CGE Training materials - VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Assessment CHAPTER 9

1. CGE Training materials - VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION AssessmentCHAPTER 9 Integration, Mainstreaming, Monitoring and Evaluation

2. Chapter Objectives and Expectations • Having read this presentation, in conjunction with the related handbook, the reader should: • Recognize the relevance of options for integration both across, and within the sectors in the framework of the vulnerability and adaption (V&A) assessment, • Differentiate between cross-sectoral and multisectoral integration and their importance in linking related sectors and various multi-economic sectors. • Be able use methods of ranking sectoralprioritesand for assessing interdependencies of adaptation options. 2

3. Outline • Integration of results • Cross-sector and multisector integration • Setting priorities (V&A action) • Mainstreaming • National/subnational scale • Sectoral policies – development priorities • Monitoring and evaluation

4. Why is Integration Important? • Impacts do not happen in isolation: • Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect another • Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly • Others just indirectly • Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the effect of climate change in another sector • In addition, integration is necessary for ranking V&A options.

5. Main Types of Integration of Results • Integrating impact assessment outcomes: • Cross-sector integration: • Link related sectors • Multisector: • Economy or system wide • Integrated assessment models • Economic models • Integrating adaptation assessment outcomes.

6. Climate Scenarios to Integration Dry summer spell illustration: When, and which action is needed on which timescale: in 10 or 50 years?

7. Hydrological Run of Data of Rivers as Integrator Proxis (2 stations: Rhine River)

8. Integrating Impact Assessment

9. National Circumstances – Need for Integration Illustration from Switzerland: snow and glacier melt and flooding - events that are often interdependent.

10. Cross-Sector Integration

11. Cross-Sector Integration • In the initial national communications there were challenges in drawing cross-sectoral linkages between sectors more so when there is too much focus on sector by sector analysis. • Linkages of climate change vulnerabilities across sectors are now better understood: • For example the linkages between agricultural impacts, water and health in rural communities – • sectoral assessments are increasingly seeking to address such cross-sectoral issues. • The second national communication of Malaysia states that: • “Using a sector dependence approach wherein mutual reliance amongst sectors is considered, all sectors are found to be directly dependent on water resources, energy and the public health sectors.”

12. Cross-Sector Integration • Qualitative: • Identify links between sectors and highlight the direction of impacts • Rely on the application of expert judgement: • Can be undertaken by the national communications project team, or through an extended process using a broader group of stakeholders. • The use of a wide range of stake holders from more than one or two sectors leads to multi-sectoral integration.

13. Cross-Sector Integration

14. Integration of Adaptation and Mitigation (Source: adapted, from ICIMOD, 2011)

15. Cross-Sector Integration: Linking Model Results Flow Chart of Model Sequencing (Source: World Bank, 2010)

16. MULTI-SECTORIALINTEGRATION

17. Multi-sector Integration • Should be as comprehensive as possible, covering as many affected sectors, regions and populations as possible. • A clear understanding of how society as a whole might be affected by climate change: • Breadth of impacts • Severity of impacts. • Two common approaches: • Economic impacts as common currency (based for example on general equilibrium economic models) • Qualitative prioritization.

18. Multi Sector-Integration Simple approach-Matrix/ranking “It is expected that climate change impacts and vulnerabilities will not occur in isolation. Non- climate factors, linkages between sectors, as for instance the link between glaciers and GLOFs and water resources and energy production and the subsequent impacts on agriculture and human health and settlements should also be taken into consideration” Bhutan SNC

19. Multi Sector-Integration Using outputs of models

20. Multi-sector Integration-Complex • Involves the use of Regional/National Economic Models • A quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy: • Problem with non-market impacts • These are often macro-economic models or general equilibrium models • Extensive data is required • Expensive modelling • Complex in nature • The Communication of assumptions can be a challenge.

21. Sector-by-sector Approach • The information generated is for each specific sector: • Limited by the lack of information within sectors • There is a problem of how to integrate across multiple end points: • Impacts may be measured with different metrics • There is a need to account for many sectors • One drawback of this approach is that it does not capture sectoral interactions.

