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Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy: From Empire to Co-existence

Explore the historical shifts in Russian foreign policy from pre-Soviet era to Gorbachev, including key events and influential figures. Understand the impact of ideologies, diplomatic strategies, and international relationships on Russia's global stance. Dive deep into the complex dynamics that shaped Russia's interactions with the world.

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Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy: From Empire to Co-existence

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  1. Russian Foreign PolicyP.Sc. 243 “Russians idolize the past, hate the present and fear the future.” Anton Chekhov

  2. Student Responsibilities • Clickers quizzes • Research Assignment • Final Exam • Diligent (100%) reading, preparation, attendance, participation

  3. Pre-Soviet Foreign Policy • Concert of Europe • Traditional enemies: north/south • Key to military: “technology” • Construction of EMPIRE • War with Japan • World War I

  4. Revolution: Foreign Policy Dimensions • Mil. leadership embarrassed • Marxist ideology: defined enemy • Ideology rejected states/nations • “Workers of the World Unite” • Civil War -- Whites/interventions • Amorphous union: Internationale • USSR (CCCP)

  5. Post-Lenin • Stalin / Trotsky • World Depression / Isolation • Inward turning Central Planning • Purges/all challengers (military) ' • “Socialism in One Country” • Pact with Germany (secret) Baltics, Poland

  6. World War II • Katyn Forest • 1941 Nazis Attack north / south real agenda • near collapse, heroism, desperation • Alliance with West – promises ' • Stalingrad

  7. Teheran, Yalta, Potsdam • Working toward different objectives (Brits, US, Soviets) • “Spheres of Influence” bargain • Linchpin: “Democracy” • Truman & THE BOMB • “Uncle Joe: the schemer” • Iron Curtain

  8. Post-WW II • UNO Advantage: USSR ... • Pol/Econ buffer -- client states • Play ‘hard ball’ in Berlin ‘48 • Test A-Bomb ‘49 • China becomes Communist ‘49 • Ideological antipathy = Cold War • Korean conflict -- gets hot ‘51

  9. Stalin’s Foreign Policy • Abandons ideology self-serving state • Paranoid behavior (elites) • Tightens control EE / other CPs • Disparages Chinese • Leaves no direction at death ‘53

  10. Krushchev’s Secret Speech • Peaceful co-existence • “THAW” • denounces Stalin -- “reformer” • visits US / Nixon to Moscow • Sputnik ‘57 • Castro to power in Cuba ‘59 • Summit with Pres. Kennedy

  11. Kennedy - Khrushchev • Missiles in Turkey • U-2 Shoot-down • Rookies in the White House? • Bay of Pigs • Vienna Summit & “truth” • Khrushchev warns: will make you feel as vulnerable as we feel

  12. Cuban Missile Crisis • High drama • Communication problem • Psychology – zero-sum thinking • Domestic & Foreign “politics” • What qualities to those that prevail ?

  13. Vietnam • Venue change • Domestic politics gets ugly … • Prague Spring; reform pressures ‘68 • Soviet leadership: ' Brezhnev Kosygin (LBJ) • Real complications: Ho, geog, RVN, Chinese & French before

  14. Seventies ... • Nixon & Kissinger • China rapprochement • Carter: “human rights” • Mutual nuclear buildup • Afghanistan ’78, ‘79 • Managing East Europe !! Brezhnev Doctrine & rules

  15. Doctrine of Limited Sovereignty • No CLEAR rules • bilateral relationships; hub • no export of reform; no patterns • no domestic & foreign divergence • no double exposure

  16. Early Eighties ... • Kosygin dead; Brezhnev dying • Andropov / Chernenko leadership • Buildup on cruise-control • Third world adventures (timid) “professional thief” ' • Where have all the believers gone? State proud! • More challenge to manage EE

  17. Thematic shifts ... • Concept: USSR / “Internationale” • Socialism in One Country • Builders of Socialism & Peaceful Co-existence Among Countries with Differing Social Systems • Doctrine of Limited Sovereignty

  18. Gorbachev • Glasnost • Perestroika -- New Union Treaty • NEW THINKING • Perceived problems: treated like pariah non-competitive force = glue holding alliance

  19. NEW THINKING • Soften tone • Create co-operation • arms agreements • seek aid • make state more “typical” • become world “citizen” • NO USE OF FORCE

  20. Questions from SFP … • How ideologically driven was SFP? • Did the structure of the Soviet system influence SFP? • How “aggressive” was SFP? • How central was the military to SFP? • When was force challenged as a basis for SFP? • What was the LEGACY of SFP? • ?

  21. Foreign Policy Structures: Soviet • CC Dept. of International Affairs • Ministry of Foreign Affairs • KGB • Ministry of Defense • “Friendship” Organizations • Ministry of Foreign Trade POLITBURO Council of Ministers

  22. Foreign Policy Structures: Russian • Duma Committees • SVR • Security Council • Foreign Ministry • Defense Ministry • Interdepartmental Committee on Foreign Policy +

  23. Foreign Policy Structures: Russian • PRESIDENT edicts in lieu failed/slow process large scale int’l negotiations control of Security Council memb authoritarian personality • Regionalization / challenge

  24. Official Government Structure Branches of Power

  25. Russian Foreign Policy PLAYERS • DimitryMedvedev, President • Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister • Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs • Nikolai Patrushev, Security Council • Anatoly Serdyukov, Minister of Defense • Director of SVR Foreign Intelligence Agency • Director, GRU Military Intelligence Agency • Director of FSB Federal Security Services • Minister Econ. Dev. & Trade

