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NCEP Polar Prediction Activities and Science Challenges

Dr. David Novak Mr. Joseph Sienkiewicz Science and Operations Officer Chief, Ocean Applications Branch Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction WWRP THORPEX Polar Workshop Oslo, Norway

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NCEP Polar Prediction Activities and Science Challenges

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  1. Dr. David Novak Mr. Joseph Sienkiewicz Science and Operations Officer Chief, Ocean Applications Branch Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction WWRP THORPEX Polar Workshop Oslo, Norway October 6, 2010 NCEP Polar Prediction Activities and Science Challenges

  2. Outline • Operational forecast services • North Atlantic and Pacific • Alaska • Arctic • Science Challenges • Observations and Verification • Ocean – Atmosphere Interaction • Predictability • Climate – Weather Interface

  3. North Atlantic and Pacific Forecast Services Ocean Prediction Center http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ • High Seas • Warnings and Forecasts • Cyclone, wind and wave focus • Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS) • subtropics to low Arctic • Coastal Guidance • Operational Oceanography • portal • analyses / forecasts

  4. Alaska Forecast Services NCEP/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Guidance Land-based human forecast guidance for the Day 3-8 period. Selective consensus/weighting of suite of international model guidance solutions http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml Surface Analysis Forecast Discussions Sensible Weather Element Guidance Surface Guidance

  5. Alaska Forecast Services Weather Forecast Offices • Weather Forecast Offices responsible for watches, warnings, advisories and the local forecast (text, graphical, and gridded) • Human forecasters interpret observational network, NCEP guidance, and local models to make forecasts 6 km grid of Sensible Weather Watch / Warning / Advisories

  6. Arctic Marine Weather Services NCEP/Ocean Prediction Center Guidance • Supported USCG Hamilton on Arctic Mission Sep 2008 • First USCG non-ice breaking/hardened hull in Arctic • Anticipate growing presence and support in Arctic • Working with NWS Alaska Region • Ice services, analysis and prediction • Oceanographic analyses and forecasts • Meteorological services (observation / prediction) • NOAA Ecological services Operations require: “accurate real-time information to mariners on weather, ocean, and ice conditions”1 1Report to Congress, U.S. Coast Guard Polar Operations 6

  7. NWS Alaska Region and Ocean Prediction Center Arctic Web Pagehttp://arctic.arh.noaa.gov/ - Marine focused human forecast guidance - Day 1-5- Oceanographic and probabilistic guidance to Day 3 GEFS Ensemble Probability winds 25 kt or higher NOAA OI SST with Ice Edge Navy NCOM Ocean Surface Current

  8. NCEP Service Centers and ModelsService Drives the Science Outlook Guidance Threats Forecasts Watches Warnings Benefits Service Centers Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months CPC Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP) Lead Time 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage Local Office HPC 1 Week Global Forecast System OPC Ocean Model Wave and Ice Days Short-Range Ensemble Forecast TPC North American Forecast Hurricane Models Hours Rapid Update Cycle AWC SPC • GFDL • WRF Dispersion Models for DHS SWPC Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control 8

  9. Observations and Verification Hazards focused Ocean Atmosphere Ocean and sea-ice modeling Fluxes Predictability Mesoscale modeling Ensembles and ensemble applications Targeted observations Climate – Weather Interface Earth System Models Science Challenges 9

  10. Global Rawinsondes Marine Obs -- 12 Hour Total Aircraft Wind/Temp Reports DMSP Imager – Sfc winds/PW Polar Satellite Radiances (just 2 sat) Drift Winds from Geostationary Satellites Observations and Verification Improved Polar observations  Improved prediction and applications • Limited conventional surface / upper air • Majority are remotely sensed • Harsh environment • Need hazard-focused obs (blowing snow, high winds, ice character, orographic precipitation)

  11. Observations and the Model Production Suite Forecast Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 3.5B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Regional DA Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global, FNMOC NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation 11 11 NOAH Land Surface Model

