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PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES, 1970–71 TO 2030–31

PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES, 1970–71 TO 2030–31. David Gargett Afzal Hossain 13 February 2007. . Background. Arose from need to forecast light vehicle traffic on the national highways. But need to consider all modes. Thus aim is to model drivers of total

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PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES, 1970–71 TO 2030–31

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  1. PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES,1970–71 TO 2030–31 David Gargett Afzal Hossain 13 February 2007 

  2. Background • Arose from need to forecast light • vehicle traffic on the national highways. • But need to consider all modes. • Thus aim is to model drivers of total • passenger travel between cities. • Only then can one predict highway car • travel patterns.

  3. Objectives • Estimation of passenger movements by mode between Australian major cities from 1970-71 to 2003-04. • What will growth be to 2030-31 in passenger movements by mode between Australian cities?

  4. Ten city pairs • Sydney-Melbourne • Sydney-Brisbane • Melbourne-Brisbane • Melbourne-Adelaide • Eastern States-Perth • Sydney-Adelaide • Melbourne and Sydney-Gold Coast • Eastern States-Tasmania • Canberra-Sydney • Eastern States-Northern Territory

  5. Modes • Air • Car • Coach • Rail • Other

  6. Time series Historical Data: 1970-71 to 2003-04 Projections: 2004-05 to 2030-31 Based on GDP (Treasury) Population Growth Rates (ABS) Changes in Fares (various sources)

  7. Main data sources • Designed around tourism data on inter-regional passenger movements. • Because the data has been and continues to be measured by Tourism Research Australia (TRA), to the tune of $4M/year. • TRA surveys both domestic and international travellers about their travel between the regions of Australia. • This data has been assembled for the 10 city pairs by mode from 1970-71 to 2003-04.

  8. Gravity Model Total passenger travel between any two cities (say i and j)can be calculated: Tij = (Pi x Pj x GDPc2)0.524 / (Tc / CPI)-0.565 where Tij - Total trips between regions i and j. Pi and Pj - Total population in region i and region j. GDPc - National gross domestic product per capita. Tc - Real generalised cost of travel. CPI - Consumer Price Index.

  9. Logistic Substitution Model • Forecasts of total travel were converted to forecasts for specific modes by using logistic substitution models of mode split. • For each mode, a competitivenessindex was estimated based on changes in the mode share over the last decade. • A competitivenessindex below 1.0 means the mode is expected to decline over time in share relative to air.

  10. Logistic Substitution Model – Contd. For example, on the short Canberra-Sydney route, the competitiveness indices are: Air - 1.00 Car - 1.02 Coach - 0.98 Rail - 1.03 On the long Sydney-Brisbane route (more typical of the intercity routes), the competitiveness indices are: Air – 1.00 Car - 0.97 Coach- 0.93 Rail - 0.93

  11. Passenger Movements by Mode

  12. Mode Share (per cent)

  13. Average annual growth rates by mode,1970-71 to 2003-04

  14. Average annual growth rates comparison (all modes)

  15. So what do we get ? • An understanding of the drivers of travel. • An understanding of the patterns of mode share change. • A link to a continuing and funded data source updated yearly. • 1 to 3 provide the basis for the OZPASS interregional travel model. • Forecasts out of the OZPASS model are providing forecasts of car traffic along AUSLINK Corridors.

  16. These forecasts are: • Systematic – based on transparent research. • Validated – Bruce Highways over 10 years. • Multi-modal – e.g. current airports project. • Open to scenarios – i.e. policy changes or changes in assumed conditions (e.g. fares).

  17. Summary • On all routes, except Canberra–Sydney route, air travel has been progressively taking mode share from car plus coach and rail. • This effect will be less important in the future as the rate of mode share capture by air slows. • Overall, total passenger travel growth is expected to continue to grow more quickly than GDP. • The relationships found on the 10 corridors have been built into the OZPASS interregional travel model.

  18. FOR A COPY OF THE PUBLICATION VISIT: www.btre.gov.au/Publications/Information Sheet/ Information Sheet 26

  19. Thank you Any question ?

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