Global Competition

1. Global Competition Victor Camlek VP Market Intelligence Thomson Reuters Feb. 28, 2012

2. Measuring Global Competition • Global competitiveness is difficult to state as a simple metric • GC is viewed in a number of ways based on authoritative sources • Various reports rank regions and nations of the world based upon: • Economic Performance • Global Innovation • Research & Development • Patent Filings • Education Trends • Scholarly Metrics • Reporting organizations utilize a detailed series of parameters and sub-parameters to achieve an overall scaled ranking • A review of selected rankings indicates no consistent “winner” • Leadership within the various rankings depends on the data to be assessed and the various analytic frameworks utilized

3. Economic Leadership • GDP offers a standard measurement of economic performance • Three leading sources provide GDP PPP forecasts • International Monetary Fund Database • World Bank • US CIA World Fact Book • GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) is a good metric. It adjusts exchange rates so that an identical good in different countries has the same price when expressed in the same currency • In terms of GDP, the US continues to lead the world • China has moved into a number two position. Analysts have forecast China will eventually assume global leadership. • GDP measures global output, but it is not intended to gauge material well-being, rather it serves as a measure of a nation's productivity

4. Top 10 Global Economies Based on PPP • Chart displays growth in China’s GDP heading toward global leadership • GDP is a valid economic measurement but it does not measure the distribution wealth Number 1 Position Source IMF: International Monitory Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September 2011

5. The Global Innovation Index (GII) • Source: Insead, 2011 • Detailed global analysis • Ranks 125 countries based on a complex series of pillars and sub-Pillars • Knowledge Partners: Insead, Alcatel-Lucent, Booz and Company, Confederation of Indian Industry, WIPO

6. The Global Innovation Index Computed as an average of the scores across inputs pillars (describing the enabling environment for innovation) and output pillars (measuring actual achievements in innovation) Five pillars constitute the Innovation Input Sub-Index: 'Institutions,' 'Human capital and research,' 'Infrastructure', 'Market sophistication' and 'Business sophistication‘ The Innovation Output Sub-Index is composed of two pillars: 'Scientific outputs' and 'Creative outputs The Innovation Efficiency Index, calculated as the ratio of the two Sub-Indices, examines how economies leverage their enabling environments to stimulate innovation results.

7. GII Number One Ranking: Switzerland Switzerland achieved first place in the overall 2011 GII rankings (up from position 4th last year) on the basis of its strong position in both the Input and Output Sub-Indices (3rd and 2nd). Although the country does not top any individual pillar, it places within the top 5 in three Input pillars (Institutions at 5th, Market sophistication at 5th, and Business sophistication at 4th) and both Output pillars (Scientific outputs at 2nd and Creative outputs at 3rd). Its many strengths include its top 10 positions on 30 indicators several sub-pillars. The top 10 economies in the Innovation Efficiency Index are Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, China, Pakistan, Moldova, Sweden, Brazil, Argentina, India, and Bangladesh. Three BRIC economies (Brazil, India, and China) are in this select list, with the fourth, the Russian Federation, coming in at 52nd place. By region, the best performers are Côte d’Ivoire (1st), China (3rd), Pakistan (4th), Moldova (5th), Brazil (7th), Jordan (16th), and the US (26th). By income group, in descending order of income , the leaders are Sweden, Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, and Bangladesh.

8. GII: Innovation Leaders Source: Data from 2011 GII

9. GII: Additional Countries of Interest Source: Data from 2011 GII

10. GII: Rankings Within The Pillars Show Variations in Performance and Leadership Source: Data from 2011 GII

11. World Economic Forum • Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012. World Economic Forum, Geneva Switzerland, September 2011 • Detailed analysis based on 12 Pillars (Institutions; Infrastructure; Macroeconomic environment; Health and Primary Education; Higher Education and Training; Goods Market Efficiency; Labor Market Efficiency; Financial Market Development; Technological Readiness; Market Size; Business Sophistication; Innovation

12. Global Competitiveness Report BRIC Rankings: China 26; Brazil 53; India 56; Russian Federation 66 Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2011-12, c2011

13. Global Competitiveness Report Summary Switzerland tops the overall rankings Singapore overtakes Sweden for second position. Northern and Western European countries dominate the top 10 with Sweden (3rd), Finland (4th), Germany (6th), the Netherlands (7th), Denmark (8th) and the United Kingdom (10th). Japan remains the second-ranked Asian economy at 9th place, despite falling three places since last year. The United States continues its decline for the third year in a row, falling one more place to fifth position; Macroeconomic vulnerabilities continue to build, some aspects of the United States’ institutional environment continue to raise concern among business leaders - low public trust in politicians and concerns about government inefficiency. More positive note, banks and financial institutions are rebounding for the first time since the financial crisis.

