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PERSONNEL ESTIMATE BRIEF

FOXTROT. PERSONNEL ESTIMATE BRIEF. 26 SEPTEMBER 2014. OBJECTIVE. FOXTROT. To recommend which of the two COAs is more supportable in terms of Personnel Requirement. SCOPE. FOXTROT. MISSION STATEMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF AO ENEMY STRENGTH - Disposition - Capabilities FRIENDLY FORCES

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PERSONNEL ESTIMATE BRIEF

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  1. FOXTROT PERSONNEL ESTIMATE BRIEF 26 SEPTEMBER 2014

  2. OBJECTIVE FOXTROT To recommend which of the two COAs is more supportable in terms of Personnel Requirement

  3. SCOPE FOXTROT • MISSION STATEMENT • CHARACTERISTICS OF AO • ENEMY STRENGTH - Disposition - Capabilities • FRIENDLY FORCES - Disposition - Proposed COA • COAs EFFECT ON PERSONNEL • ADVANTAGE AND DISADVANTAGE OF COA • CONCLUSION

  4. MISSION FOXTROT On order, JTF NOLCOM conducts show of force operations in order to deter NAF aggression that threatens the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic.

  5. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO GEOGRAPHY FOXTROT • Lakuha is a “heart-shape” island province of PH • Total Land area = 95,258 Ha • NE of the PH approx. 100 miles from mainland Luzon • Highest peak Mount Malindig - 1,157 m (3,796 ft.) ASL, located in the southern tip of the island Lacuha Island Gasan

  6. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO LAND DIMENSION FOXTROT • Approx. 83% - hills and mountains area • 17% built-up areas, coastal, swamp, and marshy areas • Terrain is rocky but gentle and undulating • Mountainous interior - home to rare and endangered flora and fauna. Lacuha Island Gasan

  7. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO LAND DIMENSION FOXTROT • Hills drop steeply - maximum elevation of 1,157 m (3,796 ft) ASL • Ideal for sustained defensive operations Lacuha Island Gasan

  8. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO LAND DIMENSION FOXTROT LEGEND: • HILLS AND MOUNTAINS • BUILT-UP AREAS • COASTAL, SWAMP, AND MARSHY AREAS • PLAIN/FLAT • MT. MALINDIG/ HIGHEST PEAK Lacuha Island Gasan

  9. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO LAND DIMENSION Lacuha Island LEGEND: • RESTRICTED TERRAIN • SEVERELY RESTRICTED TERRAIN • AVENUES OF APPROACH Gasan

  10. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO METOC ANALYSIS WEATHER / CLIMATE FOXTROT • Type III Climate – rainfall more or less evenly distributed through out the year/no clear boundary between dry and wet • Double during May – October (Monsoon Season) • Temperature bet 27°C to 32°C • Humidity av e= 78% year round • Ave rainfall 2,034.6 mm • Driest period: January – April • Annual precipitation: 910 mm (36in) • Coastal region: 101-381 mm • Higher ground: 508 mm

  11. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO METOC ANALYSIS WEATHER / CLIMATE FOXTROT

  12. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO METOC ANALYSIS WEATHER / CLIMATE FOXTROT

  13. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO METOC ANALYSIS CLIMATOLOGICAL EFFECTS ON MILITARY OPERATIONS FOXTROT UNRESTRICTED MODERATE RESTRICTION SEVERE RESTRICTION

  14. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs: FOXTROT

  15. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs: FOXTROT

  16. CHARACTERISTICS OF AO EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs: FOXTROT

  17. ENEMY STRENGTH: FLEET Nuvarian flotillas LSD Flotilla Polnocny Flotilla Destroyer Flotilla Frigate Flotilla Support Flotilla Naval infantry brigades 3 Infantry Brigades ARMY One Division - FOXTROT AIR FORCE 2 Fighter Wing (SU 27) 2 Fighter Wing (Mirage 2000) 2 Ground Attack Wing (SU 24 MK) 1 Transport Wing (AN12/ C130) Fighter wing has 81 aircraft each Ground attack wing has 81 aircraft each Transport wing has 45 aircraft

  18. ENEMY DISPOSITION: FOXTROT • Ministry of Defense (MOD) located in San Juan • Chief of Armed Forces and General Staff located at SabanaSeca Naval Base • Fleet HQ and all naval ship units located at SabanaSeca Naval Base • Naval infantry HQ and brigades located at Camp Santiago Marine Base • Air Forces HQ and the 5th and 6th Bomber Wings located at Ramey Air Base • 1st, 2nd, 3rdand 4thFighter Wing based at Buchanan Air Station • Army HQ and all Army brigades located at Fort Allen • Recent reports indicate suspected attempts at establishing Cyber attack capabilities Sabana Seca Naval Base Ramey Air Base NUVARIA Buchanan Air Station Camp Santiago Marin Base Fort Allen

  19. ENEMY CAPABILITIES: FOXTROT • Night Amphibious and Airmobile Operations • Joint Operations involving Nuvarian Fleet, Naval Infantry Bde, Air Wing, and Army Airborne Bde • Heliborne Operations

  20. FRIENDLY FORCES STRENGTH ARMY: 7 ID 51D NAVY: NTF 93 AIR FORCE: 3RD Tactical Air Group Joint Special Operations Group FOXTROT

