CGE TRAINING MATERIALS- VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION (V&A) ASSESSMENT

1. CGE TRAINING MATERIALS- VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION (V&A) ASSESSMENT Chapter 2 Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

2. PART 1: Introduction, Planning and Adaptation Frameworks

3. Objectives and Expectations • Having read this presentation in conjunction with the related handbook, the reader should: • Recognize the rationale for the need for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments • Be familiar with key terms, concepts and purposes of V&A assessments • Identify the various options that can be taken into consideration when undertaking a V&A assessment • Be able to use Planning and Adaptation Frameworks suited to respective national circumstances. 3

4. Some Introductory Remarks

5. Update of the Training Materials • The previous version (2005) is outdated and the updated version reflects the following: • Important findings from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (2007) • Significant update of methods, tools and data requirements for V&A assessment • Experience from Parties in undertaking national communications • The existing structure of the previous training material was maintained, to ensure continuity and consistency.

6. Update of the Training Materials: A Template Approach

7. Handbook Structure

8. Important Sources of Related Information • UNFCCC (2008) Resource guide for preparing the national communications of non-Annex I Parties (Modules 1-4) <http://unfccc.int/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/items/2625.php> • UNFCCC (2008) Compendium of methods and tools to evaluation impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change”: <http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/methodologies_for/vulnerability_and_adaptation/application/pdf/consolidated_version_updated_021204.pdf> • UNDP-NCSP(2006) National Communications Support Programme Resource Kit.http://ncsp.undp.org/sites/default/files/NatCom%20Process.pdf • PROVIA Guidance on Assessing Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, 2012 draft, http://bit.ly/provia_act4

9. “To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail” • Methods or models do not provide answers, but can help us gain insights • The first step is to consider the question(s) being asked.

10. Some Questions to Begin a V&A Assessment • What is of concern? • Food production, water supply, health? • Concerns may not be expressed in climate terms, e.g. extreme temperatures, but in terms of consequences of climate change for people. • Who may be affected? • How far into the future is of concern? Note: concerns may focus on current risks (which could be made worse by climate change).

11. Some Questions to Begin a V&A Assessment • For what purpose is the assessment to be used? • Raising awareness (education)? • Policy making (e.g. to inform a particular decision). • What kind of output is needed?

12. Additional Questions Before Starting the V&A Assessment • What resources are available to conduct the study? • Money • Staff • Expertise • Data • Regional linkages • Relationships with donors and development partners. • How much time is available?

13. Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study • You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with “the previous questions. • Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions.

14. Different Questions May Lead to Different Approaches • Questions about how climate change may affect resources may lead to analysis of long-term impacts (e.g. out to 2100). • Questions about adaptation may lead to analysis of vulnerability within a planning horizon (e.g. 5 to 50 years)

15. Who is Asking the Question(s) May Determine How the Work is Done • Some may be content with research that is conducted by the researchers • Others may wish for a hands-on approach: e.g. Involve stakeholders in conducting the analysis and also shaping outputs by helping with sectoral and geographic prioritization.

16. Bottom Line: • What information is needed? • When is the information needed? • Who needs the information?

17. Impacts of Climate Change • Impact is typically the effect of climate change: • For biological systems, it can be change in productivity, quality, population, or range • For societal systems, it can be a change in income, morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being.

18. Adaptation • Adaptation refers to initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems, against actual or expected climate change effects. • Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory and reactive, and autonomous and planned. • Examples include: raising river or coastal dikes, the substitution of more temperature-shock resistant plants for sensitive ones, etc. (IPCC, 2007) • This may not include “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate .

19. Adaptation (continued) • Two types of adaptation: • Autonomous adaptation ( or reactive adaptation) tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent • Anticipatory (or proactive or planned) adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change.

20. Adaptation Learning Cycle Four broad iterative tasks of an adaptation learning cycle:

21. Decision Trees: support the identification of critical tasks and methods PROVIA (2012)

22. Empirically Based Methods Empirically based methods refer to the gathering of observable data to formulate and test a hypothesis and come to a conclusion. These methods often require the commitment of substantial resources.

