1 / 17

UK Renewable Energy Scenarios: Achieving Ambitious Goals by 2050

This presentation explores various renewable energy scenarios for the UK, including targets, deployment rates, costs, and comparisons with Germany's Energiewende. It covers EU and UK targets for 2020, scenarios to 2030 and 2050, and pathways towards achieving 100% renewables by 2030 and 2050. The analysis includes deployment rates, supply mixes, and the importance of ambitious renewable energy policies for the future. Cost comparisons and insights into renewable energy development are also discussed. Learn about the potential of UK renewable resources and the need for more ambitious policies to ensure a sustainable energy future.

cjolly
Download Presentation

UK Renewable Energy Scenarios: Achieving Ambitious Goals by 2050

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Renewables-Intensive Energy Scenarios for the UK • Intro: UK Renewables: Current Status & EU 2020 Targets • DECC Renewable Energy Roadmap to 2020 • UK Climate Change Committee Scenarios to 2030 • WWF/GLGH High Renewable Electricity Scenarios 2030 • Poyry ‘Max’Electricity Scenario for 2050 • DECC High Renewables Pathway to 2050 • UK Pugwash Very High Renewables Pathway to 2050 • CAT Zero Carbon Britain: 100% Renewables by 2030 • Comparison of Scenarios: Deployment Rates, Costs • UK c.f. Germany’s Energiewende • Conclusion: UK Renewables Policy Could be Much More Ambitious! Presentation to Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, 20thSep 2013 Godfrey Boyle, Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University, UK

  2. EU 20:20:20 Target for 2020: Renewables to supply 20% of Final (delivered) energy EU & UK 2020 Targets UK Renewable Energy in 2012 Within EU Target, UK Target: Renewables to Supply 15% of final energy by 2020 (c.234TWh) Progress to Date: By 2012 UK Renewables Supplied: c. 4% of Final Energy (c.60TWh), c. 12% of Electricity, c. 2% Heat/Cool Energy, c. 3% Transport Energy Deployment Rate Must Increase to c.22 TWh/yr to Hit 2020 Target (see Fig 1 below)

  3. UK Commitment: Renewables to Provide c. 15% of Delivered Energy by 2020 DECC Renewable Energy Roadmap View to 2020 Deployment Target: 234 TWh by 2020 (- 60 TWh from RE in 2012) = 174 TWh in c.8 yrs Deployment Rate = c. 22 TWh/yr

  4. UK Climate Change Committee Scenarios to 2030 In High (46%) Scenario RE Delivers c.800 TWh in 2030 RE Deployment Rate: 800-60 TWh = 740 TWh in 17 yrs = 44 TWh/yr. Of which: 65% is Elec. 50% is Heat 25% Transport Main Source: Wind Renewables to Supply 30-65% of Electricity, 35-50% of Heat & 11-25% of Transport (all delivered energy)

  5. WWF/GLGH Positive Energy Report 2011: ‘Stretch’ Scenario for 2030 By 2030, 130 GW of Renewable Capacity Supplies 295 TWh (87% of ReducedElectricity Demand) Renewable ElectricityDeployment Rate: 295-35= c.260 TWh in c.19 yrs = c.14 TWh/yr Report Stresses that 2015-20 Ren. Elec. Deploy Rate must be maintained in 2020-30

  6. Poyry 2011: Scenarios for UK Electricity in 2050 In Max Scenario Wind (Offshore & Onshore) is Main RE Contributor (c.80%) Renew. Elec. Deployment Rate: 700-60 =640 TWh over 37yrs = c.17 TWh/yr In V.Hi. Scenario: c.490TWh (c.80%) of Elec. from RE by 2050 In Max Scenario: c.700 TWh (c.94%) of Elec. from RE by 2050

  7. UK Supply Mixes 1960-2010 & in DECCPathways to 2050: ‘Spread’ & ‘Non Nuclear’ In DECC ‘Non-Nuclear’ 2050 Scenario, Renewables Supply c.60% of 8EJ Primary Energy, i.e. c.1350TWh RE Deployment Rate: c.1350-60 = 1290 TWh in c. 37 yrs =c.35 TWh/yr

  8. UK Pugwash 2013 Very High Renewables Scenario 2050, Using DECC Pathways Authors Elliott & Finney @ Open University By 2050 Renewables c.80% of UK Electricity & c 80% of Delivered Energy Ren. Elec. Deploy. Rate = (550-60)/37 = 13 TWh/yr

  9. Powerdown: Demand reduced by 60% Power-up: Supply inc. to 100% Renewable by 2030 Zero Carbon Britain - Zero GHGs by 2030, via ‘Powerdown’ & ‘Power-up’

  10. ZCB 2030 Energy Flow DiagramTotal Deliv. Energy: c.750 TWh/yr

  11. Zero Carbon Britain 2030: Hourly Model of Demand & RE Supply 10 Year HourlyModel (87600 data points) of UK Renewable Electricity Supply & Demand Seven Day Example >>> Shows surpluses & Shortfalls>>

  12. ZCB: Supply & Demand Matched via Synthetic Methane & Liquid Fuels from Renewable Electricity & CO2 Renewable Elec. & CO2 from Biomass, via Sabatier Process, gives Synthetic Methane for backup Elec. Gen. (in CCGTs) & Industrial Use. Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Process gives Liquid fuels for Transport & Industry

  13. Fraunhofer & Audi: Renewable Electricity + CO2 to Synthetic Methane Audi Release June 13: “Audi has opened the doors to its new power-to-gas facility, which will make …E-gas. “The plant produces hydrogen and synthetic methane … from renewable energy, water and carbon dioxide. (…) “Major German energy utilities have since taken up the idea of power-to-gas cogeneration and are following Audi with initial projects of their own.”

  14. Deployment Rates Electricity: 13-17 TWh/yr Delivered Energy: 22-44TWh/yr Primary Energy: 35TWh/yr UK High-Renewable Scenarios: Comparison of Deployment RatesDECC Roadmap Deliv. En. Deploy Rate 2013-2020: 22 TWh/yr

  15. Cost Comparison of Hi-Renewable, Hi-Nuclear & Intermed. Scenarios to 2050, from Pugwash Report Total Costs/capita/yr, 2010-2050, from DECC Pathways calculator: • Hi Renewables: • £4378- £6588 • Hi Nuclear: • £3404-£7178 • Intermediate: • £4485-£6554 • Costs approx. equal in all three pathways

  16. By 2030: >50% of Elec. & c.30% of Deliv. Energy By 2050: Primary Energy -50% Renewables >80% of Elec. & c.60% of Deliv. Energy UK vs. Germany’s High Renewable Future via Energiewende

  17. Summary & Conclusions • UK has probably the best Renewable resources in Europe • Current UK Government plans for Renewable Energy Deployment to 2020 are very un-ambitious – and no targets after 2020 • Many Studies show great potential for further Renewable deployment to 2030 & 2050 • Scenarios suggest Renewables could be providing >80% of UK Electricity, or nearly all Delivered Energy, by 2030-2050 • Delivered Energy Deployment Rates feasible by 2050 -- but maybe not by 2030 unless Government makes much stronger commitment! • High-Renewable Scenario’s Total Costs are no more than in other Scenarios (e.g. High Nuclear) • Germany’s Energiewende shows the way towards a Very High-Renewable Future for a large country like UK • UK Government could & should adopt a much more ambitious approach to deployment of renewable energy!

More Related