Talks

1. Talks • 全球暖化呭係金吔? • 地球氣候系統與其變化 • 觀測與推估–IPCC AR4 • 觀測與推估–臺灣地區 • 碳的前世今生- Global Carbon Cycle • 高處不勝寒- Roles of cloud on climate and climate change • 滄海桑田- Global warming and SLR • 短期氣候變異- ENSO, AO, and AAO

2. 你認為我們正遭受地球暖化的威脅嗎？ • 十分同意 • 同意 • I have no idea • 不同意 • 十分不同意

3. 全球暖化？ • 1975年美國科學家Wallace Broecker發表一篇名為『氣候變遷：我們是否正面臨全球暖化？』的文章，率先用『全球暖化』一詞凸顯地球發燙。 • 1980年7月美國德州連續出現華氏一百度（38℃）以上高溫，乾熱造成一千三百人死亡，財物損失超過二百億美元。 • 事後美國國家氣候資料中心(NCDC)發現，哪年的高溫酷旱是廿世紀裡、八十年中最慘重的一次，自此人類不斷聽到全球暖化、臭氧洞及酸雨等問題，結合延伸出一個讓人憂心忡忡的未來景象。

4. 2009年11月，駭客入侵東英格蘭大學伺服器，竊取數千封氣候科學家的電子郵件。部分信件內容顯示，科學家並無法解釋最近期間氣溫下降的原因，甚至意謂全球暖化可能不是那麼嚴重，但仍決定做成全球暖化嚴重的論點。 被駭的電郵內容被公布後，成為全球暖化懷疑派的批評把柄，這場風波因此被稱作「氣候門」醜聞(Climate gate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming)，而這些郵件顯示，瓊斯曾要同事摧毀一些科學性資料，而非公諸於世，以免落入氣候變遷懷疑派手中。 • 另一方面，英國媒體繼續揭穿聯合國政府間氣候變遷問題小組（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , IPCC）2007年報告的多項錯誤與數據問題。2007年報告為IPCC的最新報告(AR4)，接連出包令IPCC信譽嚴重受損。 • 2010年，IPCC才因報告有一段稱喜馬拉雅山冰川將在2035年融化有錯，正式對外道歉與宣布刪除。 • 英國每日電訊報7日說，IPCC AR4的報告不僅草率引用記者會和新聞稿資料，還不當引述未經查證的企業網站數據、環保利益團體提供的資料，甚至引述尚未發表的學生論文。 • 英國最新民調發現，這些事件導致相信氣候暖化的民眾已從去年的44%下降到現在的31%。相對的，認為暖化言過其實的人則從去年的22%增加到31%。

5. 好冷的冬天! • 「不是說全球暖化嗎？怎麼愈來愈冷？」2009年哥本哈根會議還在討論全球暖化可能造成的浩劫。然而，中國、英國、北歐等地卻刷新低溫紀錄，為寒害所苦。「暖化」和「寒害」同時發生，讓人心生疑惑? • 當人們關注全球暖化的話題，但是2010-2012年冬天北半球中緯度地區反而超冷。為何在「暖化」的趨勢之下還會出現「寒冬」？ 氣候就像海上的波浪一樣會有高低起伏，是不穩定的。「並不是說暖化就沒有冬天。」「暖化」並不是一直變熱，而是「平均溫度」逐漸提高，每天還是有冷有熱。

6. 好冷的冬天! • 北半球的冬天常受什麼因素影響？90年代，有學者提出「北極振盪」（Arctic Oscillation，AO）和「AO指數」。 北極區的「西風帶」就像一個「氣流鎖」一樣，把極區的冷空氣圍起來。西風帶氣流強時，AO指數是正值，稱作「正（暖）相位」，這代表極區的氣壓低、中高緯度的氣壓高，天氣系統傾向「東西向」移動，冷空氣不容易跑出去，北半球就比較暖。反過來說，如果極區的西風帶氣流弱，AO指數是負值，稱作「負（冷）相位」，這代表極區的氣壓高、中高緯度的氣壓低，天氣系統傾向「南北向」移動，西風帶就可能被「衝破」，冷空氣大舉南下，北半球就容易變冷。

8. Global Warming the term describing the warming of the earth due to the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (mainly Carbon Dioxide) that enhances the natural greenhouse effect (IPCC).

9. CO2, H2O

10. The evidence of Global Warming is of two kinds: • Fingerprintsof global warming are indicators of the global, long-term warming trend observed in the historical record. They include heat waves, sea-level rise, melting glaciers and warming of the poles. • Harbingersare events that foreshadow the impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming. They include spreading disease, earlier spring arrival, plant and animal range shifts, coral reef bleaching, downpours, and droughts and fires.

11. What do we know? http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

12. Statistics hardly tells the cause-effect. CO2 T

13. Don’t forget the warming/cooling due to Water Vapor!

14. Where does man-made CO2 come from?

16. CO2 N2O CH4

17. Why CO2?

19. Trend? http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/jan-dec_prcp_pre2006-pg.gif

20. Global Sea Level Rise (SLR): Worldwide measurements from tidal gauges indicate that global mean sea level has risen between 10 and 25 cm (18 cm average) during the last 100 years (Warrick et al., 1996). http://www.ucsusa.org/global_environment/global_warming/page.cfm?pageID=503

21. Glaciers Melting Thermal expansion Coastal sinking

23. Arctic Warming: There is substantial evidence that the Arctic climate is warming (e.g., Dickson, 1999; Weller and Anderson, 1998). Average annual temperature in the Arctic has increased by about 1oC over the last century -- a rate that is approximately double that of global average temperatures (IPCC, 1998).

24. Trend? http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/snowcover-nh-winter.gif

25. IPCC Climate Change 2007 Report • Key findings: • Global warming was “very likely" caused by human activity, a phrase that translates to a more than 90 percent certainty that it is caused by man's burning of fossil fuels. • Global warming and sea level rise will continue on for centuries despite of any effort of reduction of greenhouse gases emission. • Man-made emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for fewer cold days, hotter nights, killer heat waves, floods and heavy rains, devastating droughts, and an increase in hurricane and tropical storm strength — particularly in the Atlantic Ocean.

26. IPCC Climate Change 2007 Report • Key findings: (continued) • Report predicts that temperature rises of 2-11.5oF by the year 2100. That was a wider range than in the 2001 report. • Report projects that sea level will rise between 7 and 23 inches by the end of the century. An additional 3.9-7.8 inches are possible if recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues. • Snow cover will shrink with increase in thaw depth of most permafrost regions.

27. The real crisis might be environmental change under the global population explosion (globalization)! http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html

28. Courtesy: Honeysett, U.K.

29. The Grand Carbon Cycle

30. A good reason that you should hug a tree!

32. Why CO2? Wavelength (um) 大氣窗區

35. September 30, 2004, Thursday Global Warming Is Expected To Raise Hurricane Intensity By Andrew C. Revkin, New York Times Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to the most comprehensive computer analysis done so ... By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases could cause a typical hurricane to intensify about... http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F50711F83E5C0C738FDDA00894DC404482

36. Statistics hardly tell the cause-effect.

37. The relationship between Hurricanes and Global Warming is subtle at most. Global Warming may be occurring, but it is a slow global process; on the other hand, hurricanes form, develop, and dissipate in a much smaller temporal and spatial scale.