23. Theory-driven Approach • A theory-driven approach, makes use of existing theoretical insights into the nature and causes of vulnerability to select variables for inclusion, although in practice this necessarily occurs within the limits placed by data availability. • This inevitably leads to subjectivity in the choice of indicators, but that can be addressed by ensuring all decisions are grounded in the existing literature and made fully transparent.

24. Characteristics of the Climate Hazards

25. Characteristics of the Affected Actors

26. Characteristics of the Adaptation Options

27. Identifying Tasks Based on Adaptation The looped circles indicate that once a task has been identified and a method applied, the process should be repeated, based on the new adaptation situation to identify the next task. PROVIA (2012)

28. Impact and Capacity Analysis Impact analysis Resource constraints Time constraints Lack of data Large uncertainties Participatory setting Private sector National prioritizing Analyse future impacts or current state? Capacity analysis • The focus on impact analysis or capacity analysis, is often not determined by clear-cut criteria: • Impact analysis may be more appropriate to identify priorities for national or regional adaptation interventions or deeper analysis • Capacity analysis may be more appropriate to identifying and designing actions at local levels. PROVIA (2012)

29. High-order Decision Tree for Capacity Analysis Capacity of whom? Private Organizational self- assessment Public Quick high-level screening in order to prioritize further analysis Purpose of the analysis? Adaptive capacity indication Identification of public adaptation options Public capacity analysis PROVIA (2012)

30. Analysing Impacts • Analysing observed or expected impacts of climate change (with and without adaptation). Tasks and methods associated with this sub-task will be called impact-analytical approaches. • Analysingthe capacity to prevent, moderate or adapt to these impacts requires a diverse range of approaches including indicators, behaviour-analytical and institution-analytical approaches

31. Impact-analytical Methods

32. Decision Tree to Identify Impact Analytical Tasks and Methods PROVIA (2012)

33. Impact-analytical Methods

34. Impact-analytical Methods (continued)

35. Decision-tree: Choosing Tasks Relevant to Analysing Capacity Decision-tree for choosing tasks relevant to analysingcapacity from a public perspective in order to identify options PROVIA (2012)

36. Entry Point: Public Adaptation Problem in Which the Analyst Must Consider the Critical Tasks for Influence the Adaptation of Other (Private) Actors

37. Decision Tree Institution-analytical Tasks PROVIA (2012)

38. Decision-tree for Choosing the General Approach to Decision-making PROVIA (2012)

39. Empirical Methods Empirically based methods refer to the gathering of observable data to formulate and test a hypothesis and come to a conclusion(s). These methods require often substantial resources to be committed.

40. Methods for Selecting an Option From a Set • Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) • Cost-effective analysis (CEA) • Multi-criteria analysis (MCA). • The criteria for selecting between CBA, CEA and MCA are based on which outcome attributes are of interest to the decision maker. • If all attributes can be assigned one common attribute of money, then CBA is appropriate. • If only one of the attributes cannot be assigned as a money attribute, then CEAis appropriate. • When two or more attributes cannot be assigned a common monetary attribute (and also cannot be expressed in one common attribute) MCA is appropriate.

41. Selecting an Appropriate Decision-making Method Based on Characteristics of the Adaptation Situation

42. Selecting an Appropriate Decision-making Method Based on Characteristics of the Adaptation Situation (continued)

43. PART 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

44. Overview of Frameworks • Description of some vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) frameworks • One size does not fit all • Select a framework or method that best suits: • The questions being asked • Who is asking them • What kind of answers are needed • What resources, time data and technical support are available • Have you used one before.

45. “Start with the end in mind”

46. Two Types of Frameworks • Impacts: • Also known as “first generation” or “top down” • Adaptation: • Also known as “second generation” or “bottom up”.

47. The Top-down Approach versus the Bottom-up Approach

48. Impacts Frameworks • These frameworks are driven by the need to understand long-term consequences: • Tend to look out many decades (to 2100 or beyond) • Tend to be scenario driven

49. Adaptation Frameworks • These frameworks are driven by the following: • The need to supply useful information to stakeholders: • They tend to address near-term concerns • Often address climate variability and change • Emphasis is on the socio-economic context • Stakeholder identification of issues and involvement in process: • Bring in analysis as necessary and appropriate • Can use consultative/consensus-building techniques.

50. Adaptation Continuum (Source: McGray et al., (2007) in Klein and Persson, 2008)