  26. Capabilities • Military • Economic • Commercial • Diplomatic • Cultural & Scientific • “Mass”

  27. Some domestic factors • Ethnographic Asians, labor, parochialism • Economic Productivity, resources, currency • Political Support, democ, mil, homeostasis, leaders • Attitudinal Non-zero sum, aversion to war, perceived US non-commitment

  28. Politics & Economics ‘90’s • ‘92-’93 politics by default … • the challenge … duma vs. pres. • the new “constitution” • foreign dilemma: support Yeltsin? • Chechnya • Russia in Bosnia & Kosovo • Election ‘95-’96: support Yeltsin? • Massive deterioration ... +

  29. Politics & Economics ‘90’s • August ‘98 Collapse! • Policy drift … • Dec. ‘99 • Jan. ‘00 factors ill indictment maneuver • March ‘00 PUTIN

  30. Models (Cold War remnants) • Détente vs. Linkage • Zero / Non-zero sum thinking • Strategic Indigestibility • Permanent Pre-hostilities • Strategic Ambiguous Equivalence • Parity ? For 21st Century ?

  31. Yeltsin/Kozyrev foreign policy • Prosperity, Stability, Independence • Enhance predictability by following international rules • Dismantle confrontational structures • External relations designed to support domestic development • “Reactive foreign policy”

  32. Kozyrev • “Russia sees no state as hostile to it and will not use force for any purpose other than defense.” • Russian security (operationalized) a function of economics, ecology, demography, energy and health. • Specifics: eliminate tactical nucs support global defense system (GPALS/not SDI) create stable arms control mechanisms

  33. Kozyrev premises … • Multilateralism • Treaty with Japan (peace) • Cooperation with moderate regimes in Middle East • Link with most prosperous LA & African (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Angola, Nigeria & S. Africa) • Gravitate toward democratic states Seeing them as friends

  34. Persistent Russian f.p. debate • Atlanticists – tie future & fortunes to WEST • Eurasianists – variant A tie future to “soviet” sphere East Europe & former republics -- variant B tie future to China & Islamic world

  35. Strategic reflection: Yeltsin & Kozyrev • Russia rejects superpower status because it represents an “effort to decide the world’s destiny” • Russia is a great power based on history, its place in the world and its material and spiritual potential • Russia can become strong by means other than military • “Living without an enemy in foreign policy is difficult for Russians”

  36. Objectives: circa 2000 • increase aid • underline independence • undermine NATO • attract investment • dominate region • create economic dependencies in Central Europe +

  37. Objectives (cont.) • achieve full G-8 status • establish “convertible” ruble • achieve acceptance of “sphere of influence” • embrace requests for re-integration • boost exports • curb outflow of capital

  38. Military CapabilitiesConfiguration of Forces • Air Force, Air Defense, Army, Navy, Strategic Missile Forces • Generic Problems: financial, leadership, manpower force restructuring, materiel • Acute: Chechnya, Black Sea Fleet, Nuclear weapons

  39. Essential Military Realities • First Chechen war ’94 = failure • Yeltsin “reform” of military shoes, pay, one meal a day reduce # generals to 1500 (1/108) raise spending level to Britain • Multi-ethnic confusion • Pilots 10hrs training per year

  40. No major warships at sea • 20,000 nuclear weapons (? functional) • Draft: 11% reporting (many seeking med treatment) • Weapons development thwarted (occasional spasms of image-building) new strategic missile, torpedo, slbm

  41. ARMY • Absence of specialized training • Limitations: terrain, night, urban • Casualty prone tactics; tech sparse • Low morale • Pay problems; manpower (draft) • Soviet breakup reverberations • Spetsnaz; kontraktniks

  42. Air Force • No jet long range bombers • Excellent air combat planes • Problems with training and budgets • Rugged, unrefined approach – pilot focused not tech focused • Career long enlistments 25 yrs • Defense focused • Taran & Night Witches as examples

  43. AIR DEFENSE • Surface to Air (SAM) missiles • Long, Medium & Short range • Airborne Warning & Control Systems (AWACS) • “Early” Warning Radar Systems • Key problems: financial & tech support new boundaries!

  44. Navy • Soviet fleets: Baltic, Pacific, Black Sea • Break-up & crew integrity • Draconian cuts in maintenance & weapons development: Kursk • No rationale for operational global navy • Black Sea fleet; warm water ports • Odessa as key commercial port …

  45. STRATEGIC MISSILE FORCES • Created in 1950s • ICBMs (SS19-24) some from ’60s • Launch on Warning: 9-15 min. • Strike any target in 30 min. • Based in silos, trains, trucks • Topol M newest / SS-27 ?20 • Roughly 700 missiles

  46. Nuclear Arsenal • “raketchiki” • Priority benefits; isolation, patriotism • Danger: early warning systems launch on warning • Security of facilities • Personnel: biorhythms; testing • Implications: key defense; regional capability?

  47. Generalizations about Russian military capability? Implications for us?

  48. PUTIN 2000 • Search for popularity: patriotism order via state tame Chechnya • Igor Ivanov, Foreign Minister • Confront US Missile Defense • Balk at support Balkans/Iraq policy of US gov

  49. Putin Creates DIRECTION … • Longevity … • Aura & commitment in foreign policy • Energize • Key areas: Near Abroad, *Strategic Policy, *Demographics, NATO Chechnya

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