  21. FRIENDLY FORCES STRENGTH FOXTROT • 5th Infantry Division: • 501st Infantry Brigade: • 502nd Infantry Brigade: • 503rd Infantry Brigade: • Division Recon Battalion • 1ST FAR ( 3FABns X 18 105mm How) • 1 155mm Artillery Battery (GS) • 1 Coastal Battery Exocet MM40 Block 3 (GS) • 1 Battery Stinger B SAM (manpads) • 3rdMech Brigade (-): • 2nd Armored Cavalry Squadron • 4th Mechanized Infantry Battalion • 7th Infantry Division • 701st Infantry Brigade: • 702nd Infantry Brigade: • 703rd Infantry Brigade: • Division Recon Battalion • 2nd FAR ( 3 FABns X 18 105mm • How) • 1 155mm Artillery Battery (GS) • - 1 Coastal Battery Exocet MM40 Block 3 (GS) • 1 Battery Stinger B SAM (manpads) • 4rdMechBn

  22. FRIENDLY FORCES STRENGTH • 3Rd Tactical Air Group • 6 x FA-50 Golden Eagle Light Attack Aircraf • 1 x squadron combat utility helicopters (12 • UH-1H; 4 Eurocopter AS 550; 4 SOKOL • helicopters • 4 x Super Tucano CAS aircraft • 1 x F27 Mar Enforcer • 2 x P-3C Orion Marpat Navy: 1 x Inchon Class Frigate 1 x Hamilton Class Cutter 2 x Minerva Class Corvette 2 x Jacinto Class Patrol Vessel 2 x Logistic Support Vessel 4 x Multi-Purpose Attack Crafts 1ST Marine Brigade with 3 MBLTs FOXTROT • JOINT SPECIAL OPERATIONS GROUP • 1st Special Forces Battalion (1SFB) • 1st Scout Ranger Battalion (1SRC) • 1st Light Reaction Company (1 LRC) • 1st Naval Special Opns Unit (1NAVSOU) • 1st Force Recon Company (1FRC) • 1st Special Opns Squadron (1SOS)

  23. DISPOSITION OF FRIENDLY FORCES 5th Inf Div, PA 7th Inf Div, PA 702nd Inf Bde, 7ID, PA 501st Inf Bde, 5ID, PA 502nd Inf Bde, 5ID, PA 503rd Inf Bde, 5ID, PA 703rd Inf Bde, 7ID, PA Naval Forces Northern Luzon Brgy San Juan Baño, Arayat, Pampanga Brgy San Isidro Norte, Binmaley, Pangasinan Brgy Calanan, Tabuk City, Kalinga Brgy Banguinge, Kiangan, Ifugao Camp Melchor Dela Cruz, Upi, Gamu, Isabela Brgy Suyong, Echague, Isabela Fort Ramon Magsaysay, Palayan City, Nueva Ecija NBCO, Brgy San Vicente, Sta Ana, Cagayan NSEO, Poro Point, San Fernando, La Union CAR Region I Region II TOGs, 1AD TOG1,Loakan Airport, Baguio City TOG2,School,Cauyan City, Isabela Region III TOG3, Camp Aquino, San Miguel, Tarlac City

  24. FRIENDLY FORCES CAPABILITIES: FOXTROT • Air and surface surveillance • Missile attack • Amphibious Operation • Surface to air missile system • Surface to surface missile system • Naval blockade/ Naval Bombardment • Air strike

  25. PROPOSED COAs FOXTROT COA 1 (Light): • JTF NOLCOM to deter the enemy through the conduct of joint training exercise at North East of Lacuha Island

  26. PROPOSED COAs FOXTROT COA 2 (Heavy): • JTF NOLCOM to defend Lacuha Island from enemy aggression by strategically deploying forces within the AO.

  27. COAs EFFECTS ON PERS FOXTROT • COA 1: • Limited personnel deployment • Enhanced personnel readiness • Cohesiveness through training • COA 2: • Expected personnel casualty • Involvement of all personnel • No replacement of personnel (high physical/mental stress)

  28. COAs EFFECTS ON PERS FOXTROT PHASE 1 - COA #1 and COA #2

  29. COAs EFFECTS ON PERS FOXTROT PHASE 2 - COA #1 and COA #2

  30. COAs EFFECTS ON PERS FOXTROT PHASE 3 - COA #1

  31. COAs EFFECTS ON PERS FOXTROT PHASE 3 - COA #2

  32. COAs EFFECTS ON PERS FOXTROT PHASE 4 and 5 - COA #1

  33. COAs EFFECTS ON PERS FOXTROT PHASE 4 and 5 - COA #2

  34. COAs ADV & DISADV FOXTROT

  35. COAs ADV & DISADV FOXTROT

  36. CONCLUSION FOXTROT • PERSONNEL REQUIREMENT OF BOTH COAs CAN BE SUPPORTED • HOWEVER, PERSONNEL REPLACEMENT RATE IN COA # 2 IS LOWER THAN ITS PROJECTED CASUALTY RATE • MEANWHILE, PERSONNEL REPLACEMENT RATE IN COA # 1 IS SUSTAINABLE WITH THE PROJECTED CASUALTY RATE

  37. CONCLUSION FOXTROT DEFICIENCIES TO BE CONSIDERED: - RESERVE FORCE IS NOT PROPERLY TRAINED - MOBILIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE RESERVE FORCE WILL TAKE LONGER TIME - COHESIVENESS OF PERSONNEL IS NOT YET ATTAINED

  38. RECOMMENDATION FOXTROT BASED ON THE PERSONNEL ESTIMATE, COA #1 IS MORE SUPPORTABLE THAN COA #2

  39. FOXTROT END

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