1 / 24

SB 375: Impacts on the Desert’s Way of Life? Ty Schuiling Interim Executive Director

SB 375: Impacts on the Desert’s Way of Life? Ty Schuiling Interim Executive Director. California Desert Air Quality Working Group Conference, November 2, 2011. The Desert Way of Life. Generally large lot SF detached residential development – quiet, solitude…

castor-mills
Download Presentation

SB 375: Impacts on the Desert’s Way of Life? Ty Schuiling Interim Executive Director

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. SB 375: Impacts on the Desert’s Way of Life?Ty SchuilingInterim Executive Director California Desert Air Quality Working Group Conference, November 2, 2011

  2. The Desert Way of Life • Generally large lot SF detached residential development – quiet, solitude… • Very auto-oriented development pattern, trip lengths longer than SoCal average • Large share of labor force commutes to distant jobs • Some fixed-route transit service, “premium” transit (rail or BRT) & peds not supported by land use Precisely the target of SB 375?

  3. Drivers Rapid High Desert grew rapidly for several decades in response to: • Boomers were of prime family-raising, home buying age (between 20 & 60) • Desert offered much more affordable large lot SFDUs for families • Relatively inexpensive gas prices kept cost of commuting tolerable • Moderate congestion kept commute times bearable

  4. Long Distance Commuting?

  5. Congestion Impacts on Commuting?

  6. Cheap Gas? Chevron Ads, circa 2005

  7. The Future: Shift SCAG Region Ages 12% Increase: 90% 12% 2035 2010

  8. Residents Reaching Age 655-year Increments, 1970 to 2040

  9. The Next 25 Years: • More Southern Californians entering retirement years (65+, 1.8 Million)… • Than entering main family-raising, family home-buying ages (21 – 64, 1.4 Million) Implications???

  10. Heads of Households • Male household headship rates decline • Female household headship rates increase

  11. Household Composition Changes • Household Type 1960 2005 2040 • HH with Children 48% 32% 26% • HH without Children 52% 68% 74% • Single/Other HH 13% 31% 34% • Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah

  12. Housing Growth by Type Based on General Plan Input for the 2012 RTP/SCS, 2008-2035

  13. Projected Housing 2008-2035

  14. Regional Development Possibilities

  15. Aging: As of 2010, who are the Baby Boomers?

  16. Household Income Before Taxesby Age Source: 2000 Consumer Expenditure Survey

  17. Average Household Annual Expendituresby Age Source: 2000 Consumer Expenditure Survey

  18. Personal Income Taxes Paid by Californians Source: California State Controller’s Office, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 1997 Current Population Survey

  19. Government Related Services Per Capita $18,000 $16,000 Health Care $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 Social Security Public Education $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 0-19 20-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 and Above Other Retirement All Other Public Transfers

  20. Outlook… • Less discretionary income (reduced gov’t support for seniors or higher taxes on workers to support them) makes housing and transport affordability critical • Congestion will further impact long commutes… • As will continuing increases in fuel costs • Little demand for more large lot SFDU’s • Increasing demand for diverse housing options in proximity to work, shop, play

  21. Preserving the Vitality of Desert Communities Will Require: • Development of a much more robust local economic base • A more diverse suite of residential opportunities to address changing demography • Residential opportunities in closer proximity to jobs, retail, education, and recreation

  22. What about SB 375? • A mandate to do what demographics and market forces would ultimately cause to occur anyway… • But would this conversation be occurring now without it?

More Related