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Evaluating Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Pacific Northwest

Ongoing efforts to assess the effects of climate change on water resources in the Pacific Northwest region. This comprehensive study aims to evaluate the impacts of global warming, identify areas of high and low sensitivity to climate change, and recommend actions for adaptation and mitigation. The study is supported by the Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment and the Columbia River Basin Hydrologic Scenarios Database.

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Evaluating Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Pacific Northwest

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  1. Ongoing Efforts to Evaluate Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Pacific Northwest Marketa McGuire Elsner Alan F. Hamlet Kurt Unger Philip W. Mote Eric Salathé Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington WA State Department of Ecology WA State Department of CTED

  2. Increasing Concern About Impacts of Climate Change • Need for an up-to-date comprehensive study of impacts of climate change • Need for improved access to hydrologic scenarios for planning

  3. Ongoing Studies by CIG in the Pacific Northwest • Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment (HB 1303) and Related Executive Order Recommendations on mitigation, preparation, and adaptation for climate change • Columbia River Basin Hydrologic Scenarios Database (HB 2860) PNW

  4. Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303 • Supports emissions reduction and use of alternative fuels via changes in the Revised Code of Washington (RCW) and various funding programs Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx

  5. Infrastructure Human Health Agriculture Water Resources A comprehensive state climate change assessment that includes the impacts of global warming Coast Lines Energy Forest Resources Salmon Adaptation / Legal Barriers

  6. Goals of the WA State Climate Impacts Assessment • Evaluate Impacts of Climate Change in 2020s, 2040s, 2080s • Use IPCC 2007 Climate Scenarios • Show regional impacts and areas of high and low sensitivity to climate change • Characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) and prioritize areas for future action • Collaborate with Governor’s Climate Change Challenge Team To be completed December 2008

  7. Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce CO2 emissions • Make recommendations on improved preparedness and adaptation Preliminary recommendations: December 2007 Final Report: February 2008

  8. Ongoing Studies by CIG in the Pacific Northwest • Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment (HB 1303) and Related Executive Order Recommendations on mitigation, preparation, and adaptation for climate change • Columbia River Basin Hydrologic Scenarios Database (HB 2860) PNW

  9. Improved Access to Hydrologic Scenarios in the Columbia River Basin PNW Funding Source: House Bill 2860 Working in Coordination With Regional Stakeholders • WA State Department of Ecology • Bonneville Power Administration • Northwest Power and Conservation Council • State of Oregon • Province of British Columbia (BC Hydro and The Ministry of Environment) Answers to FAQ regarding WA 2860 from the Department of Ecology website: http://www.ecy.wa.gov/pubs/0611014.pdf

  10. Streamflow Data Needs to Support a 21st Century Planning Framework Incorporating Climate Information and Uncertainty 2 Emissions Scenarios 20 GCM Scenarios X 2 Downscaling Approaches X 2 Hydro. Modeling Approaches X = Up to 160 realizations of future streamflow variability at each location!

  11. The Need to Encompass Multiple Spatial Scales

  12. Large Scale Planning Studies • Examples: • Hydro System Performance • Flood Control • Main Stem ESA • Transboundary Issues • Large-Scale Irrigation Impacts

  13. Medium Scale Planning Studies • Examples: • Water Supply Planning • Yakima Basin • Okanogan Basin • Methow • Walla Walla Basin WA State Water Resources Inventory Areas

  14. Schematic of VIC Hydrologic Model and Energy Balance Snow Model 5 km 1/16th Deg. PNW 6 km Snow Model

  15. Alternate Approach: DHSVM Developed in the UW Land Surface Hydrology Research Group at UW, the model has been used for over a decade in hydrologic research applications associated with small catchments. DHSVM: Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model

  16. Streamflow Locations Currently Under Consideration Blue = Large Scale Planning Sites Green = Snake River Sites Red = Additional Sites in WA Partnerships with the BPA, NWPCC, OR and BC will extend the number of sites included in the study to support specific planning activities in these areas. The UW will also collaborate informally with the U of I.

  17. On-Line Survey Website, Project Scope http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=daSOYBVOb238oFy6ia7bcA_3d_3d

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