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Flood Risk in relation to Climate Change and Adaptation in the Netherlands

Flood Risk in relation to Climate Change and Adaptation in the Netherlands. Leonie Bolwidt Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management Rijkswaterstaat Centre for Water Management Toronto May 2008. Climate change scenarios, 2050. Sea level Rise (2100).

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Flood Risk in relation to Climate Change and Adaptation in the Netherlands

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  1. Flood Risk in relation to Climate Change and Adaptation in the Netherlands Leonie Bolwidt Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management Rijkswaterstaat Centre for Water Management Toronto May 2008

  2. Climate change scenarios, 2050

  3. Sea level Rise (2100)

  4. Consequences Sea level rise • The sea level continues to rise, also after 2100! • Increase in coastal erosion • Increase salt intrusion • Maintain coastal defence • Discharging river water to the sea becomes increasingly difficult

  5. Rhine discharge at Lobith (2050)

  6. Extreme discharges on the Rhine • Currently 16.000 m3/s 2100 • G - G+ about 18.000 m3/s • W - W+ 19.000-20.000 m3/s • Limitation of the discharge capacity, due to flooding in Germany

  7. Subsidence in 2050

  8. Land use in 2050

  9. Increase in flood risk from sea from the large rivers Increasing upward seepage Increase in economic value of (low parts) of the Netherlands

  10. The National Adaptation Strategy (ARK) • Combined forces of 4 Ministries (Departments) • Association of Provincial Authorities • Association of Netherlands Municipalities • Association of Water Boards • Non governmental organisations • Private sector- branch org. and “champions” • Individual Provinces, cities, water boards etc. Goal: Impuls to climate proofing the Netherlands Focus here on floods/high water

  11. The ARK ProgrammeLooking back: the milestones • Triggered by Senate March ’05 • Start and political backing: conference with Prime Minister Nov. ’05 • ARK Programmedoc. approved by Council of Ministers March ’06 • Consultation first draft strategy at three government levels Oct. ’06 • Draft strategy (incl. first outline agenda) March ’07 • Consultation Stakeholders – over 50 regular meetings Apr.-Jn ’07 • Final strategy in Council of Ministers Nov. ’07 • Strategy in Parliament and Senate Nov. ’07 • Second national congress Nov. ’07 • end of the strategy phase • start of the agenda phase

  12. The ARK process…Positioning the strategy Talenti Cathedral of Florence 1296-1887 (bell tower) Pisano Giotto

  13. Giotto

  14. Pisano

  15. Talenti

  16. The National Adaptation Strategy Analysis and leading principles - 1 • Situation: • Probable trends Rise of sea level and temperat. • Extreme events Storms, high river discharges • Combinations of events • Fundamental uncertainty Validity of statistics • Goal: • Robustness Wide dikes • Flexibility Easy to reboot electr.generators • Adaptability Rapid proced., reserved space

  17. The National Adaptation Strategy Analysis and leading principles - 2 • Risk management • Absolute safety does not exist • Prevention + reduce effects • Adjust risk & cost-benefit analysis for long term investments • Natural systems • Use natural functions of soil, water and air, • Restore natural systems en buffering functions • Create win-win situations for large scale spatial structures (nature, water safety, tourism, landscape, economic activities)

  18. The National Adaptation Strategy General actions • Start a public campaign for raising awareness • Promote leading principles & stimulate research programs • Adjust procedures for decision making large scale developm. • Assess projects in progress • Review existing instruments (financial, legal) • Develop new instruments (revolving funds, stim. progr.) • Small scale interventions (“climate buffers”) and “icons” • Monitor & evaluate the “transitions”

  19. The National Adaptation StrategyChoices made in the process... • Open debate • Not: ‘for and by governments’ or a technocratic problem • Ongoing, planned, future investments, plans, policies • Not: just new investments and programmes • Innovation parallel to practice • Not: sequential; first research, than policyframes, laws, implementation • Adaptation mainly by ‘combining work with work’ • Not (yet): megaprojects just for adaptation • Mainstream in 10 years • Not: blueprint or series of projects for the coming 50 years

  20. The National Adaptation StrategyMainlines and theme-specific actions  KNMI-scenario’s: no major shift in investmentplans in West Nl.  We will take up the challenge NOW on ALL major effects: 1. Safety: spatial reservat. (long term) and speed up investments (short term) Damage: more storagecapac.; experim. design, urban floodmngt; compart. 2. Economy: reliable networks transport, electr.,water; key econ. areas access 3. Quality of life/public health: green/blue veins in towns, subsid. restructr. 4. Nature: National Ecological Network: connect, transparent coat, EU-rules

  21. Examples (innovative) solutions?Super dike in Japan

  22. Examples (innovative) solutions?Climate robust spatial planning laws England

  23. Examples (innovative) solutions?Freeways: high (compartments) or deep (landscape)

  24. Examples (innovative) solutions? Amphibian living

  25. Examples (innovative) solutions?

  26. Last comments.. • We must start with anticipating on the coming changes instead of reacting after disasters! • Examples from other countries of anticipating to climate change? • Interested in the reports? Leave your email address with me! Thank you for your attention! Leonie.Bolwidt@rws.nl

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