Communicating Weather Information to Targeted Lay Publics

1. Forecast and Forecast Dissemination for the Mount Washington Observatory Communicating Weather Information to Targeted Lay Publics

2. The Mount Washington Observatory • The mount Washington observatory is a Private non-profit scientific and educational institution. Its mission is to advance understanding of the natural systems that create the Earth's weather and climate, by maintaining its mountaintop weather station, conducting research and educational programs and interpreting the heritage of the Mount Washington region

3. Who is the Lay Public to whom we disseminate our forecasts: • For the most part our lay public are recreational tourists drawn from a pool of about 70 million people that live within a days drive of the summit (both US and Canada). • 7-8 Million annual visitors to The White Mountain national forest within which we are located • 250 thousand annual visitors to the summit of Mount Washington • 40-50 thousand hikers to the summit, mostly in the summer, but lots in the winter too. • Primary activities include: Hiking, Backpacking, Mountaineering, and Skiing. • Question: How many people actually use our forecast?

4. Our Forecasts • Our primary forecasting goal is to provide a 36 hour high elevations (5000-6300 ft) outlook that can be used as a decision making tool to help users make informed decisions about their saftey. • This outlook includes: Sky condition (including obscurations), liklihood of precipitation (but not QPF and not probablisitic), temperature range, wind range • It also includes a current conditions statement as a reference point for users

5. Forecasting format • Summits weather discussion: Summary of synoptic, regional, and meso/micro scale weather features for the next 36 hours. Intended to be a plain language explanation of why and how the weather will change • Traditional “today, tonight, tomorrow” forecast using our own wording conventions

6. Example Forecast Discussion

7. Sample 'Packaged' Forecast

8. Dissemination • Multiple daily radio shows (local and statewide) • Live morning radio call to back-country huts that are base camps for most hikers and climbers. (AMC) • Weekend morning TV show • Our own website, from which many source pull our data. Local hotels, B&Bs, USFS, AMC, etc. • Weather information kiosks distributed around the mountains at base locations.

9. Key challenges • Creating concise but meaningful forecasts that are easy to remember without being too simplistic. • Qualifying(or quantifying) uncertainty and inherent variability within our forecasts. Ex: Fog or no fog? 500Ft difference in the LCL could mean 100 miles of visibility versus 75ft. • Wording. Do people understand our wording? They don't see it anywhere else... • Communicating complex topics. Ex: Wind force varies with the square of the velocity, how do we explain the difference between the 50 mph wind and the 80 mph wind? Also winchill. • Weather as an attraction. This is good and bad.

10. Key Challenges • Choice. People choose to come here, the weather doesn't come to them. • Borderline days. How to communicate the degree of danger that still exists even though it isn't as extreme as it can be. • Trying to reduce weather related deaths and rescues. • Of the 138 deaths on the mountain all but 30 are weather related. (Hypothermia, Drowning, ice fall, avalanche, falls, and air plane crashes) • Lightning: There has never been a lightning fatality on the summit, but this doesn't mean that there won't be! • Lastly, as a small non-profit, funds and resources to do the work we would like to do.

11. A few things we've learned • It is valuable to be involved directly with weather education. • Every mediated forecast is an opportunity at interpretation and education