Trends in World Food and Nutrition: Implications for International Assistance

1. Trends in World Food and Nutrition: Implications for International Assistance APO KUNIO TSUBOTA

2. Remarkable progress despite doubled population World Population projection (UN) 2015 7,197 million 2050 8,918 Population:million, DES: Kcal/day, GDP:US$ (1995 constant), life expectancy: year

3. Hunger: Declined but with considerable regional variation Undernourished population in Developing Regions (million) 504 600 500 267 400 Millions 300 89 54 45 200 241 284 100 1969-71 180 1979-81 0 1990-92 53 East and South 33 East Asia South Asia 1995-97 Latin America and Near East and Sub-Saharan Africa the Caribbean North Africa

4. Projection for 2030Kcal per caput per day

5. Number of Undernourished 2030

6. Composition of food :developing countries

7. Projection for 2030Annual crop production growth,%

8. Crop yield projection 2030

9. MiIlennium Goals highlight poverty & hunger

10. WFS Target unlikely to be met

11. Widening Gap: Dietary energy intake by country group 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 KCal/Day/pc 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1961 1970 1980 1990 1999 Source: FAO Least Developed Low-Income World

12. Poverty and hunger in 1970 and 2000 Improved on average but hotspots left behind Calorie intake/caput 3000 East Asia L-America 2000 S-E Asia S-Asia 2000 S-S Africa 1970 GDP/caput

13. Who are suffering from hunger?

14. Who are left behind?Poverty/hunger factors interlocked

15. Agriculture offers a majority of workplaces in developing countries

16. But rough road ahead… • agriculture and rural development remain important for poverty and hunger reduction but tasks ahead seem more complicated and difficult than ever because: • Hotspots are concentrating more on the specific regions/ specific groups of people, • Productivity gap is widening as technology advances, • Global market tends to penalize poor farmers more, • International support is declining, and inter alia, • Fundamentals for growth have not been generated yet

17. Productivity differences widen due to technological development

18. World Commodity Prices

19. Green revolution visited East and South-East Asia but not fully South Asia and at all yet Africa 3.50 East & South East Asia 3.00 2.50 South Asia 2.00 Grain Yield: ton/ha 1.50 Sub-Sahara & South Africa 1.00 0.50 0.00 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

20. ODA for Agriculture has been declining both in value and % 40,000 50% 45% 35,000 40% 30,000 35% 25,000 30% 20,000 25% US Millions 20% 15,000 15% 10,000 10% 5,000 5% 0 0% 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Agricultural ODA Share of Agriculture in total

22. Most successful countries: Stories vary

23. Strategy for effective assistance(for SS Africa, SW Asia) Make best effort for peace and social stability Avoid investment assistance that can be destructed by the civil strife and bad governance and policies Concentrate more on capacity building of rural poor through HRD, R&D, and extension More efforts to increase local staples/livestock (research,TA) Strengthen group activities and social safety net through community development Encourage knowledge sharing among themselves for generating new, active, self-relying mind-set. Utilize more non-governmental channels including NGOs

25. Strategy for effective assistance(for other developing regions) Encourage economic growth, market reform diversification of rural activities and Promote better processing and marketing TA for reducing risks such as avian influenza Concentrate more on capacity building of rural poor through HRD, R&D, and extension Strengthen group activities and social safety net through community development. Promote sustainable agricultural practices Improve rural infrastructure Utilize more non-governmental channels including NGOs and private sectors

26. It is humankind that is responsible for having imposed hunger on itself for so long, but humankind is also capable of eliminating this burden (SOFA 2000) FIN APO：Tsubota