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Verification of the LM at IMGW

Verification of the LM at IMGW. Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska, Andrzej Mazur Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. Verification of surface parameters using 56 SYNOP stations. Contents:. Verification of precipitation using 308 rain gauges.

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Verification of the LM at IMGW

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  1. Verification of the LM at IMGW Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska, Andrzej Mazur Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  2. Verification of surface parameters using 56 SYNOP stations Contents: Verification of precipitation using 308 rain gauges Verification of upper-air parameters using 3 TEMP stations. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  3. Verification of surface parameters using 56 SYNOP stations Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Poland Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  4. The results of verification surface continuous parameters from January 2005 to June 2005 will be presented. Following meteorological elements were analysed: 2m temperature, 2m dew point temperature, sea level pressure, 10m wind speed. • The meteorological variables forecasted by the model were compared with synoptic data from 56 Polish synoptic stations. Mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated using 12 forecast range (every 6 hours) for a 72 hour forecast starting at 00 UTC. The error estimators were calculated for all stations and for the whole country area. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  5. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  6. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  7. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  8. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  9. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  10. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  11. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  12. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  13. 1. The 2 m temperature: A monthly and seasonal variation for the scores of temperature is observed. The mean error is negative in the winter and positive in spring and the summer. In the summer we observed the large diurnal amplitude of mean error and amplitude of RMSE with maximum value during a day. 2. The dew point temperature: The monthly variation of mean error is observed.The bias is negative in January, positive in the summer and diurnal amplitude in the spring. The RMSE increased with the forecast time. Conclusions Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  14. 3. The sea level pressure: The RMSE increased with the forecast time. The error is smaller in the summer and higher in the winter. The ME is quite smooth (about zero in the winter and negative in the summer). 4. The 10 m wind speed: The ME is mostly positive and increases with the forecast time. The RMSE is quite smooth, bigger in the winter than the summer (with daily amplitude in the summer). Conclusions Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  15. Verification of precipitation using 308 rain gauges Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Poland Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  16. LOCATION OF RAIN GAUGESTATIONS 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 The results of verification of24-h accumulated precipitation from January 2004 to June 2005are presented below. For precipitation we calculated indices from the contingency table for 24-h accumulated forecast data and data from 308 rain gauge stations for 3 day forecast range (1-day, 2-day, 3-day). For verification of precipitation following thresholds of 0.5, 1, 2.5, 5, 10, 20, 25, 30 mm were used. For each threshold the following scores were calculated: FBI (Frequency bias index), POD (Probability of detection of event), PON (Probability of detection of non-event), FAR (False alarm rate), TSS (True skill statistics), HSS (Heidke skill score), ETS (Equitable skill score). Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  17. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  18. Indices for 24h accumulated precipitation, May 2004 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 0.5 1 2.5 5 10 15 20 25 100 80 60 40 20 0 0.5 1 2.5 5 10 15 20 25 I day POD PON % II day FAR HSS ETS 100 80 60 % III day 40 20 0 0.5 1 2.5 5 10 15 20 25 THRESHOLDS [mm] Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  19. Indices for 24h accumulated precipitation, May 2005 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 0.5 1 2.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 100 80 60 40 20 0 0.5 1 2.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 I day POD PON % II day FAR HSS ETS 100 80 60 % III day 40 20 0 0.5 1 2.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 THRESHOLDS [mm] Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  20. THRESHOLD 0.5 [mm] 3 2.5 2 FBI 1.5 1 0.5 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC FREQUENCY BIAS INDEX, JANUARY - DECEMBER 2004 I day II day III day THRESHOLD 10 [mm] FBI MONTHS Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  21. FREQUENCY BIAS INDEX, JANUARY - JUNE 2005 THRESHOLD 0.5 [ mm] 3 2.5 2 FBI 1.5 1 0.5 0 I day JAN FEB MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE II day III day THRESHOLD 10 [ mm] 3 2.5 2 FBI 1.5 1 0.5 0 JAN FEB MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE MONTHS Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  22. THRESHOLD 0.5 [ mm] 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 100 POD 80 PON 60 % FAR 40 HSS 20 ETS 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 100 80 60 40 20 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC INDICES FOR 24h ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION, JANUARY - DECEMBER 2004 % MONTHS Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  23. THRESHOLD 10.0 [ mm] 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 100 POD 80 PON 60 % FAR 40 HSS 20 ETS 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 100 80 60 40 20 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC INDICES FOR 24h ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION, JANUARY - DECEMBER 2004 I day II day % III day MONTHS Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  24. THRESHOLD 0.5 [mm] 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 100 80 POD PON 60 % FAR 40 HSS 20 ETS 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN INDICES FOR 24h ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION, JANUARY - JUNE 2005 I day II day 100 80 60 % III day 40 20 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN MONTHS Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  25. INDICES FOR 24h ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION, JANUARY - JUNE 2005 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  26. 1. The model overestimates the amount of precipitation. 2. The precipitation forecast quality in the period from January to June in 2005 are better than in 2004. 3. The plots of indices for 24-h accumulated precipitation for threshold 0.5 mm in 2005 show smaller variability than in 2004. 4. The quality of the forecast does not deteriorate significantly in subsequent days of the forecast. Conclusions Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  27. Verification of upper-air parameters using 3 TEMP stations. Andrzej Mazur Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Poland Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  28. Subject: Monthly mean ME/RMSE at standard pressure levels (1000, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250 and 200 hPa)... of height, temperature, wind velocity and relative humidity... at three Polish upper-air stations: Leba, Legionowo, Wroclaw Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  29. Temperature ME (observed-predicted) - Leba station Temperature ME (observed-predicted) - Legionowo station Temperature ME (observed-predicted) - Wroclaw station Left - year 2003 Right - year 2004 Forecast: +12 hours Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  30. Wind speed ME (observed-predicted) - Leba station Wind speed ME (observed-predicted) - Legionowo station Wind speed ME (observed-predicted) - Wroclaw station Left - year 2003 Right - year 2004 Forecast: +12 hours Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  31. Standard level height ME (observed-predicted) - Leba station Left - year 2003 Right - year 2004 Forecast: +24 hours Forecast: +36 hours Forecast: +48 hours Forecast: +60 hours Forecast: +12 hours Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  32. Relative humidity ME (observed-predicted) - Leba station Left - year 2003 Right - year 2004 Forecast: +24 hours Forecast: +36 hours Forecast: +48 hours Forecast: +60 hours Forecast: +12 hours Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  33. CONCLUSIONS • Forecasts are “surprisingly” good as far as temperature and wind speed are concerned (ME about ±1° and ±1m/s, respectively). • Model still seems to be “too wet” (ME about 30%, in extreme case - relative error ~50%). • However, this looks like it improved, comparing results for 2003 with these for 2004 • The quality of forecast - which is naturally expected tendency - decreases monotonously with time - especially for relative humidity. For other parameters this tendency is not so clearly seen. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

  34. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Warsaw, Poland

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