22. Sector-by-sector Example: Estimates of Damages for India

23. Sector-by-sector Example: Estimates of Damages for Switzerland Estimations for damages Switzerland 2050/2010: Domestic impacts and trade-related impacts on Swiss economy (% of GDP) Requires e.g. General Equilibrium Model (GEM) and a variety of impact studies. Policy significance rather low, output only as good as input

24. Relative Vulnerability Ranking

25. Relative Vulnerability

26. Land-use planning can Visualize Areas at Risk: Flooding risk map (red=avoid settlements) indicates where in settlements evacuation or special protection measures are required (example Visp Valais Switzerland) (Source: Kanton Wallis, 2011)

27. Adaptation Options in River Flooding Prevention (Example: Rhone Switzerland) The river flood protection measure selected, is a function of the objective of protection: Hard structures are used where the protection of established settlements is the objective of protection: soft measures are used where possible.

28. Qualitatively Identifying Linkages: At a minimum • Qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts: • If crops can be examined and not the water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production • Examine as appropriate, livelihoods not single crops. It is easier to move crops to other climate zones than to move people

29. Integrating Adaptation Assessment

30. Integrating Adaptation • Setting priorities across vulnerabilities is important, as it is used to identify adaptation priorities • A variety of tools are available: • Screening tools • Multi-criteria assessment • Cost-benefit analysis. • Consider adaptation capacity planning as part of integration.

31. Process is as Important as Outcome • This is an expression of values, and is not a purely analytic exercise • Include stakeholders and policy makers • Whether you use the qualitative or quantitative approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT! • The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities

32. Adaptation Prioritization (South Africa)

33. Screening Analysis: Crop advisory scheme (Antigua and Barbuda

34. Multicriteria Assessment

35. National Adaptation Capacity Assessment (Source: WRI, 2012)

36. Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in Kazakhstan

37. Cost-Benefit Analysis • Estimate all benefits and costs in a common metric to determine whether benefits > costs • Monetary values often used • Difficulty: what to do about non-market benefits or uncertainties • Difficulty: requires much data and analysis.

38. Cost-Benefit Analysis Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati How many people protected against which risk? Any dam can break!

39. What to Use (Source: UNDP/GEF Adaptation Policy Framework, 2004)

40. Exercise: Prioritize key insights from the sectoral training chapters • What is/are your key point (s) from the sectoral sessions water resources, health, agriculture, coastal resources? • Which conclusions do you draw for priorities on adaptation capacity development and adaptation action in your country?

41. Conclusions • Integration is important to at least identify related impacts: • Analysis of cross-sectoral effects is desirable because there can be surprises • Integration can also be useful for examining total vulnerability and moving from ranking vulnerabilities to ranking of priorities in adaptation action.

42. Mainstreaming Climate Change

43. Mainstreaming “Process of integrating climate concerns and adaptation responses into relevant policies, plans, programs, and projects at the national, sub-national, and local scales” [USAID, 2009]

44. Approach • Find entry points: • Identify links between climate change and national development priorities • Mainstream into policy processes: • National development plans • Implementation challenge: • Ensuring that it is mainstreamed into budgets and financing • Implementation and monitoring.

45. Mainstreaming • A process – not an output • Enabling elements: • Staff and financial resources • Leadership • Skills and knowledge • Time.

46. Mainstreaming Examples: Kiribati • Kiribati is currently mainstreaming climate change into the national development plan and ministerial operational plans but: • Enabling elements limited • Long-term commitment will deliver progress.

47. Conclusion • Mainstreaming provides a mechanism to ensure climate change is considered as part of development • Cross-scale integration is required, to project to national scale • Mainstreaming should be seen as a process – not a product.

48. Monitoring and Evaluation

49. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) • This is a performance assessment tool to: • Improve future programmes and projects through feedback of lessons learned; • Provide a basis for accountability, including the provision of information to the public; • Inform policy and practice • To test assumptions and create opportunities for learning.

50. Evaluation framework • Incorporates: • Activities • Inputs • Outputs • Outcomes • Baselines and indicators to monitor progress.