  12. Ocean – AtmosphereNCEP Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) – (1/12 deg HYCOM) NOAA requires a global eddy-resolving ocean model • NCEP running U.S. Navy 1/12° HYCOM in test mode • NAVOCEANO delivering initialization data daily • NCEP converting Navy HYCOM to GFS/GDAS forcing • Short term - Oct 2010 – Parallel testing phase - April 2011 – first product suite available (NOMADS) • Longer term - In-house analysis and initialization (2014) • Ocean component of coupled Hurricane Forecast System • Ocean component for future Climate Forecast System Coupled to GFS, Ice, LDAS, etc… 12

  13. Ocean – AtmosphereMulti-Grid WAVEWATCH III • Domain expanded to 82.5 deg N in 2009 from 76 deg N • Extension requested by NWS Alaska Region • diminished ice coverage • waves impacting Alaskan Coast causing erosion • 4 minute coastal grids for AK • Polar cap extension of NWW3 in a year or so • Working with NRL on a curvilinear version • 20 member global ensemble • 20 member Navy FNMOC Wave to be added 13

  14. Ocean – AtmosphereExtratropical Storm Surge Pt. Barrow • Coastal erosion due to: • - Reduced sea ice • - Increased wave action • Melting permafrost • - Developed by NWS Meteorological Development Lab (MDL) • - GFS forcing • Hourly output to 96 hrs • No ice, tides 14

  15. Ocean – AtmosphereSea Ice Efforts NCEP Daily Ice Analysis http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/Analyses.html Microwave based AMSR-E/SSMI 12.7 km resolution Daily concentration product Input to models and forecasters Sea Ice for NCEP CFS Modified GFDL Sea Ice Simulator Dynamics - Hunke and Dukowicz (1997) Thermodynamics – Winton 2000 Sea Ice for NCEP GFS 3 layer thermodynamic model since May 2005 Sea ice concentration prescribed Sea ice/snow thickness predicted Planning for improvements beginning Dec 2010 NCEP Ice Drift Model http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/Forecasts.html Grumbine, R. W., Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 886-890, 1998

  16. PredictabilityMesoscale Modeling High-impact weather is often a mesoscale phenomenon • SREF • 6 hourly updating 21 member ensemble forecasts out to 87 h • Expanded 32 km Domain to include Polar Regions NAM • 6 hourly updating forecasts out to 84 h • Expanded 12 km Domain to include Polar Regions with additional 4 km nests Rapid Refresh • Hourly updating forecasts out to 18 h • Expanded 13 km Domain to include Polar Regions WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 model domain (dash) output domain (solid) Original CONUS domain 4 km Experimental 3 km HRRR

  17. PredictabilityShort Range Ensemble Forecast System • Concept - Multi-model moderate resolution (32 km) ensemble for short-range high-impact events • Ensemble generation – 21 members (4 different models) • 32 km • Four times daily with forecasts out to 87 hours • Products – Wide variety of traditional and specific applications (aviation, fire weather, winter weather, etc) Prob Vis < ½ mile Prob Blizzard 17

  18. PredictabilityNorth American Ensemble Forecast System • Concept - Combines MSC and NWS global ensembles to improve probabilistic forecasts • Increased ensemble size • Multi-model, -perturbation, and -physics • Ensemble generation – 42 members • 70 km for NWS model, 100 km for MSC model • Twice daily with forecasts out to 16 days • Data exchange – 80 variables • Basic products – Bias corrected ensemble, climate anomaly forecasts, probabilistic forecasts (10%, 90% and ensemble mean, medium, mode and spread) • Derived products – Downscaled products (5 km), Week-2 temperature, web displays, etc

