Arctic Climate Science Priorities Workshop

1. Arctic Climate Science Priorities Workshop Terrestrial Studies (Hydrology) Don Cline National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center Hydrologic Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services National Weather Service, NOAA U.S. Department of Commerce

2. Outline • NOAA Cryosphere Initiative • FY06 baseline assessment to integrate and improve NOAA’s cryosphere science and operations • Arctic Hydrology and the NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center • Airborne Snow Survey Program • National Snow Analyses • NASA Cold Land Processes • Develop science, technology, and application infrastructure necessary to support a future satellite mission to measure hydrologic properties of snow on land, ice sheets, and sea ice

3. NOAA Cryosphere Initiative • FY06 PPBES Baseline Assessment • “Towards One NOAA: A Programmatic Plan to Integrate and Improve NOAA’s Cryosphere Science and Operations” • Requested by NOAA’s Office of Program, Planning, and Integration and NOAA’s Goal 3 (Weather and Water) Team • Produced by NOHRSC (NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services), October 2003 • Assessment based on FY04 Programmatic Framework/Budget • Major Findings • The cryosphere spans all of NOAA’s mission goals and cross-cutting priorities, and involves all five mission strategies. • Nearly 50 activities/budget-lines and 17 mission-goal and goal-wide programs in 5 NOAA line offices are involved in some aspect of the cryosphere • Total estimated input capacity (including portion of satellite acquisitions and services programs) = $152M per year • Without satellite programs = $20M per year

4. NOAA Cryosphere Initiative • NOAA Cryosphere Capabilities and Capacities • Ground, airborne, and satellite monitoring of snow-cover extent, depth, and water content • Modeling, analysis, and prediction of snowpack formation, evolution, and melt • River and flood forecasting, including river ice and snowmelt floods • Monitoring and prediction of lake and sea ice • Winter weather forecasting, including general snowfall, blizzards, and ice-storms • Provision of winter storm watches and warnings, transportation advisories • Basic and applied science on cold-region ecosystems, climate, weather, and hydrology • Infusion of cold-regions science and technology into operations, particularly in areas of remote sensing, modeling, and data assimilation • Several benefits could be realized from improved organization of cryosphere science and operations

5. NOAA Cryosphere Initiative • Missing Required Capabilities • Observe Frozen Soil Properties • Observe River Ice Properties • Conduct Retrospective Analyses of Snow and Frozen Ground Conditions • Capabilities with Insufficient Capacity to Meet Existing Requirements • Observe Snow Properties • Observe Lake Ice Properties • Observe Sea Ice Properties • Develop Advanced Modeling and Data Assimilation Systems • Develop Advanced Observing Systems • Produce Numerical Model Output • Produce Analyses and Forecast Products and Guidance • Evaluate Performance of Analyses and Forecast Products (Verification)

6. NOAA Cryosphere Initiative • Outcome of FY06 Baseline Assessment • No formal improvement of programmatic organization of cryosphere science and operations. • Recommendation to form a NOAA Cryosphere Program within PPBES framework was considered but not implemented • Some specific recommendations were advanced by existing Programs • Considerations for Arctic Climate Science • Arctic Climate Science fundamentally cross-cuts NOAA’s cryosphere science and operations capabilities • Baseline assessment may be useful resource to help identify relevant agency requirements, activities, and capabilities • No plans at this time to rekindle Cryosphere Initiative for FY08 or beyond • Welcome comments on relevance, importance of such an effort to Arctic Climate Science

7. NWS Operational Cold-Regions Hydrology • Airborne Snow Survey Program • Operational snow water equivalent observing system • Used throughout coterminous U.S. • Since 1980 • Low-flying aircraft measure attenuation of terrestrial gamma radiation by water in snow • Initiated Alaska surveys in 2002 • Approx. 200 flight lines • Annual survey each Spring • Part of NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) • Augments AK SNOTEL network (~40 stations) and snow course network (~200 sites) • Advantages include spatially integrated average and no influence of snow/ice conditions Considerations:Network Expansion, More Frequent Surveys

8. NWS Operational Cold-Regions Hydrology • National Snow Analyses • High-resolution gridded snow hydrology products • Snow Water Equivalent • Snow Depth • Snow Density • Snow Surface Temperature • Snow Average Temperature • Snow Melt • Sublimation • Snow Wetness • Snow Modeling and Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) • All operationally available ground, airborne, and satellite snow observations • Gridded data products archived at NSIDC, NCDC Users NWS NOAA Federal Agencies Tribal Agencies State Agencies Private Sector Academia • Considerations • Expansion of NSA domain to include Alaska, North America, Northern Hemisphere. • 30-year Reanalysis

9. NASA Cold Land Processes • Cold Land Processes Working Group • NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program • Develop the science, technology, and application infrastructure necessary to support a future satellite mission to measure snow properties • est. 2000, ~14 Workshops to date • 200+ participants from numerous federal and state agencies, universities, and international participation • Major Activities • Science and technology studies • Field Experiments • Mission Planning

10. NASA Cold Land Processes • Cold Land Processes Experiments (CLPX- I, II, III) • Focus is on developing microwave remote sensing capabilities for snow properties and integrating with hydrologic and atmospheric modeling • CLPX-I was a large-scale two-year (2002-2003) experiment in Colorado • Comprehensive ground, airborne, and satellite remote sensing data collection over several multi-scale nested study areas • Intensive in situ snow measurements for ground validation • CLPX-II is currently being planned for 2006 (or 2007) in Alaska • Currently considering three study areas • Kuparuk River Basin (North Slope), Chena River Basin (near Fairbanks), Anchor River Basin (Kenai Peninsula) • Objective is to conduct frequent repeat airborne radar and coincident ground surveys beginning in fall and continuing through winter and break-up • CLPX-III is in early stages of planning for 2008 or 2009 in US/Canada • Mid-continental latitudinal transect from Minnesota to Churchill Manitoba, possibly continuing northward into Canadian Arctic • Objectives include year-round effort to include summer soil moisture and spring/fall seasonal transitions

11. NASA Cold Land Processes • Cold Land Processes Pathfinder Mission (CLPP) • Snow Water Storage on Land, Ice Sheets, and Sea Ice • First high-resolution global sampling of the water content of snow to explore the variability of snow in the global water cycle and its consequences for water resources and climate • Experimental satellite mission to be proposed to NASA’s Earth System Science Pathfinder Program this year • Mission Concept • Dual-frequency radar (Ku- and C-band), 100-m resolution • Dual-frequency radiometer (K- and Ka-band), 7 and 4-km resolution • 40-km swath, 3-9 day repeat interval • Science Drivers • Snow is a significant storage component of the fresh water cycle, affects weather and climate, is a critical fresh water resource in many mountainous regions and surrounding lowlands, and is frequently responsible for loss of life and property due to flooding. • Snow water storage is highly variable in space and time; while not well understood, evidence indicates it is changing in significant ways • CLPP Team • PI: Cline (NOAA) • JPL, GSFC, DOD/CRREL, USFS, Env. Canada, U. Alaska, U. California, U. Colorado, Colo. State, U. Kansas, U. Michigan, U. Washington, U. Innsbruck, Helsinki U. Tech.

12. Arctic Climate Science Priorities Workshop Terrestrial Studies (Hydrology) Don Cline National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center Hydrologic Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services National Weather Service, NOAA U.S. Department of Commerce