David’s Story “ Born to Fail - The Perfect Storm ” Neighbourhood Renewal– Lisburn February 2011

1. David’s Story “Born to Fail -The Perfect Storm” Neighbourhood Renewal– Lisburn February 2011 DCS John Carnochan QPM FFPH Scottish Violence Reduction Unit

3. The Plan • Violence Reduction – It’s not easy • Public Health – A useful Lens • Early Years – Could it be Magic ? • David’s Story – Knew that would happen!! • The Evidence – Too much ? • The Challenges – To be Overcome

4. “The challenges we face converge, intertwine and often remain largely beyond our understanding. Most of us suspect that the “experts” don’t really know what’s going on and that as a species we’ve released forces that are neither managed nor manageable.” Thomas Homer-Dixon (Paper by Prof Phil Hanlon University of Glasgow 2009

5. Dispelling some myths First- We can police our way out of this Second - Victims and offenders are separate groups Finally – There is a single solution and we know what it is

6. Violence – Context

8. The WHAT “Interpersonal violence – violence between individuals in families and communities – is a public health problem.” Etienne Krug Director Department of Injuries and Violence Prevention World health Organisation 2004

9. The HOW Identify risk / protectivefactors Research why it occurs Surveillance Systematic data collection Develop and evaluate interventions Find out what works. Implement Scale up and evaluate effective programmes

10. Injury Surveillance

11. Understand Causes of Violence Two components to Violence: The propensity to be violent - personalfactors The triggers of violence - social factors The Wave Report 2005 “Violence and what to do about it”

12. Farrington D.P. (2003). Key results from the first 40 years of the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development,.Realising Britain’s Potential: Future Strategic Challenges for Britain. The Strategy Unit February 2008.

13. Deprivation

14. What do Employers Want ? Planning and organising Customer handling Problem solving Team working Oral communication Other technical and practical skills Written communication Basic computer literacy / using IT Strategic management Advanced IT or software Using numbers Literacy 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Percentage of Employers reporting an employee skill gap Future Skills Bar Chart. See Future Skills Scotland Website, Employer Survey 2004, p27, fig 15.

15. Rates of Return to Human Capital Higher Education Secondary Primary Preschool

16. Early Intervention: Insuring for a better future. Which one do we insure against future harm? Which one do we assess on an annual basis? Which one do we assess the person in control? Which one do we ban unfit owners/users? Which one is governed by most legislation? Which one is the most important ?

17. Ecological Model = The Frame Societal Community Relationship Individual • Lack of communication skills • Poor behavioural control • Impulsiveness • Aggressive behaviour • Lack of skills to deal with conflict • Inability to judge risk • Lack of “life” skills • Exclusion from Services/Schools • Nutrition Diet Health • Alcohol • Lack of employment opportunities • Parenting • Lack of knowledge • Friends that engage in violence • Prevalence of gang culture • Violent families – siblings/parents • Lack of significant adults/positive role model • Lack of punishment for pre cursor offences – knife carrying • Lack of visible swift justice • Links to deprivation • Scottishness • Inequality • Cultural norms • Legitimisation of violence • Access to and use of alcohol • Lack of aspiration • Dependancy • Tolerance

18. Seven main strategies to prevent violence

19. Safe stable and nurturing relationships Parenting programmes Information & support for parents Parent & child programmes Preschool education, family support, child health services etc. Social support groups e.g. peer support for parents Media interventions e.g. raise awareness & knowledge of child maltreatment Early, primary prevention to avoid the development of violence such as child abuse and childhood aggression Some strong evidence that parenting programmes and parent and child programmes can reduce child maltreatment and problem/aggressive behaviours in youth

20. Life skills Preschool enrichment Child skills, parent programmes Social development training Conflict resolution, perspective taking, anger management. Academic enrichment Study & recreation out of school Educational incentives E.g. finance for completing school Vocational Training Providing skills to find work Cognitive, emotional, interpersonal & social skills to enable youth to deal with the challenges of everyday life Some strong evidence that preschool enrichment and social development programmes can reduce aggression and improve social skills, particularly in at-risk youth

21. Vision Strategy Policy Operating Procedure Guidance People Attitudes Challenges Difficult Difficult

22. Northern Ireland’s Children and Young People • Healthy • Enjoying, learning and achieving • Living in safety and with stability • Experiencing economic and environmental well-being • Contributing positively to community and society and • Living in a society which Respects their rights.

23. Purpose Government Economic Strategy National Outcomes NATIONAL PERFORMANCE SOAs LIFE JOURNEY birth 18 10 16 Valuing our Young People Early Years Framework More Choices More Chances Curriculum for Excellence GIRFEC Promoting Positive Outcomes (ASB) YJ Framework NATIONAL POLICIES Road to Recovery (Drugs) Alcohol framework Equally Well (Health Inequalities) Achieving our Potential (Poverty)

24. Challenges • Wicked problem – Leadersnot technicians • Partnership in action – policy and Practice • Outcomesnot processes • Public health inspired response • Interdisciplinary - Collaboration • Evidence-led - problem profile – outcome evaluation • Preventionfocused - earlier, more effective intervention – further upstream • Whole population - ecological model

25. Challenges • Joining up • Coalition – Collaboration - Consensus - health, education, community…. • Dilution - everyone’s a partner; no-one’s Responsible • Outcomes – clear- defined – Shared • Scaling up • Fragmented delivery landscape • Territorialism – professional Gangs • Lack of robust outcome Evaluation • Resources – state of public finances – Opportunity? • Wising up • Leadership – out of the comfort zone – Adaptive – Brave – Resilient

26. It has to be about Action that is informed by evidence and designed to deliver clear meaningful Outcomes Researchthat is informed by and connected to practice Clear, consistent, Collaborative policy that hits the pavement.

27. “There is nothing more difficult to carryout, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to conduct than to initiate a new order of things. For the reformer has enemies in all who profit by the old order and only lukewarm defenders in all those who profit by the new order” Machiavelli, The Prince