Demonstrating the Value-added of an Independent School Education

1. Demonstrating the Value-added of anIndependent School Education Jefferson Burnett(burnett@nais.org)NAIS Independent School Chairpersons Association, April 18, 2008

2. Overview • Looking at Our World from the Outside/In, How Do External Factors Shape Our Environment, Experience, and Reality? • How do these relate to/connect with a school’s mission, what it does to implement the mission, the outcomes…its value-added? • How do we manage those external factors to ensure the long-term institutional sustainability? • Our World (External Factors) • Economy • Competition • Demographics • Public Perceptions of Independent Schools • What This Tells Us and How We Enhance Our Value-added • Case studies • Relevancy

3. Pop Quiz • Pop Quiz Question #1A parent is shopping for schools, stops by to see you, and asks you this question: What is your school’s value-added? • Pop Quiz Question #2A parent is shopping for schools and stops by a public magnet /charter/virtual school and asks this question: What is your school’s value-added? • Pop Quiz Question #3How do the response differ? • Pop Quiz Question #4Is your school’s value-added proposition good enough in today’s climate? • My family is facing a decision about my…son. He is in a G/T class in our neighborhood elementary school, and he’s been offered admission at a…local private school…Although we realize that there are many factors that can go into the plus/minus columns of both choices, we were wondering how to evaluate the two based strictly on academic rigor…how can we form an opinion of which option is “better” academically? AK from VA (WPost Feb 08)

4. Our World: Trends Our World: TrendsThe Economy

5. The Economy • Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke acknowledged for the first time that a U.S. recession is possible because homebuilding, employment and consumer spending will deteriorate. ``It now appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly,'' Bernanke told Congress's Joint Economic Committee today. (4/2/08 Bloomberg) • Merrill Lynch & Company, the investment bank, posted a loss on Thursday and announced that it would lay off 10 percent of its work force or about 4,000 jobs by the end of the year. (4/17/08 NYT) • Continental Airlines posted a first-quarter loss on Thursday, while a rival, Southwest Airlines, said that its profit fell sharply in the period. Both carriers cited rising fuel costs as the reason for the lower results.Southwest also pulled back on growth plans as a weak economy and record fuel costs took a toll on the discount carrier.//The parent company of American Airlines, the AMR Corporation, posted a $328 million first-quarter loss as surging fuel prices sent the industry into a downturn (4/17/08 NYT) • Wall Street analysts are suggesting the breakup of General Electric after an unusual earnings shortfall. 4/17/08 NYT) So: What are the implications of a bad economy for independent schools? • Job layoffs = fewer applicants, more requests for financial aid • Higher energy costs = increased operational costs, higher tuition or fewer services • Inflation = all goods and services increase in price, higher tuition or fewer services • Other… Not to be depressing, but…

6. Economic TrendsTuition increases, income divide • Nationally, median tuition for 1st grade increased 31.3% in inflation-adjusted dollars between 1995-96 and 2005-06, which includes a 16.5% increase between 2000-01 and 2005-06. ~ NAIS Statistics • For 12th grade, median tuition increased 27.6% in the decade between 1995-96 and 2005-06, including a 14.5% increase between 2000-01 and 2005-06. ~ NAIS Statistics • Rich are getting richer…middle class squeezed…what is the middle class?

7. Dual vs. single earners Disposable income Demo-EcoTrendsDisappearing Middle ClassParents will ask: are you going to come to my emotional rescue? The Middle Class: Dual Income Family $75,000 ~ “The Middle Class on the Precipice,” Harvard Magazine, February, 2006

8. NAIS SSS Five Year TrendParent’s Financial Statement Filers

9. Our World: TrendsThe Competition

10. The Competition • Ok…now be HONEST…what’s your COMPETITION? • Urban Schools Aiming Higher Than Diploma BOSTON — At Excel High School, in South Boston, teachers do not just prepare students academically for the SAT; they take them on practice walks to the building where the SAT will be given so they won’t get lost on the day of the test. (1/18/08 NYT) Online Schooling Grows, Setting Off a Debate The New York Times (from February 1, 2008) “Half a million American children take classes online, and many are attending virtual public schools that are competing with local districts for public financing.”