14. Global Competitiveness Report Summary Germany maintains a strong position within the Eurozone, although it goes down one position to sixth place, while the Netherlands (7th) improves by one position in the rankings, France drops three places to 18th, and Greece continues its downward trend to 90th. Competitiveness-enhancing reforms will play a key role in revitalizing growth in the region and tackling its key challenges, fiscal consolidation and persistent unemployment The results show that while competitiveness in advanced economies has stagnated over the past seven years, in many emerging markets it has improved, placing their growth on a more stable footing and mirroring the shift in economic activity from advanced to emerging economies. 

15. Global Competitiveness Report Summary The People’s Republic of China (26th) continues to lead the way among large developing economies, improving by one more place and solidifying its position among the top 30. Among the four other BRICS economies, South Africa (50th) and Brazil (53rd) move upwards while India (56th) and Russia (66th) experience small declines. Several Asian economies perform strongly, with Japan (9th) and Hong Kong SAR (11th) also in the top 20.

16. Measuring Research and Development • Source: 2012 Global R&D Funding Forecast December 2011, Battelle and R&D Magazine • Reports results of an annual survey of researchers

17. Headlines US Industry R&D Increases 3.8% to $280 billion Growing worldwide emphasis on basic research Global R&D Spending to increase 5.2% to $1.4 trillion Increasing importance of R&D ROI and collaboration Numerous tables and text summarize R&D trends by geography and Industry

18. Trends in R&D • Global R&D spending is expected to grow by about 5.2% to more than $1.4 trillion in 2012 • Slightly less than the 6.5% growth seen in 2011 • Most of the global funding growth is being driven by Asian economies, which are expected to increase nearly 9% in 2012 • European R&D will grow by about 3.5% • North American R&D will grow by 2.8%. U.S. R&D is forecast to grow 2.1% in 2012 to $436 billion Share of Total Global R&D Spending Source: Battelle, R&D Magazine

19. Global R&D Forecast

20. R&D Forecast Trends Source: 2012 Global R&D Funding Forecast, Battelle and R&D Mag Emerging economies are increasing their global technological presence Economic issues in established economies limit their ability to support R&D Established economies are losing their unique “tech-opolies” Sustainability is becoming a competitive advantage Energy has created new techology opportunities and hazards Rapid technology innovation is creating a more knowledge-intensive world Product and technology sourcing has created new techno-politico issues

21. Measuring Trends In Education

22. Number of College Degrees WorldwideNational Bureau of Economic Research % Population Aged 15 and Older: Completed Tertiary Degree • Trending trajectories can be assumed based on metrics tracking percent of attainment across wide population groups (Barro-Lee data). • A trajectory is illustrated that supports the argument that attainment of undergraduate and graduate degrees is increasing in emerging economies (Brazil, India, China) while US attainment appears to be less than the peak year of 2000, although based on full population is still a substantial number of people. Source: A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010, Robert J. Barro, Jong-Wha Lee http://www.nber.org/papers/w15902 22

23. University Enrollment • India's government speaks of increasing the proportion of young people going to university from 12% at present to 30% by 2025 - approaching the levels of many Western countries • The amount of money in India’s central budget for higher education in the current five year plan (2010-2015) is nine times the amount of the previous five years • China has twice as many university graduates as the United States, which used to be the world leader, according to statistics published by UNESCO. • In 2005, more students graduated from universities in the 19 WEI* countries than in the 30 Member States of the OECD combine **WEI (World Education Indicator) Countries = Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Jordan, Malaysia, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Russian Federation, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tunisia, Uruguay and Zimbabwe Source: “India: The next university superpower?” Mar 2011; UNESCO

24. Number of First University/Doctoral Degrees • China now produces an equal or greater number of natural science and engineering (NS&E) doctoral degrees compared to the United States, rising four-fold from approx 5,000 in 1997 to over 20,000 in 2007 • Asia Expanding Researchers and High-Tech EducationIn terms of total researchers, the U.S. and the E.U. experienced moderate annual growth of about 3% between 1995 and 2006, while growth in the Asian region outside Japan ranged from 7-11%. China averaged nearly 9% growth annually in researchers, far outstripping any other country. Over this period the number of China’s researchers nearly tripled, from just over half a million to more than 1.4 million, boosting its global share from 13% to 25%. The U.S. also has around 1.4 million researchers, which places China at a level playing field in overall numbers (although there are questions about the quality of Chinese researchers) Source: National Science Board, “Science and Engineering Indicators 2010”

