Risk and Vulnerability Assessment in the Climate Change Adaptation Process

1. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment in the Climate Change Adaptation Process Jeff Zukiwsky Zumundo Consultants Fernie, Canada March 25, 2010

2. Agenda Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

3. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Risk/ Vulnerability Assessment • Develop a team • Create a plan • Engage and inform stakeholders • Understand potential future climate scenarios • Identify planning areas/ sectors affected by climate change • Develop strategies to address key risks/ vulnerabilities • Implement • Monitor Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

4. Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment • Risk-based Approach • Vulnerability Assessment • Hybrid – Combined RA/VA Approach • Kimberley ‘working group’ approach Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

5. The Risk-Based Approach • Grounded in ISO/CSA Risk Management standards • Guidebooks for Alberta, Ontario, Caribbean, Arctic, and BC Municipalities • Adopted and modified by Australia Federal Gov. (workshop approach) • Tested in several CCA Plans: • Chicago, IL • Toronto, ON • Halifax Regional Municipality, NS • Micronesia and The Cook Islands Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

6. The Risk-Based Approach • 3 Step Risk Assessment Process • Risk Identification (Preliminary Analysis) • Risk Estimation • Risk Evaluation From: ISO/CSA Risk Management standards Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

7. The Risk-Based Approach Step 1: Risk Identification: • Identify ‘planning areas” within the communit • Develop ‘risk scenarios’ for each planning area (impact mapping or linear flows) • Consider: • Include a verb in every scenario • Aim for a cause effect statement Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

8. The Risk-Based Approach Step 2: Risk Estimation • Estimate probability and consequence for each ‘risk’ identified in step 1 • Sample Consequence Scale Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

9. The Risk-Based Approach Step 2: Risk Estimation • Sample Consequence Scale Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

10. The Risk-Based Approach Step 2: Risk Estimation • Sample Likelihood / Probability Scale Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

11. The Risk-Based Approach Step 3: Risk Evaluation • Assemble risk ratings (probability x consequence) on a risk matrix or risk table • Evaluate costs and benefits of each risk • Manually adjust any risks found to have been over or under-rated Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

12. The Risk-Based Approach Step 3: Risk Evaluation • Sample Risk Evaluation Matrix Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

13. The Risk-Based Approach Step 3: Risk Evaluation • Sample Risk Evaluation Table Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

14. The Risk-Based “Workshop Approach” From: Government of Australia (2008) Risk Assessment Workshop After Workshop Before Workshop Define scope Identify stakeholders Develop climate scenarios Agree on evaluation frameworks Define ‘key elements’ Treated immediately without further analysis Set aside without further action for the time being Requires more detailed analysis Identify threats and opportunities Assess threats and opportunities Evaluate threats and opportunities Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

15. The Vulnerability Assessment Approach • Initiated by the IPCC • Recommended by: • NRCAN • C-CIARN • Used primarily in: • Academic journals • Developing countries Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

16. Vulnerability Assessment IPCC 4AR: 7 criteria to identify ‘Key Vulnerabilities’ • Magnitude • Timing • Persistence and Reversibility • Likelihood • Potential for adaptation • Distribution • Importance of the system Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

17. Vulnerability Assessment • NRCAN Model • Steps 2 – 4 are the “VA” • Assess current situation • Estimate future conditions • Estimate future vulnerability Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

18. Vulnerability Assessment • Vulnerability influenced by: • Adaptive capacity: • Ability to moderate damages and cope with consequences • Coping Ranges: • The range of circumstances within which significnt impacts do not occur • Critical Thresholds • Upper and lower boundaries of coping range Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

19. Vulnerability Assessment • Ford & Smit (2004) • V = f (E, A) • Vulnerability is a function of exposure and adaptive capacity Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

20. Hybrid Approach • CIG Guidebook • Vulnerability Assessment followed by Risk Assessment Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

21. Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook • Vulnerability Assessment • Vulnerability = sensitivity x adaptive capacity Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

22. Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook • Risk Assessment • Risk = Consequence x Probability Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

23. Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook • End Result: • Priority planning areas based on risk and vulnerability assessment Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

24. Hybrid Approach- District of Elkford • Same as CIG, but substituted consequence for vulnerability in the risk assessment process • “Workshop’ approach Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

25. Hybrid Approach- District of Elkford • Sample: • Wildfire Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Summary Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

26. Kimberley “Working Group” Approach • Used climate science, local observations, and input from workshops and community survey to identify priority issues: • Water and Forests • Municipal Infrastructure • Tourism • Multi-stakeholder working groups formed to conduct vulnerability assessment and identify adaptive actions for each issue • 1stmeeting: • Identify and screen vulnerabilities: • Sensitivity • Adaptive capacity • Vulnerability • 2nd Meeting • Outline adaptation actions for Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

27. What about opportunities? Impact (e.g. prolonged outdoor recreation and summer tourism) Opportunity (e.g. increased revenue for tourism businesses) Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

28. Opportunity Assessment Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment Adopted from Hilson (2002)

29. Opportunity Assessment Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment Adopted from Hilson (2002)

30. Summary Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

31. Summary Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

32. Summary Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

33. Summary Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

34. Selecting a RA/VA Approach • Which process struck a cord with you? • Which process seems most appropriate for your community? • What is your capacity/ resource availability? Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

35. Selected References • Australian Government (2008) Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Retrieved November 22, 2009 from: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/local-government/risk-management.aspx • Black, Bruce, & Egener (2009) Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-Based Guide for Alberta Municipalities. Retrieved November 22, 2009 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/176a_e.pdf • Carter, Parry, Nishioka , & Harasawa (1994) Technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations. University College London, England and Centre for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, 59 pp • Harford, D. (2008) Climate Change Adaptation: Planning for BC. Retrieved from Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions website: www.pics.uvic.ca/research.php • Hilson, D (2002) Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. International Journal of Project Management, 20, 235–240. • Noble, Bruce, Egener, (2005) An Overview of the Risk Management Approach to Climate Change in Canada. Retrieved March 11, 2010 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/NobleBruceEgener2005_e.pdf • NRCAN (Natural Resources Canada) (2007) From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. Chapter 8 –British Columbia. Retrieved November 28, 2009 from http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php • Parzen, J. (ed). (2008). Chicago Area Climate Change Quick Guide: Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change. For Municipalities and Other Organizations. Retrieved March 9, 2010 from: http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/Chicago_Quick_Guide_to_Climate_Change_Preparation_June_2008.pdf • Schneider, Semenov, & Patwardhan, (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Chapter 19, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp • Snover, Whitely Binder, Lopez, Willmott, Kay, Howell, & Simmonds. (2007). Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA. • Halifax Regional Municipality (2007) Climate Change: Developer's Risk Management Guide. Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment