Strategic Planning for Climate Change and Wildlife Sustainability

1. USGS Global Change ScienceNational Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center and SE Regional Hub Sonya Jones USGS Southeast Area NIDIS Planning Meeting July 21-22, 2009 Chapel Hill, NC U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey http://nccw.usgs.gov/

2. USGS Global Change Science Development • National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC): A partnership to sustain fish & wildlife communities in natural systems • Climate Effects Network: A vision for a national climate early-warning system • Carbon Sequestration: Geological and biological approaches to understanding the fluxes, sequestration and impacts on human and natural systems

3. Partner Listening Sessions • National Meeting – December 2008 • North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference – March 2009 • Eastern Region – May 2009 • Central Region – June 2009 • Western Region – June 2009 • National Meeting – July 2009

4. National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center • A partnership to sustain fish & wildlife communities • Forecasts fish & wildlife change through: • Down-scaled climate models and derivative products • Integration with ecological & habitat models • Defining population and habitat responses at appropriate scales • Developing response options in an adaptive monitoring framework • Joint decision-making with Federal, State and NGO communities • National and regional focus on adaptation/impacts

5. National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center Regional Climate Science Hubs Oversight Boards NCCWSC • Science • Decision-making • Down-scaling of GCMs • Regional Response • - Eco & Population Models • Forecasting • National Syntheses • Standardized Approaches • New Science & Methodologies • Communication NEON National Partnerships Adaptive Application Partnerships RISA USDA • GIS & Models • Species/habitat assessment • Adaptive Mgmt monitoring • Feedback • Carbon Cycling (?) NASA NPN CEN

6. NCCWSC Priorities • Analyses of climate information and derivative products • Forecasts of fish and wildlife population and habitat change in response to climate change • Integration of physical climate information with ecological and habitat response models • Standardized approaches to facilitate linking existing monitoring to climate models and ecological and biological response models • Communication - sharing information across Regional Hubs and making science products available to natural resource managers

7. NCCWSC APPROACH NCCWSC National Office Regional Climate Science Hub Global Climate Model Downscaling Science-based Ecosystem Response & Forecasting Regional Habitat & Population Response Adaptive Application Partnerships Forecasting Habitat & Species Response Food Habitat Recruitment Management-based Adaptive Management & Monitoring Site Specific Species or Populations Response

8. Regional Climate Science Hubs Partnerships are key • Cover the Nation (7or 8) • Science-based • University hosted • Ecological & political boundaries • Self-generating • Covering multiple AAP’s/LCC’s

9. Regional Climate Science Hubs • Downscaled climate information – linked with ecological/biological response models at scales that help managers develop effective adaptive management strategies • Regional response modeling and forecasting of fish and wildlife population and habitat changein response to climate change • Derivative products - that link biological and ecological response variables with physical forcing factors (e.g. temperature and precipitation) • Modeling possible response scenarios for managers to use in an adaptive management framework

10. Adaptive Application Partnerships • Four to six per Hub • Landscape/geography-based • Partnership-led • Regional Climate Science Hub Outputs: • Combination of expression w/other landscape drivers • Geographic expression of ecological & habitat nodes from RCSH’s at management scales • Priority management goals and time frames

11. Adaptive Application Partnerships • USGS Commitments • Research & Modeling • Adaptive response forecasts including other drivers • Monitoring protocols • USGS Benefits • Strengthening RCSH output • Builds traditional strengths • Partners with other expertise • Leverages resources • Feeds CEN & other monitoring needs

12. SE Regional Science Hub Pilot • Demonstration project: integrates climate change science with habitat and species response models to assess impacts on avian and aquatic species • Cast predictive models calibrated from data gathered during recent decades • NOAA Climate data • Remote sensing data • USGS - BBS & MAPS data • Downscaled climate models • Watershed modeling

13. SE Regional Science Hub Pilot • Regional probabilistic projections of climate change to support all projects • Regional probabilistic projections of landuse change to support all projects • Pilot Projects • Ecological models to project impacts to avian and aquatic species (SAMBI and ACF basin) • Sea-level rise – impacts on coastal fish and wildlife (AL & MS) • Integrate terrestrial and aquatic habitat conservation

14. SE Regional Science Hub Pilot • Staffing • Science lead/coordinator • climate modeler • Ecological/habitat modeler • data management/support • Location • University TBD after RFI • Products • Regional climate models • Regional land use change models • Regional ecological models • Data management • Integration with AAPs • Ecoregionally based teams responsible for finer scale biological planning and conservation design