1 / 5

Government E-1275: Nov. 6, 2007 Session #7. The Korean Peninsula

Government E-1275: Nov. 6, 2007 Session #7. The Korean Peninsula. Balance of Power on the Korean Peninsula. ’60s-’70s: ROK-DPRK as “relative equals” (Cha, p. 49, 59-60). June ’50: DPRK’s strategic “window of opportunity.” U.S. conventional & nuclear forces in ROK:

chaka
Download Presentation

Government E-1275: Nov. 6, 2007 Session #7. The Korean Peninsula

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Government E-1275: Nov. 6, 2007Session #7. The Korean Peninsula

  2. Balance of Power on the Korean Peninsula • ’60s-’70s: ROK-DPRK as “relative equals” (Cha, p. 49, 59-60). • June ’50: DPRK’s strategic “window of opportunity.” • U.S. conventional & nuclear forces in ROK: • nuclear cannons, nuclear-tipped missiles, Atomic Demolition Mines (ADM). • frequent joint military exercises (Cumings, pp. 52-54). • Declining position of DPRK: • End of Cold War; China’s role (Cumings, p. 58). • Economic crises/famines in the 90s; ROK’s economic miracle. • DPRK’s provocations: • Troop maneuvers in Joint Security Area (JSA) in Panmunjom (’95); Taepodong missile test over Japan (Aug. ’98); naval incursions into ROK waters (June ’99). • Cha’s interpretation: DPRK resorts to military provocations due to its declining relative power vis-à-vis ROK/U.S. • Cumings’ interpretation: DPRK reacts to U.S. military exercises/ provocations.

  3. The 1st Nuclear Crisis • DPRK’s announcement to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in March ’93. • Response to U.S. provocations (Team Spirit exercises, nuclear weapons, war games); IAEA’s demands for “special inspections” of undeclared sites (Cumings, p. 65). • DPRK’s withdrawal of fuel rods into cooling ponds (May ’94); Clinton administration’s preparations for war (June ’94). • Former President Jimmy Carter’s visit to Pyongyang (June ’94). • The October 1994 Framework Agreement: in return for suspension of nuclear activities, light-water reactors (LWR) provided by Korea Energy Development Organization (KEDO).

  4. Second Nuclear Crisis (Oct. ’02-) • U.S. policy: • Pres. Bush’s “Axis of Evil,” State of the Union Speech (Jan. ’02). • Assistant Sec. State James Kelly’s visit to Pyongyang (Oct. ’02-). • refusal to arrange for bilateral talks/deals toward U.S.-DPRK diplomatic normalization. • Proposal for a “grand bargain” (M. O’Hanlon/M. Mochizuki). • DPRK’s motivations: provocative gestures to extract concessions. • Missile test (Aug. ’98): over northern Japan. • Missile test (July ’06): Nodong succeeded, Taepodong failed; Carter/Perry op-ed. • Explosion of small nuclear device (Oct. ’06). • ROK diplomacy: • President Kim Dae Jung (’97-’02)’s “Sunshine Policy”; President Roh Moo-hyun inherited this policy (’02-’07). • Certain level of distrust b/w Seoul & Washington, D.C.

  5. The Six-Party Talks (Aug. ’03-) • U.S.: DPRK’s nuclear weapons as a global threat. • Links to the “global war on terror”; DPRK’s transfer of nuclear weapons to terrorists. • Unilateral disarmament (Libya) without concessions as a model (Park, p. 79). • Japan: • Concerns about DPRK’s missile capabilities (Nodong). • Politicization of the abduction issue; fear that U.S. may abandon Japan. • ROK: • Anti-Americanism and President Roh Moo-hyun’s election in Dec. ’02. • DPRK: weakness and state failure as a main problem. • Korean nationalism: Oct. ’07 summit b/w Roh and Kim Jong Il. • China: • Skepticism about DPRK’s nuclear weapons capability. • Strong interest in status quo: strikes/protests in northeast China; food & oil supplies to DPRK. • Beijing’s interest in taking leadership in Asia’s multilateral forum. • The Paradox: Who can and want to apply pressure to DPRK.

More Related