25. CGS International Graduate Admissions Survey – International Applications by Discipline

26. Patent Filings

27. Global Patent Data • Worldwide filings rebounded in 2010 • China and the US accounted for the majority of worldwide growth (4/5ths) China IP growth more than doubled GDP growth • Patent growth in Europe represented by France, Germany and the UK plus applications from the EPO far exceeded GDP growth rate • Japan growth rate more than doubled GDP • Republic of Korea only reported office where GDP growth exceeded patent growth • Source: WIPO 2011 World Intellectual Property Indicators • http://www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/freepublications/en/intproperty/941/wipo_pub_941_2011.pdf

28. Research Metrics

29. ESI Listings: By Papers • Source: Thomson Reuters http://sciencewatch.com/dr/cou/2011/11decALL

30. Sorted by Citations • Source: Thomson Reuters http://sciencewatch.com/dr/cou/2011/11decALL

31. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters (2010) Global Research Report, United States, November 2010 • “The US is no longer the Colossus of Science, dominating the research landscape in its production of scientific papers, that it was 30 years ago. It now shares this realm, on an increasingly equal basis, with the EU27 and Asia-Pacific. In terms of relative citation impact — an indicator of utility, influence, significance and similar concepts — the US still holds a commanding but eroding peak position. Europe is beginning to match US performance in citation impact, and analysts are likely to be tempted to predict that, in a decade or two, Asian nations will do so as well”

32. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters (2009) Global Research Report, China November 2009 • “Beginning around the mid-1990s, China’s output of scientific reports expanded dramatically, commencing a steep upward trajectory that has only increased in recent years.” Charts covering the years 1999 to 2008, capture “the increase in the annual number of Thomson Reuters-indexed papers featuring at least one author address in China. From just over 20,000 papers in 1998, China’s output increased to upwards of 112,000 papers by 2008 —with the nation more than doubling its output since 2004 alone. By the measure of annual output, China surpassed Japan, the UK and Germany in 2006 and now stands second only to the USA.”

33. China: Dramatic Growth • The numbers of papers from large regions make it tricky to appreciate change. • The data here are indexed back to the starting totals in 1981. • The value for each region is set at 1.0 in 1981. Later years are compared back to that point. • Each country is then tracked in terms of growth as a ratio. • The USA grows more slowly than world average but the EU-27 does better • China accelerates past these, growing its published research output to more than 75 times the total in 1981 (135,000 articles cf 1,750). • In some technology fields it already exceeds US output • In Chemistry it has grown 150-fold and now produces 27,000 papers per year compared to 23,000 for the US. • Initial signs of reaching a plateau – but growth in physical sciences is being mirrored by growth in biomedical and social sciences • Still, plenty of room for further expansion of the research portfolio 33 Source: Thomson Reuters

34. IMPACT PROFILE CURVES ENABLE A RICH COMPARISON Un-cited Papers Normalized against relevant world average Most cited papers Source: Thomson Reuters

35. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters . Global Research Report, Brazil, June 2009 • “Brazil is an increasingly important and competitive research economy. Its research workforce capacity and R&D investment are expanding rapidly, offering many new possibilities in a diversifying research portfolio. It has received much less policy attention than China, however, and the research base in Latin America in general is unfamiliar to many in Europe and Asia. The report shows that Brazil’s output has doubled in ten years to 2007, part of a long-term trend of growth that far exceeds established G7 economies. Relative to the rest of the world, Brazil has exceptional capacity in biology-based disciplines and research related to natural resources.”

36. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters. Global Research Report, India, October 2009 • “In the modern era, science and technology have been central to India’s development efforts since the nation achieved independence in 1947...Despite these achievements, recent years have seen a growing realization among scholars, policymakers, and other observers that India lags behind other key countries and some of its BRIC partners in research investment and output... A nagging problem, however—perhaps paradoxically for the second-most populous nation on earth—is a current lack of human resources: the availability of qualified researchers has not kept pace with the increased funding ”

37. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters. Global Research Report, Japan, June 2010 • “Japan has a well-established research enterprise, world-class universities and government laboratories, and has produced a number of Nobel Prize winners. Yet its relative impact, across all fields taken together, remains below the world average. While its neighboring nations’ citation impact is on the rise, Japan’s numbers have lagged ...In contrast to the scientific output of two surging Asian economies previously examined in these Global Research Reports—India and China—Japan’s yield of research publications has been comparatively flat over the last decade.”

38. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters. Global Research Report, United Kingdom, October 2011. • “The UK spends 4% of the world’s Gross Expenditure on R&D on 6% of the world’s researchers who are authors on 8% of the world’s research articles and reviews. These papers attract 11% of the world’s citations and so create 14% of the world’s highly cited output. Those exceptional articles include 17% of the world’s research papers with more than 500 citations and 20% of those with more than 1000 citations. Its average research impact now surpasses that of the USA. Despite this outstanding performance – in terms of research efficiency, effectiveness and excellence – the level of private-sector research investment in the UK is surprisingly low and has fallen relative to comparators. The innovative capacity and potential of the UK is therefore not matched by its engagement with economic competitiveness, but this is not the fault of the research base.

39. Research Metrics: Latest View • China • Plateau in growth in physical sciences and engineering but continued growth in biomedical sciences. .  • Brazil • Growing in a different way to China because of its emphasis as a ‘natural knowledge’ economy, which may give it great sustainability.  • Outside the BRIC(Korea) group, • Singapore is small but operates in a very efficient manner. • Iran has a very dynamic profile that is not limited to suspect technologies.  • Attention can also be drawn to Mexico, Egypt, Turkey and Poland as countries that have significant potential likely to be realised in the next ten years.  • “This changes the geography quite a bit, and then you start to look at the changing collaboration which is becoming less G7 orientated and more regional.  It may be that regionalisation that will affect the trans-Atlantic hegemony as much as any single growth country.  The Asia-Pacific network could be very powerful; a Latin America network around a Brazil-Mexico axis should also emerge.  This may then boost the status of regional journals, and that could affect our strategy, although the predominance of English as the common research language may constrain that).” Source: Thomson Reuters disaggregation of data allow this disaggregation to be analysed Source: Thomson Reuters

40. GROWTH OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT IN ASIA-PACIFIC (e.g. Materials) • Materials science captures a diversity of critical new technologies. • This is a domain where growth of the newly emergent research economies is very marked. • The US led in the 1980s but stopped growing • China bypassed the US in 2004 and now produces 13K papers per year. US produces less than 8K • Other AP countries have also invested in this area (Singapore, S. Korea, Taiwan). • The Middle East is now beginning to take off 40 40 Source: Thomson Reuters 40

41. The Middle East is Typical of New Regional Growth Turkey’s research growth in this decade is faster than China’s Source: Thomson Reuters

42. What About The Publishers?

43. What About The Publishers?

44. What About The Publishers?

45. Publishers: Emerging Global Competitors? • For the most part, publishers have developed a global presence and partnered with various regional companies rather than face direct competition • Scholars continue to benefit from publishing in global journals • The goal to demonstrate quality rather than quantity tends to support the traditional publishers • However, there are a combination of emerging and legacy publishers visible in China, India and Brazil. • A good portion of the STM market in emerging economies focuses on books or indices.

46. China: Notable STM Data Sources • CNKI: Chinese National Resource Integrated Database • Wanfang: As an affiliate of Chinese Ministry of Science & Technology, Wanfang Data has been the leading information provider in China since 1950s. With a wide range of database resources and value-added services, Wanfang Data has become a gateway to understand Chinese culture, medicine, business, science, etc. • Notable STM Publishers: • Higher Education Press • China Science Publishing Group Co Ltd (Science Press) • People’s Medical Publishing House • Chemical Industry Press • Chinese Medicine Net • Shanghai Scientific & Tec

47. CNKI

48. Wanfang

49. India STM Publishing • Leading Publishers in India • CBS Publishers & Distributors Pvt Ltd • Medknow Publications (WK) • McGraw-Hill Professional India • Nature India • Reed Elsevier • Sage Publications • Springer India • The Indian Academy of Sciences (IAS) • Thieme Medical Publishers Inc Wiley India • Indian Citation Index: developed by "The Knowledge Foundation“ with support of M/s Divan Enterprise. Mr. Prakash Chand thought to bring out Indian Citation Index (ICI) database covering ~1000 top Indian scholarly journals encompassing all disciplines of knowledge. The ICI database enables access and empowers users to search, track, measure and collaborate in the sciences, social sciences, arts, and humanities to turns raw data/information into the powerful knowledge one needs. ICI like other indexes enables user to move back in time to previously published papers, but uniquely one can also look forward in time to determine who has subsequently cited an earlier piece of research.”

50. Indian Citation Index