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Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American & Parapan American Games

Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American & Parapan American Games. Arnold Ashton Ontario Storm Prediction Centre Environment Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Ann Arbor, May 13-15, 2014. PanAm : July 10-26, 2015. Parapan : Aug 7-15, 2015. Scope of Games:.

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Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American & Parapan American Games

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  1. Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American & Parapan American Games Arnold Ashton Ontario Storm Prediction Centre Environment Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Ann Arbor, May 13-15, 2014

  2. PanAm: July 10-26, 2015 Parapan: Aug 7-15, 2015 Scope of Games:

  3. Previous Games: Guadalajara, 2011

  4. Environment Canada’s Role: Two-pronged goal: - Safety and security during the Games - Showcase EC’s advancement in science and technology Enhanced service: - Two PanAm desks + One Briefer desk - Issue VENUE-specific warnings and Tailored venue forecasts

  5. Main Goal(s): Training To create a FRAMEWORK: - CONSISTENCY in forecasts & warnings - ACCURACY in forecasts & warnings - To improve warning LEAD TIMES (and reduce False Alarms)

  6. Severe Weather Warningsareimportant, especially in large crowd scenarios such as the 2015 Games Ottawa Jul 17, 2011 Camrose Aug 1, 2009 • SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN • ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA • AT 12:02 PM EDT TUESDAY 29 MAY 2012. • --------------------------------------------------------------------- • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR: • =NEW= CALEDON • =NEW= NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION =NEW= SHELBURNE - MANSFIELD - NORTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY =NEW= INNISFIL - NEW TECUMSETH - ANGUS =NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY =NEW= BARRIE - COLLINGWOOD - HILLSDALE • STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY • LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY • MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY • ORANGEVILLE - GRAND VALLEY - SOUTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY. • A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT • 70 KM/H THROUGH THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING 2 • TO 4 CM HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H. • SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THE AREA. • THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY • RAINFALL. REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO • PRODUCE TORNADOES. • EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIO RECOMMENDS TAKING COVER • IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. • ==DISCUSSION== • A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. • REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. • END/OSPC SUMMER SEVERE WEATHER Heavy Rain Strong Winds Air Quality Lightning Hail Heat/UV

  7. Severe Weather Warnings, Smog and Humidex Advisories are Issued as Required Forecasts are for broad areas Severe Thunderstorm Warning Weather Warnings are issued on Sub-Region Scale. The Severe Weather can be sub sub regional! Or Points! NEED VENUE WARNINGS!

  8. Observationally-challenged

  9. Compact Weather Stations– station on a stick • Temperature • Humidity • Pressure • Wind Speed and Direction • Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop • High Resolution digital weather camera • Black Globe Temperature Sensor (Heat stress)

  10. Compact Weather Stations– station on a stick • Temperature • Humidity • Pressure • Wind Speed and Direction • Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop • High Resolution digital weather camera • Black Globe Temperature Sensor (Heat stress)

  11. ATMOS Weather Stations– fancier • Temperature • Humidity • Pressure • Wind Speed and Direction (10 m) • Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop • Research grade equipment (WMO guidelines)

  12. Radiosondes– 4 X per day

  13. Wave Rider Buoy Near sailing • Watchkeeper Buoy Events

  14. 4 X-band phased array radars • 2 Lidars (Doppler pointing upwards)

  15. Wind Compass GPS Pressure Logger T/RH (ventilated) EC AMMOS Mobile Mesonet Stations Three units

  16. LightningMappingArray

  17. LightningMappingArray- Google Earthexampleshowingtwostrikes

  18. Courtesy: Dr. David Sills

  19. GUIDANCE from EXPERIMENTAL SUB-KM NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION 250-m grid spacing computational domain Test the ability of new NWP to provide improved guidance for the following events over the GTA: • Heat episodes • Lake breezes • Initiation, evolution, and intensification of intense convective activity

  20. Ontario HourlyAQHI Forecasts Pilot Project Launched during the Pan Am Games for: • Toronto Downtown • Toronto Island • Toronto East • Toronto West • Toronto North • York University • Hamilton Downtown • Hamilton Mountain

  21. Heat and Health

  22. Questions? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pan_American_Games#Venues http://www.toronto2015.org/ Contact: Arnold Ashton Arnold.Ashton@ec.gc.ca

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