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Ending the Fossil Fuel Addiction: What will it Take?

Dr. Kyle Forinash Professor of Physics School of Natural Sciences Indiana University Southeast New Albany, IN,USA. Ending the Fossil Fuel Addiction: What will it Take?. Now! !. US: 300 metric tons of fossil fuel per second !. How Much Oil Is There? ( Should we worry?).

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Ending the Fossil Fuel Addiction: What will it Take?

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  1. Dr. Kyle Forinash Professor of Physics School of Natural Sciences Indiana University Southeast New Albany, IN,USA Ending the Fossil Fuel Addiction: What will it Take? Now!!

  2. US: 300 metric tons of fossil fuel per second!

  3. How Much Oil Is There? (Should we worry?)

  4. Definitions. • Resource or ‘oil in place’: Estimate of what is there. • Proven Reserve: 90% confidence it can be extracted with given technology (primary + secondary + tertiary methods). • Ultimately Recoverable: Proven + extracted. • Unproven Reserve: 10-50% confidence. • Shale Oil: Compounds in shale that can be cooked into oil. • Tight oil: Oil extracted by fracking.

  5. “Huge Discoveries of Oil!” ? (Proven Reserve) • 2012 India – 5.7 Bbl • 2011 Gulf of Mexico – 0.5 Bbl • 2007 Brazil – 8 Bbl • 2006 Gulf of Mexico – 15 Bbl • North Slope Alaska – 11.8 Bbl • Eagle Ford, Texas – 4 Bbl • US Annual Consumption – 7 Bbl

  6. In 1956 M. King Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Excerpt from Hubbert's original paper: Actual:

  7. Sample Hubbert Results (world).

  8. The Earth is Warming. Alaska: Face of Glacier in 2001 Alaska: Face of Glacier in 1951

  9. Transportation Accounts for 27% of the Energy Used in the U.S.

  10. Where Does Your $1 of Gas Go? 4% idling loss 3% transmission loss 74% heat loss 3% acceleration 3% accessories 6% rolling friction 7% air drag

  11. Technology of the Past 20 Years Has Been Used to Make Cars 9% Bigger with 40% More HP.

  12. Gasoline Will be Hard to Replace. FuelEnergy per Weight (MJ/kg) Hydrogen 114 (10 liquid; 5 compressed gas) Gasoline 48 Plant Oil (Bio-Diesel) 38 Ethanol 28 Common Coal 22 Natural Gas (STP) 20 Air Dried Wood 15 Potatoes 4 Carbon Fiber Flywheel 0.8 Fruits and Vegetables 0.6 - 1.8 Lithium Batteries (at 400C) 0.2 Lead Batteries 0.1

  13. Problems with Hydrogen As a Car Fuel. • H2 is not a fuel (requires energy to make). • 40% energy loss to make H2 from natural gas. • 80% energy loss to make H2 from grid electricity. • H2 is more difficult to transport and more dangerous than diesel, gasoline, propane or natural gas. (Transportation of propane is highly restricted.) • H2 will require a new distribution grid (compared to existing electric grid).

  14. Plant Oil as a Fuel? • US transportation consumption (2004): 27.8 Quad • Energy production, all arable land in the US cultivated with soybeans (bio-diesel): 25.6 Quad

  15. The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics Limits Thermal Engine Efficiencies. ProcessConversionTypeEfficiency Large Electric Generator Mechanical to Electrical 98-99% Large Electric Motor Electrical to Mechanical 90-97% Home Gas Furnace Chemical to Thermal 90-96% Small Electric Motor Electrical to Mechanical 60-75% Fuel Cell Chemical to Electrical 50-60% Large Steam Turbine Thermal to Mechanical 40-45% Diesel Engine Thermal to Mechanical 30-35% Gasoline Engine Thermal to Mechanical 15-25% Florescent Lights Electrical to Radiative 15-25% Incandescent Lights Electrical to Radiative 2-5% Plant Photosynthesis Radiative to Chemical 1%

  16. How Many New Power Plants to Convert to Electric Vehicles? • Annual US transportation needs (primary energy): 27.8 Quad. • Assuming a 50% efficient electric car we need 10.8 Quad of primary energy to replace our 20% efficient gasoline cars. • For a 1,000 MW power plant (coal, gas or nuclear) operating at 80% capacity this is 450 new plants (current US total is 950 plants). • For a 2MW windmill operating at 40% capacity this is about 452,000 windmills. • For 20% efficient solar panels this is 21,400 km2(the size of New Hampshire).

  17. What aboutRenewables?

  18. Available Renewable Energy (world). (*food crops, grassy and woody plants, residues from agriculture or forestry, organic component of municipal and industrial wastes, fumes from landfills)

  19. To supply all energy used in 2005, with solar* or wind†.(*20% efficiency solar cell, 50% storage and transmission loss.)(†2MW windmill, 40% efficiency)

  20. Dollar per MWh for Electricity.

  21. Won’t Conservation Hurt? • Two Examples: • Refrigerators since 1970: • Increase in efficiency by 75% • Drop in price by 60% • Increase in volume by 20% on average • European and Japanese cars compete well with American cars but use less gas.

  22. Nuclear Choices. • Death and cancer rates much lower for nuclear than coal, oil or natural gas use per kWh. • France gets ~75% of electricity from nuclear (19.6% for the US, 17% for world in 2003). • 'Inherently safe' reactors (pebble bed, modular design, few moving parts, smaller). • The radioactive waste problem (vitrification, fuel recycling). • Fusion: First reactor by 2050?

  23. Summary • Use of oil is going to decline; coal & natural gas will last a while longer (but CO2 is a problem). • Hydrogen, plant fuel are probably not good ideas. • Conservation should play a big role. • Use of renewables should be increased: wind, biomass, hydroelectric, and especially solar. • Use of electric power should be increased where possible because of higher efficiency. • Nuclear power may be a necessary evil. • New sources? Methane hydrates? Conclusion: There is no silver bullet.

  24. Kyle Forinash Indiana University Southeast homepages.ius.edu/kforinas/Forinash.html Island Press, April 2010

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