1 / 8

Aleksanteri Election Seminar: New President, New Russia: What Next? 14 th March 2012

Aleksanteri Election Seminar: New President, New Russia: What Next? 14 th March 2012. Jeremy Smith, Karelian Institute and VERA Centre for Russian and Border Studies, University of Eastern Finland The Problem of Succession in Russia. Three linked aspects of Putin’s agenda:.

cicada
Download Presentation

Aleksanteri Election Seminar: New President, New Russia: What Next? 14 th March 2012

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Aleksanteri Election Seminar: New President, New Russia: What Next? 14th March 2012 Jeremy Smith, Karelian Institute and VERA Centre for Russian and Border Studies, University of Eastern Finland The Problem of Succession in Russia

  2. Three linked aspects of Putin’s agenda: • He is offering nothing new, but stability • Maintenance of personal popularity • Aversion to popular protest

  3. Putin on Elections: “I don’t like election campaigns, I really don’t…I don’t know how to run them, and I don’t like them” August 1999 “As soon as you make it [his election platform] public, they will start gnawing at it and tearing it to pieces” 8th February 2000 [campaigning is an] “absolutely dishonest business…you always have to promise more than your rivals, in order to appear more successful. And I couldn’t imagine myself promising something, knowing that the promises could not be kept.” 26th March 2000

  4. The Problem of Succession in Russian History

  5. Factors accounting for Putin’s 2000 victory (according to Sakwa, 2008) • Orchestrated TV campaign (ORT vs. NTV) • Chechnya • Independent authority as Prime Minister • Restoration of Russia’s International position

  6. Reasons for the Problem of Succession • No clear rules about secession • No consolidated elites – competing groups • Centralised authoritarian power means stakes are high and events in the capital are decisive • Palace guards/army and airforce

  7. Putin’s Popularity Race:The Curse of the Kursk

  8. A Paradox: After centuries of highly contested political succession in Russia, only under the conditions of formal competition (democracy) have Russia’s leaders succeeded in eliminating the contested nature of succession

More Related