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Demographics, Projections, and College Readiness

Demographics, Projections, and College Readiness. Matt Hauer Applied Demography Program. Themes to Highlight. 1) Rapid Population Growth 2) Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition 3) Aging. Population of Georgia, 1900–2010. Millions. Source: US Census Bureau.

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Demographics, Projections, and College Readiness

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  1. Demographics, Projections, and College Readiness Matt Hauer Applied Demography Program

  2. Themes to Highlight • 1) Rapid Population Growth • 2) Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition • 3) Aging

  3. Population of Georgia, 1900–2010 Millions Source: US Census Bureau

  4. Components of Change, 1940–2009 1,020,304 Source: US Census Bureau

  5. Fastest Growing Counties • Of the fastest growing counties in the United States, Georgia has • 3 of the top 20, • 6 of the top 50, and • 9 of the top 100 Source: US Census Bureau

  6. Fastest Growing Counties: 9 of 100

  7. Change in Population, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  8. Change in Population, 2010–2013 82 Counties have lost population since 2010. 35 Counties have negative natural increase. 93 Counties have negative net migration. 6 counties account for 2/3 of all Pop growth since 2010. Source: US Census Bureau

  9. 1) Rapid Population Growth/Decline

  10. Rapid Growth in Urban Areas… • Of the 10 most populous Metropolitan Areas in the US…

  11. … Declining or Slow Growth in Rural Areas

  12. Georgia’s Race Distribution, 1980

  13. Georgia’s Race Distribution, 2010 1980 2010

  14. Georgia’s Race Distribution, 1980–2030 1980 2030 2010 Source: US Census Bureau, and internal population projections

  15. Race and Ethnic Population Change, 1980–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  16. Source: US Census Bureau

  17. Growth, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  18. Growth, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  19. Growth, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  20. Growth, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  21. Change in White Population, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  22. Change in Black Population, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  23. Change in Hispanic Population, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  24. Where Do Babies Come From? Demographic Perspective Number of Women of Childbearing Age

  25. Total Fertility Rate, 2000 Source: GA Vital Statistics

  26. Total Fertility Rate, 2000 Source: GA Vital Statistics

  27. Total Fertility Rates 2000–2009 Source: Internal Estimates

  28. The “Browning” of the South… A Declining Share of White Population A Steady/Increasing Black Population A Rapidly Increasing Latino Population

  29. Educational Outcomes

  30. Source: Pew Hispanic Center

  31. Population Change 1990–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  32. Mock Projection

  33. Mock Projection

  34. Mock Projection

  35. Baby Boom

  36. Baby Boom

  37. Baby Boom

  38. Baby Boom

  39. Population over age 65 is expected to more than double over the next 50 years.

  40. 20-County Area around Albany Georgia

  41. Aging • 65+ Most Rapidly Growing age group • Only part of the Picture…

  42. Conclusions Most rapid growth among youngest and oldest individuals The middle-aged population growing the least

  43. Conclusions Georgia is no longer a black and white state.

  44. Recap • 1) Rapid Population Growth • “Rich get richer, Poor get poorer” • 2) Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition • “Browning of America” • 3) Aging • “The workforce is aging”

  45. Contact Info Matt Hauer (706) 542-9369 hauer@uga.edu www.vinsoninstitute.org

  46. Change in Population 18-64 • Working Age Adult growth will occur. • Growth will occur in Non-White populations. Source: US Census Bureau, Vintage 2012 Projections

  47. Source: IPEDS

  48. Trend lines

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