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Budget Perspective Bill Martinson June 18, 2009

Budget Perspective Bill Martinson June 18, 2009. Public Safety is a vital component of Tulsa’s Quality of Life. Quality of Life. Public Safety. But it is not the only one. Quality of Life. Transportation. Economic Vitality. Neighborhood Vitality. Public Safety. Recreation

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Budget Perspective Bill Martinson June 18, 2009

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  1. Budget PerspectiveBill MartinsonJune 18, 2009

  2. Public Safety is a vital component of Tulsa’s Quality of Life. Quality of Life Public Safety

  3. But it is not the only one. Quality of Life Transportation Economic Vitality Neighborhood Vitality Public Safety Recreation and Culture Environment Human Investment Citizen Engagement

  4. Comparative Cities Minneapolis Cleveland Omaha Sacramento Denver Oakland St. Louis KC Colorado Springs Fresno Wichita Tulsa OKC Albuquerque Little Rock Atlanta Tucson Ft. Worth Honolulu Miami

  5. 2007 Quality of Life Transportation Economic Vitality Neighborhood Vitality Public Safety Income Stability Employment Affordability Recreation & Culture Human Investment Citizen Engagement Environment Culture Education Recreation Health components and sub-components are equally weighted high (best) medium high medium (average) medium low low (worst)

  6. Over the last several decades, we have focused our resources on Police and Fire department budgets, to the detriment of other aspects of quality of life.

  7. FY68-69 Combined Police and Fire Budgets $7,762,539

  8. FY68-69 Combined Police and Fire Budgets – at the Rate of Inflation $44,646,232 $7,762,539

  9. Police and Fire, including capital equipment, constitute 32% of the General Fund Police and Fire, excluding capital equipment (which is now funded from the Third Penny), constituted 57% of the General Fund In 39 Years . . . . City Population + 17% City Land Area + 13% Fire Department Budget + 1,466% Police Department Budget + 2,228% Combined Police and Fire Budgets – Actual Growth $149,943,000 $44,646,232

  10. Police & Fire Personnel Police & Fire budgets have grown nearly 14 times faster than the number of Police and Fire personnel. Police & Fire Budgets

  11. Percentage of General Fund Growth Captured by Department (FY00-FY10) 74%

  12. City of Tulsa Sales Tax 2¢ for operations 3¢ on the dollar “Third Penny” for capital improvements

  13. City of Tulsa Sales Tax Budgeted to raise $142.8 million in FY 2008-2009 Budgeted to spend $142.8 million in FY 2008-2009 100%

  14. City of Tulsa Sales Tax Projected in the 4/28 Budget Book to raise $141.2 million in FY 2008-2009 $1.6 million short of budget Budgeted to spend $142.8 million in FY 2008-2009 101%

  15. City of Tulsa Sales Tax Projected in the April Financial Statements to raise $139.7 million in FY 2008-2009 $3.1 million short of budget Budgeted to spend $142.8 million in FY 2008-2009 102%

  16. City of Tulsa Sales TaxFY1980 Raised $47.1 million in FY 1979-1980 Spent $28.7 million in FY 1979-1980 61%

  17. 1,660 employees 1,597 employees Just in the last 10 years . . . . - 63 fewer employees

  18. 1,660 employees 1,597 employees - 63 fewer employees

  19. Board of Adjustment City Council Office Communications Development Services – Building Permits Development Services – Site/Sign/PUD Inspections and Enforcement Economic Development Emergency Management Finance Gilcrease Museum Human Resources Human Rights INCOG Information Technology Internal Auditing Legal Department Mayor’s Action Center Mayor’s Office Municipal Courts One Technology Center Debt Service Park & Recreation Performing Arts Center Planning – Neighborhood and Comprehensive Planning Planning Commission Public Works – Facilities Maintenance Public Works – Graffiti Abatement Public Works – Park and Community Center Maintenance Public Works – Right-of-Way Mowing and Maintenance Public Works – Snow and Ice Removal Public Works – Street Maintenance Public Works – Traffic Engineering Real Estate Management River Parks Tulsa Transit Working in Neighborhoods – Neighborhood Inspections/Code Enforcement Working in Neighborhoods – Neighborhood Liaisons What about all of the other General Fund responsibilities?

