LAMAS Working Group 5-6 October 2016

1. LAMAS Working Group 5-6 October 2016 Agenda Item 4.2 JVS seasonal adjustment Piotr.Ronkowski@ec.europa.eu

2. Overview • Transmission of SA data • SA quality reports sent by the NSIs • Eurostat's validation of the SA data • SA data for the European aggregates

3. I. Transmission of SA data • SA data required for individual/aggregated NACE sections B-E, F, G-I, J, K, L, M-N, O-Q, R-S • All Member States except Finland now provide SA data for both job vacancies and occupied posts • Finland will be able to provide SA data from June 2017 due to a methodological break in time series • No SA data transmitted by Norway

4. II. SA quality reports • LAMAS agreed in January 2016 on filling the template for SA quality report and transmitting it to Eurostat • Eurostat developed a plug-in for JDemetra+ version 2.1 producing the information required • The SA quality report was sent by all Member States except Greece, France and Luxembourg • No report from Switzerland

5. Software and method used • JDemetra+ officially recommended, since 2 February 2015, to the members of the ESS • Eleven countries use JDemetra+ version 2.0 or higher • A number of countries still use the old versions of the Demetra software • Austria and the United Kingdom use the X12/X13 software whereas Portugal uses SPSS/TRAMO-SEATS

6. Time span of SA data transmitted • Varies across the countries from 4 years to 15 years • Some countries do not transmit regularly the whole SA time series: CZ, HR, EL, IE, NL, PT and SE • All countries are reminded to provide full SA time series by each data transmission i.e. not just the last quarter(s)

7. III. Eurostat's validation of the SA data • Covering the times series for job vacancies and occupied posts in the NACE sections: B-E, F, G-I, J, K, L, M-N, O-Q and R-S for enterprises 1+ • STEP 1: Eurostat checked for each series if it had been seasonally and/or calendar adjusted • By comparing SA with NSA data • By consulting the SA quality report

8. Eurostat's validation of the SA data • STEP 2: Eurostat processed non-seasonally adjusted time series in JDemetra+ version 2.1 • TRAMO-SEATS or X12/X13 method used • Direct approach applied for B-E, G-I, M-N, O-Q and R-S • Results compared with SA data provided by the countries • STEP 3: Eurostat checked for residual seasonality in the SA time series provided by the countries

9. Eurostat's validation of the SA data • Seasonal adjustment: major discrepancies between the results of the countries and Eurostat seen for BG, HR, HU, PL, PT and RO • General recommendation not to apply calendar adjustment • Residual seasonality detected in times series of DK, DE (now corrected by Germany)

10. IV. SA data for the European aggregates • Methodology • Assessment • Dissemination plans

11. 4.1 Methodology • Three main strategies possible: • - the direct approach • - the centralised indirect approach • - the decentralised indirect approach • The direct approach is the only option that can be implemented in the short run (see next slides)

12. 4.1 Methodology • Seasonal patterns rather not the same across EU Member States which would support using indirect-centralised or decentralised–approach • Difficult to justify the centralised indirect-approach as Member States are required by the JVS regulation to provide SA data • The centralized indirect approach could be considered after some NSIs improve their national seasonal adjustment practice/methodology • Therefore, the direct approach is the only option that can be implemented in the short run

13. 4.2 Assessment • The decentralised indirect approach gives the highest volatility of SA data • Lower volatility for both the centralised indirect approach and the direct approach • The centralised indirect approach not selected (against the subsidiarity principle) • This supports implementating the direct approach in the short term and re-assessing the decentralised approach in the long term

14. 4.3 Dissemination plans • SA data for the EU aggregates could be published in December 2016 • Disseminated for NACE aggregates: B-S, B-N, B-F and G-N • In the course of 2017, Eurostat will assess if SA figures could be given more visibility

15. LAMAS delegates are invited (1/2): • For the countries that have not transmitted their SA quality reports to do so before the end of this year • To take note that, from 2017 onwards, the SA quality reports should be included in the standard quality report due in August each year • To ensure that full SA back series are transmitted to Eurostat by each quarterly transmission

16. LAMAS delegates are invited (2/2): • For the countries: BG, HR, HU, PL, PT and RO to take note of Eurostat’s findings as regards possible caveats in their seasonally adjusted data • To take note of the general recommendation not to apply calendar adjustment for JVS • To take note that seasonal adjustment should be done in accordance with ESS guidelines and (preferably) using JDemetra+ version 2.1 • To take note of Eurostat's plans and methods to publish SA data for European aggregates

17. Thank you for your attention!