population and Housing  + MODEL BUILDING Using the Poisson Modeling Approach, the model should be robust with acceptable model adequacy; with significant regression coefficients; and, parsimonious model Indirect Estimation of Poverty Statistics Generation of the 2012 City and Municipal Level Poverty Count based on SAE 

6. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION • Most of the regions in Mindanao have evident cases of high poverty incidence, especially in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). Lanao del Sur Maguindanao Basilan Sulu ARMM has… 5 Provinces Tawi-tawi 2 Cities 116 Municipalities

7. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Lanao del Sur 3.26 Million Population as of 2010 538,981 Households as of 2010 Basilan Maguindanao Sulu Tawi-tawi • The number of poor in the region was determined using the Poisson Modelling Approach.

8. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION • Using the Poisson modelling approach, there were five predictors in the model with a Psuedo-R² of 74.3%. Households that has at least 1 member who is an overseas Filipino worker (OFW) ₽ Financial establishments in the municipality with at least 100 employees Households that that has a household head with at least college education Barangay that is a part of a town/city proper Manufacturing establishments outside the barangay but within 2 kms

9. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION • Figure 1. Percentage distribution of the municipalities and cities in ARMM based on poverty counts

10. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION • Table 1. Percentage distribution of the municipalities and cities in ARMM based on coefficient of variation. RELIABLE NOT RELIABLE Unreliable but with acceptable measures of reliability

11. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS • Small area estimation, using the Poisson Modeling Approach, can be used successfully to produce poverty counts at the municipal and city levels. • Almost 87% (around 102 out of 118) of the generated municipal and city level estimates have acceptable measures of reliability. • The generation of poverty counts is advantageous for policy makers since identification of areas that have high magnitude of poor population aids the government to establish programs for the right beneficiaries.

12. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS • Since the technique generates poverty counts, this approach could be explored to produce poverty incidences to be compared with municipal and city level estimates generated from the SAE of Poverty Project of PSA. • The technique could be further explored so that it could be used for other relevant indicators like employment, infant and maternal health, and nutrition statistics.

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