11. The Competition

12. Not What Parents Were Expecting Holy Report Card, Batman! Ok…pause…your reactions? Do you think the competition is any good? Hey, this is us! Who are these folk? Source: 2006 Your First College Year (YFCY) Survey , The Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) -UCLA

13. Our World: TrendsDemographics

14. Changing School-age Population Source: Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, September 2006.

15. Forecasted Growth in Population Age 0-17 Years

16. Aging of AmericaShift in age distribution

17. Family Structure • In 2003: • 68 percent of children under the age of 18 lived with two married parents (compared to 77 percent in 1980) • 23 percent lived only with a mother • 5 percent lived only with a father • 4 percent lived with neither parent. (U.S. Census Bureau, “America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2003”) • The number of two-parent families is projected to slowly decrease to 23.1 million by 2010. (U.S. Department of Commerce, “Projections of the Number of Households and Families in the United States: 1995 to 2010”)

18. Race and Ethnicity • Whites will make up only 58% of those in the 0-24 age range by 2015 (compared with 70% in 1990). (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”) • Hispanics are expected to nearly double from 12 % in 1990 to 21% in 2015. (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”) • Half of all school children will be non-Anglo American by 2025, and half of all Americans will be non-Anglo American by 2050. (Hodgkinson, “Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities”) • The 65% increase in diverse populations will be absorbed by only 230 counties, with California, Texas, and Florida getting about three-fifths. (Hodgkinson, “Educational Demographics: What Teachers Should Know”)

19. Gen Xers Parents • Some characteristics of Gen Xers: • Are children of divorce. 40% have grown up in single parent families. As a result, they want a rich family life. While financial success is important, personal lives take precedence. • Have spent more time watching television than going to school. • Have an unrelenting desire to use and learn more about leading edge technology. • Are procrastinators, postponing commitments in order to continue to evaluate options. • Are a racially diverse group. • Will pick up and leave a job that does not satisfy them.

20. Observations • K-12 cohort: slower growth nationally, more certain parts of the country • Older citizenry: more grand parents paying tuition, families chipping-in, less inclined to pay more in taxes for public schools? • Demographic look: more Hispanic families, higher educational attainment means more and different expectations of schools? • Financial picture: larger gap rich and poor, hurting emotional middle class, affordability and value of a private school education?

21. Public Perceptions ofIndependent Schools

22. What are the elements of a quality school?(general public & high income) • NAIS Public Opinion Poll 3/November 2006 • Washington, Atlanta, Chicago, San Francisco • Samplings: Parents with school age children/High income (150k or more) parents with school age children • Providing a safe environment • Employing high quality teachers • Maintaining discipline • Keeping students motivated/enthusiastic about learning • Climate that says it’s okay to study and excel • Preparing students academically for college • Encouraging parents’ participation What do you think are some of the keyelements of a quality school? Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

23. Top 10 Characteristics That Affect School Quality - General Public Opinion Providing a safe environment Employing high-quality teachers Maintaining discipline Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about learning Supporting a climate that says it’s okay to study and excel Preparing students academically for college Encouraging parents to participate in their child's education Preventing drug and alcohol use Preparing students for life and career in a global economy Attending to the needs of students with learning disabilities Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

24. Top 10 Characteristics That Affect School Quality - High Income Families Opinions Supporting a climate that says it’s okay to study and excel #5 Gen Pub Preparing students academically for college #6 Gen Pub Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about learning #4 Gen Pub Preventing drug and alcohol use #8 Gen Pub Providing a safe environment Employing high-quality teachers Maintaining discipline #3 Gen Pub Encouraging parents to participate in their child's education Using computers and other technology to enhance learning Preparing students for life and career in a global economy Same as Gen Pub Different from Gen Pub Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

