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Scanning the Horizon

Scanning the Horizon. Small Business Trade Association Forum Roger Brentnall. Agenda. Horizon Scanning Background Socioeconomic Trends Shape of Industry Demography Working Patterns Technology “Snippets” Scenarios for 2017. http://www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm. Scanning the Horizon.

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Scanning the Horizon

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  1. Scanning the Horizon Small Business Trade Association Forum Roger Brentnall

  2. Agenda • Horizon Scanning Background • Socioeconomic Trends • Shape of Industry • Demography • Working Patterns • Technology “Snippets” • Scenarios for 2017 http://www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm

  3. Scanning the Horizon What about the future?

  4. Horizon Scanning “…the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including (but not restricted to) those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.” Definition of Chief Scientific Adviser’s Committee, September 2004 “Looking Ahead – Looking Across”

  5. Horizon Scanning To: • inform strategic thinking, planning and target setting; • identify possible changes of direction and emphasis and assist in formulation and delivery of HSE’s strategic programmes. By: • systematically anticipating, identifying and preparing for new or changing risks in workplaces and work activities, which may appear on a 3-10 year horizon.

  6. Key Drivers • Science and technology • The workplace and working practices • Socio-economic trends that affect the labour market • Trends in public attitudes towards risk • The UK political agenda • The European Union • International developments (globalisation)

  7. CO2 Capture & Storage Complex Working Practices Cyber Security Demographics Flexible Working Patterns Future of Keyboards Gene Therapy Human Performance Enhancement Hydrogen Economy Nanotechnology New & Emerging Pests Obesity Pervasive Computing Rapid Manufacturing Recycling Robotics Solvents Directive Sustainability TeraHertz Technology Hot Topics

  8. SocioeconomicTrends

  9. Topics • Shape of Industry • Growth in SME’s • Sectoral Trends • Demography • An Ageing Workforce • Impact of Migrant Workers • Changing Working Patterns • Increasing Flexibility/”Precarious” Working

  10. Growth in SME’s • Of the 4.3 Million Businesses in the UK99% Have <50 Employees • Number of SME’s is Growing at Around 50,000 p.a. • Business Services, Leisure,Catering, Construction • Challenges for HSE • Effective Communication • H&S Management • Appropriateness of Guidance

  11. Sectoral Trends Source: BERR Enterprise Directorate

  12. An Ageing Workforce • Population Trends • By the Late 2020’s 40% of Population Will be Over 50 and 28% of Population Will be Over 60 • Staying in Employment • Those Who Enjoy Work & Wish to Carry on vs. Those Who Will be Forced to Continue for Economic Reasons • Workplace Trends • Employment Rate for Workers Over 50 has Increased by 8% Since 1993 • Projected that by 2020 there will be 775,000 People “Economically Active” Over 65 (33% Increase from 2005)

  13. Age-Related Performance • No Evidence for Deterioration in Most Types of Work at Least up to Age 70 (DTI, 2003) • Some Functions such as Knowledge & Reasoning May Improve with Age (Ilmarien, 2001; Griffiths, 1997) • Detection, Recall & Recognition Tasks Tend to Become Less Reliable with Age (Bell, 2005) • Wide Individual Differences in Changes in Cognitive Ability with Age (Wilson, 2002) • Other Factors Likely to be Involved (Diet, Exercise etc.)

  14. Migrant Workers • Recent Influx from “Accession 8” Countries • Poland Heads Top 5 Sources of Migrant Workers: • Over 80% Under 34 Years of Age • Broader Geographical Spread • Range of Occupations but Tending to be Low Paid Source: DWP NI Data

  15. Migrant Workers • Economic and Other Benefits Recognised • Research Report RR502 • No Evidence to Suggest Higher Risk per se • Migrants More Likely to Work in Sectors with H&S Concerns • Health & Safety Implications • Language Skills • Lack of Familiarity with Industry/Type of Work • Different H&S Culture • Access to H&S Training • Knowledge of Rights • Foreign Language Guidance • Dedicated Webpages

  16. Working Patterns • “Flexibility” Increasing • Home/Tele-working, Part-Time, Shift Working, Second Jobs • Employment more “Precarious” • Short-Term Contracts, Agencies, Temporary Workers, Self-Employment

  17. Implications • Need to Ensure Effective (H&S) Training • Increased Risk of Injury to Part Time & Temporary Workers ? • Clarify Responsibility for Management of H&S • Agency vs. Employer • Flexible/Precarious Working • Greater Personal Control, Productivity • Increased Stress, Social Isolation & Work/Life “Blurring” • Monitoring/Ensuring the Safety of Remote Working Locations

  18. Technology Developments

  19. HSE Scenarios for 2017

  20. HSE Scenarios for 2017 Personal responsibility, pro-active adoption of technology, management of risk A Virtue of Necessity Digital Rose Garden Decreased UK global competitiveness Increased UK global competitiveness Blame culture, resistance to new technology, rejection of risk Boom and Blame Tough Choices

  21. Summary • Horizon Scanning Background • Socioeconomic Trends • Shape of Industry • Demography • Working Patterns • Technology “Snippets” • Scenarios for 2017 http://www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm

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