  19. Predictability Value-added by Multi-center Approach January 2011

  20. PredictabilityNAEFS Plans • Add FNMOC ensemble in January 2011 • Improve basic products – adopt new methods (such as Bayesian Methods • Add new derived products • Bias correct all model output variables on model native grid (~200, 2-3 yrs) • Downscale elements • Extend applications – Intra-seasonal, regional, wave, hydro (river) ensembles • Possible Polar Enhancements • Additional elements • Polar-centric domains Example Polar GEM domain

  21. Predictability NAEFS & THORPEX NAEFS prototype ensemble component of THORPEX Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) RESEARCH THORpex Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Transfers New methods Articulates operational needs North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) OPERATIONS 21

  22. Predictability Targeted Observations Winter T-PARC - take additional observations as the perturbation propagates downstream into Arctic and North America Day -4-6 RAWIN Russia Multi-agency coordination Lead by NCEP Alaska VR Day -5-6 E-AMDAR CONUS VR Day -1-3 C-130 G-IV Day -3-5 G-IV Winter T-PARC 2009 – A THORPEX field campaign

  23. PredictabilityTargeted Observation Verification Winter T-PARC (2009) NCEP WSR Program (2005-2008) OVERALL 75% cases improved 0% cases neutral 25% cases degraded OVERALL 71% cases improved 1% cases neutral 28% cases degraded Consistent with studies (e.g., Langland 2005; Buizza et al. 2007; Cardinali et al. 2007; Irvine et al. 2010) 23 Courtesy Yucheng Song (EMC)

  24. Climate – Weather InterfaceFully Coupled Earth System Model Atmosphere Ocean Chemistry Biology Cryosphere Land For All Applications

  25. NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Application Driver ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) Analysis -------------- Ocean ------------- Wind Waves -------------- LSM ---------------- Ens. Gen. -------------- Ecosystem -------------- Etc Atmospheric Model Dynamics (1,2) Coupler1 Coupler2 Coupler3 Coupler4 Coupler5 Coupler6 Etc. Physics (1,2,3) Chemistry 1-1 1-2 1-3 2-1 2-2 2-3 Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Bias Corrector Post processor & Product Generator Verification Resolution change ESMF Utilities (clock, error handling, etc) * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL 1, 2, 3 etc: NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, NCAR or NOAA institutional commitments

  26. Climate Forecast System (CFS) Version 2 January 2011 26

  27. Climate – Weather Interface Climate Forecast System Version 2 CFS v1 CFS v2 Correlation Correlation Day Day Courtesy: Qin Zhang, CPC • Major upgrade in Jan 2011: • Higher resolution for all earth system components; • Atmospheric assimilation @ T574L64, coupled to 40-level MOM4 ocean model, interactive 3 layer sea-ice model and 4 soil level land model • Daily real time, fully coupled and fully calibrated T126L64 forecasts, will include 4 runs to 9-months, 3 runs to 1 season, and 9 runs to 45 days. • Has skill in predicting ENSO on seasonal time scales and MJO in the week2-week4 range.

  28. Summary • Increasing service requirements for the poles • Enhance observations necessary for improved polar prediction • Understanding and predicting Ocean – Atmosphere interaction a necessity • Development of high-resolution and ensemble models and service applications ongoing • Working towards fully coupled Earth System Model

  29. NCEP Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) – (1/12 deg HYCOM) Pan-Am Global or tri-polar Grid (4500 x 3928) Arctic bi-polar patch above 47 N, Mercator grid 78.6 S – 47 N Coastline at 10 m isobath Open Bering Strait 32 layers, first z-level 3m 17 minutes per model day forecast on 1001 sp5 cpu’s Time step = 180 s (baroclinic) NCODA for preparing initialization fields (at NAVO)

  30. Access to NCEP Products/ServicesNOMADS • NOMADS – NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System • A digital archive and real time distribution of NOAA’s operational weather models • geographically-diverse backup server to ensure operational availability • Built on “pull” technology • Operational February 2009 • Portal for Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (1979-2010) • Created with fully coupled CFSv2 • 1°x 1° grid spacing

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