25. Ouch! Gap Analysis Among Targeted Sample Note: “Extremely Important” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Not At All Important and 10 is Extremely Important. Note: “Excellent” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Very Poor and 10 is Excellent. *Indicates a significant difference from the characteristic ranked as important at the 95% confidence level Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

26. Ind Schools vs. Public Schools Look at these numbers: Is this why our new competitors are so attractive?

27. Observations • Public thinking: are we offering a product they value; why doesn’t the public know more about us?

28. What This Tells UsandWhat To Do

29. Key Questions/Issues…How Do You… • Assure Product Quality (i.e., are schools doing what they say they do)? [POP3 results] • Accreditation. Is your accreditation process designed to help your school confirm/improve quality? What areas do parents (POP3) and your school think are important markers of a quality education? If aligned with your mission, are you doing them? How? Can you get better? • Distinguish from the Competition (i.e., what makes us different from virtual, magnet, charters, etc.)? • Program/Mission/Faculty. What actually does distinguish your school from the high-end magnet, virtual, charter down the road or in the ethers? Can you identify what those characteristics are? Data to back it up? Have you done a comparison? Can you demonstrate whether you are a 21st Century School?

30. The Wisdom of the Crowd What’s on your list of skills and values that we should teach for the 21st C.? The skills of … The values of…

31. The Generative Question: What curriculum will prepare students for the 21st Century? What skills & values will be required? Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum • cross-disciplinary knowledge • communication skills • teamwork • analytical reasoning • real world problem-solving skills • creativity and innovation • facility with the use of ideas and • abstractions • self-discipline and organization to • manage one’s own work and drive it to • successful conclusion • leadership • ethical • respectful

32. Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum Who’s Who of Key Players

33. Key Questions/Issues…How Do You… • Articulate your VAP (i.e., how do we demonstrate that we’re worth it?) • Outcomes-based Performance Measurements. How is your school accountable to its students and parents? What is your value-added? How can you demonstrate it? [NAIS Outcomes-based Performance Measurements Initiative/NAIS Survey Builder]

34. O-b PMeasurement Tools Explored by NAIS

35. HSSSE—Sample Test Items

36. MAP

37. CWRA

38. NAIS Survey Builder

39. NAIS Survey Builder

40. U-CAN/Dept of ED

41. Key Questions/Issues…How Do You… • Know Your Marketplace/Enhance School Marketing (i.e., who we are and what we do) • Marketing. What do you know about trends nationally, regionally, locally? Are you tracking the demographics? [NAIS Demographic Center] What are your messages? How are you getting them out there? [NAIS Advocacy Resources]

42. Advocacy Materials/Demographic Centre

43. DEMOGRAPHIC CENTERBasic Reports • They include variables such as school population, families with children by income, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment • Types of reports: • Summary Reports • Detailed Reports • Multiple Area Reports

44. Select any of the NAIS Reports

45. Select the area you want to study

46. Press the "Create Report" button

47. Select any of the NAIS Reports

48. Press the ‘Create Table’ button to display your report

49. Case Study I: Changing Gender Trends • An elementary girls’ school in Philadelphia is just starting a strategic visioning process. It goes to the Demographic Center and sees this. • What strategic questions should the school administration ask? • What percentage of all girls would we need to attract to survive? Is that doable? • Do we consider going coed? Or merging with another girls’ school? • If not, what financial planning do we need to do to help us weather the downturn? • Can we work with the local businesses and the chamber of commerce to attract new families to the area?

50. Case Study II: Changing Ethnicity Trends • A school in San Antonio, Texas, finds that the population of people of color in its area is growing rapidly. The school currently has 10% students of color. • What strategic questions should the school administration ask? • Given the demographic changes, what are the implications of these changes? • What are the key characteristics that parents of color are looking for in a school? Does the school highlight these characteristics in its messages? • What communication channels should the school use to reach out to the people of color in its community? Should the school include other languages in its communications with parents?