Improvements to Modeling Emission Estimates: Phase 1 Findings and Recommendations

1. Improvements to the Spatial and Temporal Representativeness of Modeling Emission Estimates:Phase 1 Findings and Recommendations Presented by: Lyle R. Chinkin Stephen B. Reid Sonoma Technology, Inc. Petaluma, CA Presented to: The CCOS Technical Committee Sacramento, CA November 28, 2006 906036.04?-????

2. Project Overview – Phase 1 • Objective: • Assess spatial and temporal allocations applied to base-year and future-year anthropogenic emission inventories (EI). Identify potential improvements. • Key Benefits: • Identify strengths and areas for improvement in the spatial and temporal allocations of the CCOS EIs. • Rank the potential impacts of suggested improvements on the EIs. (Facilitate cost effective plan for Phase 2.)

3. Project Overview – Phase 2 • Objective: • Implement improvements by developing specific methods or data sets to spatially and temporally allocate anthropogenic emissions. • Key Benefits: • Improve photochemical modeling results by characterizing more accurately the temporal and spatial variations in ozone precursor emissions. • Increase confidence in the accuracy of the EIs’ spatial and temporal variations.

4. Today’s Agenda • Review and discuss the findings and recommendations produced during Phase 1. • On-road mobile sources • Area, off-road mobile, and point sources. • Discuss potential plans for Phase 2. • On-road mobile sources $215k • Area, off-road mobile, and point sources $140k • Final report and meetings $20k

5. On-Road Mobile Sources • Findings and recommendations will be presented by Tom Kear of Dowling Associates, Inc.

6. Temporal Representativeness of Non-road, Area, and Point Sources Presented by: Lyle R. Chinkin Stephen B. Reid Sonoma Technology, Inc. Petaluma, CA Presented to: The CCOS Technical Committee Sacramento, CA November 28, 2006 906036.04?-????

7. Background (1 of 5) • Temporal codes are used to assign applicable temporal allocation factors (TAFs) to emission sources. • TAFs allocate annualized emissions to: • Months of the year • Days of the week • Hours of the day

8. Background (2 of 5) Statewide emissions associated with various day-of-week profiles Statewide emissions associated with various diurnal profiles

9. Background (3 of 5) Temporal variations in NOx and ROG emissions by major source type

10. Background (4 of 5) Temporal variations in NOx and ROG emissions by major source type

11. Background (5 of 5) Year-2002 annual-average emissions by major source type

12. Overview of Approach (1 of 3) • Visually examined the temporal distribution of emissions • Assessed existing temporal profiles and their general usage • Identified and evaluated the temporal characteristics of key source categories • Investigated alternatives (e.g., literature search).

13. Overview of Approach (2 of 3) Key NOx sources by region

14. Overview of Approach (3 of 3) Key ROG sources by region

15. Types of Potential Improvements • Corrections to temporal profile assignments for specific sources/regions • The incorporation of readily-available data that would increase the accuracy of temporal emission variations for specific sources/regions • The collection of new data that would increase the accuracy of temporal emission variations for specific sources/regions

16. Key Findings and Recommendations (1 of 7) • Mis-assignments in the temporal cross-reference file need to be corrected.  Day-of-week variations in emissions for the SF air basin.

17. Key Findings and Recommendations (2 of 7) • Update other temporal profile assignments in the temporal cross-reference file. Diurnal profiles assigned to residential natural gas combustion.

18. Key Findings and Recommendations(3 of 7) • Double-check diurnal and day-of-week temporal profiles for trains in the San Francisco Bay Area. Emissions from trains in the San Francisco Bay Area peak on the weekends.

19. Key Findings and Recommendations(4 of 7) • Apply consistent temporal profiles for fuel combustion. Diurnal profiles for service and commercial fuel combustion (pictured) and for manufacturing fuel combustion vary widely between air basins and sometimes within air basins.

20. Key Findings and Recommendations (5 of 7) • Apply temporal profiles recommended by STI (2001)—e.g., for architectural coatings.

21. Key Findings and Recommendations (6 of 7) • Develop and apply temporal profiles for petroleum marketing. Current diurnal profiles are unlikely to represent weekend conditions. Flat monthly profiles (not pictured) can be updated based on statewide gasoline sales.

22. Key Findings and Recommendations (7 of 7) • Verify the magnitude of snowmobile emissions • Other (low-priority) recommendations - Develop diurnal profiles for commercial jets in the SFBA - Analyze CEM data for major point sources - Double-check seasonal patterns for planned burning

23. Phase 2 Priorities and Costs for Temporal Representativeness

24. Spatial Representativeness of Non-road, Area, and Point Sources Presented by: Lyle R. Chinkin Stephen B. Reid Sonoma Technology, Inc. Petaluma, CA Presented to: The CCOS Technical Committee Sacramento, CA November 28, 2006 906036.04?-????

25. Background (1 of 3) • For area and non-road sources, spatial allocation factors (SAFs) are used to spatially distribute county-level emissions. • Current SAFs derived from spatial surrogates developed by STI in 2001 from: • Land use and land cover data • Demographic and socioeconomic data • Location-based information • 65 base-year surrogates and 26 future-year surrogates (2005, 2010, 2020) are available

26. Background (2 of 3)

27. Background (3 of 3) • For point sources, location coordinates are available for individual facilities/stacks.

28. Overview of Approach • Visually examined the spatial distribution of emissions • Assessed existing spatial surrogate data and its general usage • Identified and evaluated the spatial distribution of key source categories • Investigated alternatives (e.g., literature search).

29. Key Findings and Recommendations (1 of 5) • Point source locations have been reviewed by ARB and STI and no discrepancies were found. • Update the spatial surrogate cross-reference file for area and non-road mobile sources. Issues include: - 49 unique EIC codes missing - Over 1,600 county/EIC code combinations unaccounted for - Current scheme makes limited use of available surrogates (14 of 65 available surrogates not utilized)

30. Key Findings and Recommendations (2 of 5) • Outdated spatial surrogate data need to be updated, especially those that affect the majority of the emissions (20 of 65 available surrogates).

31. Key Findings and Recommendations (3 of 5) • Future-year spatial distributions need to be prepared so that they represent future land use patterns. Future urbanization (red) overlaid on base-year agricultural lands (green) produces affected agricultural lands (blue) for future years.

32. Key Findings and Recommendations (4 of 5) • The spatial distribution of recreational boats should account for popularity or restrictions on boating use at different bodies of water. Survey results (right) produce a different spatial distribution than simple surface area of water (left) in the Midwest.

33. Key Findings and Recommendations (5 of 5) • The spatial distribution of construction activities should be improved for the base year and future years, potentially on the basis of construction permits and proposed developments. Residential completions in 2002 for Greater Phoenix.

34. Phase 2 Priorities and Costs for Spatial Representativeness

35. Recommended Tasks for Phase 2 Funding

36. Recommended Tasks for Phase 2 Funding

37. Potential In-Kind Actions ($50k-$60k)

38. Additional Tasks for Consideration

39. Discussion Questions or comments?