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Adaptation to CC in African Forests

Adaptation to CC in African Forests. UNDP Accra. Forest Model. Emission Scenario. Climate Outcome. Ecosystem Model. Timber Response. Carbon Response. Economic Outcome. Ecosystem Model. Predicts boundaries of biomes (grassland, forest, savannah, desert) Predicts fire Predicts NPP

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Adaptation to CC in African Forests

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  1. Adaptation to CC in African Forests UNDP Accra

  2. Forest Model Emission Scenario Climate Outcome Ecosystem Model Timber Response Carbon Response Economic Outcome

  3. Ecosystem Model • Predicts boundaries of biomes (grassland, forest, savannah, desert) • Predicts fire • Predicts NPP • Predicts carbon storage • Predicts how all of the above factors shift with climate change scenario

  4. Timber Model Volume Age

  5. Shape of Volume Function • Almost all life forms are S shaped • Implies percentage growth rate falls over time (with age) • Average growth rises over time to maximum and then falls

  6. Percentage growth % Growth Interest rate Age

  7. Economic Model of Timber • Maximize present value of timber, W • W=P*V(A,T)exp(-r*A)-C/(1-exp(-rA)) • Optimal age A, maximizes W, and depends on temperature, T, and C is cost of plantation

  8. Climate Change Effects • Climate change will move boundaries of forest (suitable land) • Climate change will alter NPP- growth of trees • Climate change will alter fire frequency

  9. Adaptation • Harvest trees early if vulnerable to increased chance of fire or if slow growth • Plant new tree species if will do better during lifetime of tree • Plant only in land suitable for trees (adapt to changing boundaries of biome) • More (less) intensity (fertilizer other inputs) if more (less) productive

  10. Suppose CC Reduces Growth Original % Growth New Interest rate Age

  11. Including Carbon Storage • Carbon is captured in body and roots of tree • Trees take carbon out of atmosphere • Trees help mitigate greenhouse gas problem • Carbon is proportional to volume

  12. Impact of including carbon • If farmers are given an incentive to store carbon, they will include this incentive into their harvest and planting decision • Carbon payments make forests more profitable (expand forest area) and make longer rotation ages more profitable

  13. Examine case study • Loblolly pine • Examine timber alone • Add carbon benefit • Introduce CC on timber • Introduce CC on timber plus carbon • Assume P=$.15/bdft, C=100, R=.04 • Assume carbon price=$5/ton/yr

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