  20. +$200,000, or 17% General Fund – Park Revenues -$700,000, or 6% General Fund – Park Expenditures Year after year, they donate revenue to the Police and Fire departments. FY2009-10 Budget, as originally proposed Net Contribution – $900,000

  21. General Fund – Public Works-Related Revenues +$1,458,000, or 7.6% -$1,647,000, or 5.4% General Fund – Public Works Expenditures Net Contribution – $3,105,000

  22. Trends/Sales Tax Forecasts Require Severe Cuts in FY’10

  23. The gap has widened by $7,400,000

  24. Challenging Common Assumptions:The Relationship Between Police and Fire Department Spending and Measurable Impacts on Public Safety

  25. What is our objective? • To spend money? Or – • To reduce criminal activity and • To achieve citizen satisfaction

  26. Literature Review and Analysis • Studies examining the effect of the level of police expenditures to combat crime: • 1979 - Evaluation Quarterly … argues that there is a time lag between the effect of police expenditures and crime rates; • 1996 - American Journal of Criminal Justice… significant relationship between disaggregated measures of police size and crime; • 1999 - Economic Review … asserts that crime responds to economic conditions and incentives; • 2002 - Journal of Criminal Justice … increased police levels reduced most types of crimes; • 2005 - Urban Politics, Crime Rates and Police Strength … asserts that local political systems that are more susceptible to citizen pressure will have relatively more police; • 2005 - Social Problems… found that communities where minority populations are believed to be more violent spend more to reduce crime; • 2005 - U.S. Government Accountability Office … COPS funds contributed to declines in crime rates albeit modest in size; • 2006 - Criminology …crime relationship to number of police is slight; • 2007 - The Determinants of Municipal Policing Expenditures in the U.S. …find that other factors in addition to crime rates significantly impact spending; • 2008 - Legal Affairs … asserts that both more police officers and more social support are essential in reducing crime. Conclusions … • The results are varied/mixed. • There is NO clear direction, position, or measurable association regarding the impact of police budgets on crime rates.

  27. Quantitative Analysis of Tulsa Data • Analysis of Variables for 1990-2007 (with and without time lags up to four years): • Total Crimes per 1,000 population • Violent Crimes per 1,000 population • Property Crimes per 1,000 population • % Change: Total Crimes per 1,000 population • % Change: Violent Crimes per 1,000 population • % Change: Property Crimes per 1,000 population vs • TPD Total Budget per 1,000 population • TPD Personnel Budget per 1,000 population • TPD Total Budget: raw numbers • TPD Personnel Budget: raw numbers • % Change: TPD Total Budget per 1,000 population • % Change: TPD Personnel Budget per 1,000 population • Results: Strongest correlation = only 26% explained variance Conclusion … For the time period 1990-2007, there were NO strong or even moderately strong, linear correlations between police spending in Tulsa and crime rates, or % change in crime rates.

  28. 76% explained variance

  29. What is our objective? • To spend money? Or – • To reduce criminal activity and • To achieve citizen satisfaction

  30. Citizens Satisfaction Survey • OKC has engaged the ETC to survey 3,000 OKC households. selected at random. • They received responses from 1,211. The survey has a 95% level of confidence with an error term of +/- 2.8%. • For comparison purposes, other cities are also surveyed, including Tulsa. • ETC provided Tulsawith the comparative cities results regarding public safety satisfaction, covering the years 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2008 (years selected by ETC).

  31. Citizens Satisfaction Survey • Tulsa’s comparative rank on our citizens’ overall satisfaction with public safety in the years for which data were provided by ETC: • 2008 – Tulsa ranked #1 (84% satisfied) • 2007 – Tulsa ranked #1 (81% satisfied) • 2005 – Tulsa ranked #1 (84% satisfied) • 2003 – Tulsa ranked #1 (84% satisfied)

  32. Advent of Duplicate/Supportive EMS Runs

  33. Fire Stations Per Capita

  34. More Common Misperceptions

  35. Police & Fire personnel are undercompensated?

  36. Police Corporal – PD-02 (second lowest classification after academy – 78 people) Sources: August 2008 Payroll Data; Department Appropriations; Union Contracts

  37. Fire Equipment Operator – FD-02 (second lowest classification – 150 people) Sources: August 2008 Payroll Data; Department Appropriations; Union Contracts

  38. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average income for all Tulsa MSA occupations is . . . . $37,140

  39. Average Unemployment Rate in 2007 = 3.9%

  40. City of Tulsa Employees Salaries and Benefits Per Person FY2009-10 Proposed Budget – Personal Services / Authorized Positions

  41. The number of violent crimes increases every year in the City of Tulsa?

  42. violent crimes in 1997: 4,596 violent crimes in 2007: 4,552

  43. Police and Fire personnel are the only City employees risking injury and death?

  44. Lost Time Injuries by Department:3 Year Average Total Sworn 141 Total Non-Sworn 174 The City of Tulsa has not had any fatalities in the last 10 years. The last one occurred in February 1998, when an employee suffered a heart attack while turning a natural gas meter on/off. * Includes other departments

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