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DEDICATED TO MAKING A DIFFERENCE

DEDICATED TO MAKING A DIFFERENCE. Mobility 2030. Meeting the challenges to sustainability. Overview Presented by Masayuki Sasanouchi Toyota Motor Corporation Buenos Aires Dec 16, 2004. The Sustainable Mobility Project. Global collaboration. Mobility, fundamental nature of humankind,.

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DEDICATED TO MAKING A DIFFERENCE

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  1. DEDICATED TO MAKING A DIFFERENCE Mobility 2030 Meeting the challenges to sustainability Overview Presented by Masayuki Sasanouchi Toyota Motor Corporation Buenos Aires Dec 16, 2004 The Sustainable Mobility Project

  2. Global collaboration

  3. Mobility, fundamental nature of humankind,

  4. Mobility 2030 • Defines “sustainable mobility” and provides indicators for measuring it • Provides a frank assessment of outlook if present trends continue • Proposes seven goals for improving outlook • Describes the potential contribution of vehicle technologies and fuels • Identifies factors that ultimately will determine extent to which goals are realized

  5. Mobility 2030 • Defines “sustainable mobility” and provides indicators for measuring it • Provides a frank assessment of outlook if present trends continue • Proposes seven goals for improving outlook • Describes the potential contribution of vehicle technologies and fuels • Identifies factors that ultimately will determine extent to which goals are realized

  6. Sustainable mobility The ability to meet the needs of society to move freely, gain access, communicate, trade and establish relationships without sacrificing other essential human or ecological values today or in the future.

  7. Indicators • Access to mobility • User costs • Travel time • Reliability and comfort • Safety • Security • Greenhouse gas emissions • Impact on environment and public well-being • Resource use • Impact on public revenues and expenditures • Equity Implications • Prospective rate of return to private business Mobility Users Society as a whole Mobility Providers

  8. Outlook if present trends continue“We can’t live without mobility; but can we live with it?”

  9. Mobility 2030’s conclusion regarding outlook When factoring in all the indicators, it appears that today’s system of mobility is not sustainable. Nor is it likely to become so if present trends continue. Mobility 2030, p. 58

  10. Seven goals for improving the sustainability of mobility • Reduce conventional emissions from transport to levels where they do not constitute a significant public health concern anywhere in the world • Limit GHG emissions from transport to sustainable levels • Reduce the number of transport-related deaths and injuries worldwide • Reduce transport-related noise • Mitigate traffic congestion • Narrow “mobility opportunity divides” • Preserve and enhance mobility opportunities available to the general population

  11. Limit transport-related GHG emissionsReference case projections – major regional grouping

  12. Reference case emissions – by region and country

  13. Reference case projections – mode

  14. Strategic elements are illustrated by “ASIF” identity Transport-related GHG emissions = A*S*I*F Activity (volume of passenger and freight travel) Structure (shares by mode, utilization factors, and vehicle type) Intensity (fuel use per unit of vehicle activity) Fuel type (GHG characteristics of fuel used)

  15. Determinants of “A” and “S” Transport demand characteristics – volume, mix, utilization

  16. Determinants of “I” and “F” Vehicle and fuel characteristics – potential, rates of adoption, in-use performance

  17. Well to Wheel CO2 Emission

  18. Focus of SMP members’ expertise Road Transportation

  19. Assessment of potential for vehicle technologies and fuels to limit GHG emissions from road vehicles Even if implemented worldwide, diesels and hybrid ICEs fueled with conventional gasoline and diesel fuel, or fuel cells fueled by natural gas-derived hydrogen, can no more than slow the growth in road transport CO2 emissions during the period 2000-2050. Only the use of carbon-neutral hydrogen in fuel cells and advanced biofuels in ICE-powered vehicles can largely or totally offset the growth in CO2 emissions produced by the growth in road travel during the period 2000-2050.

  20. Call for action Important progress can be made during the next two or three decades. Prior to 2030, where economically practical and politically acceptable, SMP members believe that the following actions aimed at “bending the transport-related GHG emissions curve downward” should be undertaken: • The energy efficiency of transport vehicles should be improved consistent with customer acceptance and cost-effectiveness. • The technological foundation should be laid for the eventual elimination of the effects of fossil carbon in transport fuel.... • Where new fuel infrastructures are required to permit the eventual elimination of the effects of fossil carbon in transport fuel, planning should be undertaken and, if practical, construction should begin.

  21. Case study

  22. Cost Comparison of Auto Technology

  23. Mobility 2030’s conclusion: • Mobility can be made sustainable, but . . . • There is no single “magic” technological solution; portfolio of solutions required • It will take longer than three decades • It will require coordinated efforts, starting now, by all elements of society – business, government, public • It cannot be achieved without the active involvement of the developing world

  24. Backup slides

  25. What are “well-to-wheels” emissions? Well-to-Tank (WTT) Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) Well-to-Wheel (WTW) + =

  26. Workshops Stakeholder Dialogues Brussels Paris Prague Davos Beijing Aspen Washington D.C. Shanghai Delhi Mexico City Manila Sao Paulo Capetown Global dialogue Tokyo Nagoya

  27. Assurance group • Advice on quality and integrity of substance and process • Members • Rt Hon Simon Upton (Chair) – New Zealand • Mr. David Ashley – Australia • Professor John Heywood – USA • Professor Peter Jones – Great Britain • Professor Suzana Kahn Ribiero – Brazil • Profesor Martin Wachs – USA • Professor Akio Morishima – Japan

  28. How significant are transport GHG emissions? (Data for 2000) Source: IEA WEO 2002; SMP calculations

  29. Projected growth in real per capita income

  30. Projected growth in personal transport activity

  31. Projected growth in freight transport activity

  32. Source: IEA While conventional public transport systems will continue to play a vital role, should develop new mobility systems • Systems should combine flexibility provided by private vehicle with cost and efficiency characteristics of public transport • Goal should be to fit characteristics of mobility systems to the needs and desires of people rather than the reverse • Bus Rapid Transit systems • Advanced paratransit • Shared-use vehicle services (car sharing) • Future fully automated systems

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