National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview

1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Climate Services Program Managers Meeting February 11, 2011

2. Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service National Hurricane Center Space Weather Prediction Center

3. NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) - Process - Assimilate - Predict Products & Forecast Services Central Guidance Local Offices Respond & Feedback NCEP Distribute IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

4. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

5. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER Tropical Weather Guidance and Forecasts 26 FTE 46 FTE 5

6. EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community 6

7. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations 7

8. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Seasonal Predictions Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : SPC AWC SWPC Hours Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

9. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Ocean Model Hurricane Models North American Forecast Hours Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation • GFDL • WRF Dispersion Models for DHS Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

10. Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 3.5B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Regional DA Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation 10 NOAH Land Surface Model

11. Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models Atmosphere Ocean Cryosphere Land • Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems • Real-time operations require world’s largest computers 11

12. Transition to IBM Power 6 complete Declared operational August 12, 2009 73.1 trillion calculations/sec Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 156 POWER6 32-way nodes 4,992 processors 20 terabytes of memory 330 terabytes of disk space 3.5 billion observations/day 27.8 million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes Web access to models as they run on the CCS Number of Hits (Millions) Computing Capability “reliable, timely and accurate” Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2010 2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

13. Example of Forecast Metric 13

15. Record Scores Record Improvement

16. Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere 500hPa height calendar year means 8.02d Forecast day

19. 2010 (preliminary)

20. Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite • SREF • NAEFS • Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP) • Entering the JPSS era • More rapid access to hyperspectral data • GPS soundings • Higher resolution surface radiance data • All models run within ESMF • Models run concurrently • Hybrid vertical coordinate • Coupled • Spanning all scales • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

21. Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q2FY11

22. National Environmental Modeling System FY11; Q3 12 km 1.5 km Parent (12 km) – 84 hrs Children (6, 4 & 3 km) – 60 hrs IMET (1.5 & 1.33 km) – 36 hrs 6 km 3 km 3 km 4 km 1.33 km Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)  NonHydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (NMMB) -- Physics retuned for NMMB -- Additional data sets: Windsat, ASCAT, ACARS humidity, NOAA-19 (HIRS and AMSU-A), IASI radiances, AQUA (AMSU-A), GPS (radio occultation)

23. EUROSIP Update • MOU signed in July 2010 to include NCEP as EUROSIP partner (along with ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMet) • The EUROSIP hindcast data files have been downloaded to computers VAPOR and STRATUS (in restricted access directories) • CPC has FY11 milestone to develop and test a seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast tool that combines CFS and EUROSIP 23

24. Ecosystem Prediction Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay Current Demonstration Ready for Transition* • Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay • Generated since 2002 • Important for water management and recreational purposes * Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007

25. Climate and Health in Africa Observed and Predicted Meningitis Incidence Rate in logarithmic form - Case of Burkina Faso Base Period: 1968-2005 • Collaborate with NMHS Burkina Faso on predicting meningitis outbreaks • Target countries: Burkina Faso, Niger • Preliminary results suggest NCEP reanalysis can be used to predict epidemic outbreaks • Collaborate with UMD on predicting water-borne diseases • Target countries: Angola, Cameroon, Mozambique, Senegal • Preliminary results suggest role of SST and rainfall in triggering an epidemic disease • Rainfall increase of 277 mm in 7 days, 15-22 Aug 2005 • Cholera outbreak peaks about 30 days later. Yaka et al., 2008 Observed rainfall (blue) and cholera data (red) Case of Dakar, Senegal Constantin & Thiaw, in progress

26. Summary • NCEP is • Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” • Continually improving collaborative forecasts – especially for extreme events • Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach • A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery • Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services with national and international communities 26

27. Appendix 27

28. New Building Status • The developer stopped work in December 2008 when NCWCP construction was 80% complete. • In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government. This claim was dismissed without prejudice in August 2010. In October 2010, the developer filed an appeal; resolution of this appeal is pending. • In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court. In response, the court appointed a “Receiver” to complete the project. In November 2010, the court approved the Receiver’s plan and granted the receiver permission to resume construction. • In December 2010, the Receiver filed a motion to petition the Federal Court to transfer the pending Federal appeal to the County Court. Once transferred, the Receiver can ask that the claim be dismissed with prejudice, after which construction can resumepromptly. • GSA’s goal is to reach project completion approximately 12 months after re-start of construction. GSA’s most current estimate for the building’s substantial completion is March 2012.