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Climate Change in the NPS and the Smokies

Climate Change in the NPS and the Smokies. Key Points from Jon Jarvis. Climate Change is the greatest threat to NPS units. It IS happening and it IS caused by humans. View it as an opportunity to bring us together, causing us to think and act at the landscape scale.

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Climate Change in the NPS and the Smokies

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  1. Climate Change in the NPS and the Smokies

  2. Key Points from Jon Jarvis • Climate Change is the greatest threat to NPS units. • It IS happening and it IS caused by humans. • View it as an opportunity to bring us together, causing us to think and act at the landscape scale. • Opportunity to create more public – private partnerships Climate Change Flat Hat Chat

  3. NPS Priorities Mitigation

  4. Science

  5. Adaptation

  6. Communication

  7. NPS Resources

  8. Climate Change Education:What doesn’t Work • Fear Appeals • Doomsday Prophecies • Arbitrarily Balanced Positions • Technical & Scientific Language

  9. Many Americans think of climate change as a distant problem. National Park Rangers and Interpreters have a unique opportunity to inform, educate, and help Americans connect the dots between global climate change and the United States, through our most prized national landscapes. • But showing and helping Americans experience the current and projected impacts, should be an especially effective means of education. Anthony.Leiserowitz@yale.edu

  10. #1 – Tell local, personal stories about our changing landscape • #2 – Utilize new technology and social media • #3 – Create a citizen science program • #4 – Make connections to the economy, to our families, to patriotism; make it personally relevant • #5 – Create messages of hope! Source: Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz, Yale

  11. Climate Change Impacts in the Appalachians More intense precipitation events, extended drought periods and heat waves increases in soil erosion, stream sedimentation and wildfires increases in diseases and insect outbreaks

  12. What Makes the Smokies So Special? • Unparalleled scenery • largest sweep of undeveloped upland wilderness in the East • 16 peaks > 6,000’ • Rugged, varied topography • 2,000 miles of streams, 900 miles of trails • Biodiversity hotspot

  13. Spruce Fir Forest Photo:Coyle Spruce-Fir Moss Spider: Federally Listed Endangered Species Photo:Chatfield Red-Cheek Salamander: Smokies Endemic Saw-Whet Owl: Federal Species of Concern Long-tail Shrew: Species of Concern in NC

  14. More Questions Than Answers Are streams warming over time and how will that impact life within? How much rain will we get in the Smokies? How will more intense storms or longer droughts impact streams and the life within? How will rain be distributed in time and space? Will there be species shift? Will pollinators lose synchronization with their host plants? Will stress from changes in water and temperature impact the ecosystem’s ability to adapt to threats from exotic species or acid deposition? Will bird migration still coincide with food availability? What are the target species we should be track (i.e. what are the best ecological indicators of climate change - amphibians, avifauna, inverts, etc.)?

  15. Unique High Elevation Ecosystem As environmental thresholds shift in space and time, species can either: • Adapt • Migrate • Become extinct Could result in native species being replaced by more competitively superior exotic invasive species. Delcourt and Delcourt, 2009

  16. Density Distribution of the Red-cheeked salamander (Plethodon jordani) at GRSM

  17. Average Daily Minimum January Temperature (J. Fridley. 2009 Syracuse) Maximum July Temperature Fridley, 2009 Syracuse

  18. ATBI in the Smokies Invertebrates Non-Vascular Plants / Fungi Vertebrates Known Vascular Plants Estimated Unknown

  19. Algae 78 new to science, 566 new park records Spiders 41 new to science, 266 new park records Snails 7 new to science, 50 new park records Mushrooms 57 new to science, 583 new park records Flies 29 new to science, 317 new park records Beetles 42 new to science, 1,488 new park records New Park Records: 7,391 Millipedes 2 new to science, 22 new park records

  20. Ligdia n sp. Moth/Butterfly 36 new to science, 944 new park records Ramazzottius n. sp. Tardigrade = Water bear 18 new to science, 55 new park records Cosberella lamaralexanderi Collembola = Springtail 60 new to science, 144 new park records Diachaea n sp. Slime Mold 17 new to science, 139 new park records Neophylax kolodskii Caddisfly 5 new to science, 78 new park records New Species to Science: 922

  21. Phenology • The timing of biological activities, life cycle events • Monitoring phenology is the best way to answer the previous questions

  22. Timing of Biological Activity • Some seasonal biological activities are happening 15-20 days earlier than several decades ago: • Trees blooming earlier • Migrating birds arriving earlier • Bees, Butterflies emerging earlier • Changes in timing differ from species to species, so ecological interactions are disrupted. Images used under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License. European pied flycatcher chicks are now born later than the caterpillars they eat.

  23. Some Phenology Data from Tremont

  24. Tornado Damage April 27, 2011:Category 4, Winds 166-220 mph

  25. Citizen Science Climate Change Project(s) Give Them a Personal Connection

  26. Don’t argue! Offer non-threatening solutions

  27. Human causes - Human solutions Recycle and Use Recycled Products Buy Locally Compact Fluorescent Bulbs Carpool Buy a Fuel Efficient Car Take Shorter Showers Adjust Your Thermostat Bring Cloth Bags Unplug un-used Electronics Put on a Sweater

  28. Susan Sachs, Great Smoky Mountains National Park Susan_Sachs@nps.gov Any Questions?

  29. Common Myths Myth:Current warming trend is a natural process, the Earth has done this before and nature is capable of coping

  30. Global Warming or Climate Change?

  31. 97% agree that climate change is real and is caused by human activity. • Appearance of disagreement is part of scientific process as researchers explore hypotheses and theories • Uncertainty exists on exact impacts, we move forward with the best information available. • Some of the “disagreement” is just perception about scientific terms i.e. “likely” = between a 66% and 89% probability in the IPCC report. Myth: Scientists are in disagreement

  32. Myth: Climate Change is not Caused by Humans

  33. Myth: If Climate Change were true, we would be seeing impacts already

  34. Myth: Cold Weather Disproves Climate Change “Weather isn’t going to go away because of Climate Change” Dr. Gavin Schmidt, NASA Climate Scientist La Nina El Nino

  35. Myth: Climate Change is Caused by the Sun All regions warmed at the surface but the stratosphere cooled the most at the highest altitude

  36. Myth: There is plenty of time to react to Climate Change Many greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for many years. • Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 13.5 years • Nitrous oxide has an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years • CO2 atmospheric lifetime is difficult to calculate, recent work indicates it may be as long as tens of thousands of years or as short as 100 years. Unique habitats

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