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This report provides an update on the recent evolution, current conditions, and prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on rainfall patterns, atmospheric circulation, and model forecasts. For more information, visit the provided link.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 9, 2012 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, southern India, southern China, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Sumatra/Jakarta islands of Indonesia, eastern Papa New Guinea and southern Australia had below normal rainfall. Central and eastern India, Nepal, Bangladesh, parts of Myanmar, Philippines had above normal rainfall. Southern peninsular India, which was deficient in rainfall during JJAS 2012 season, is awaiting the Northeast Monsoon, for which the normal onset date is around the 20th of October.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern over central/southern India, and southeast Asia in general is below normal.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, except along the west coast of central India, the precipitation over the region at large is below normal.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
Atmospheric Circulation The low level flow over southeastern India is still southwesterly associated with an anomalous high pressure system in the southern Bay of Bengal and in the next few weeks, the flow in a climatological sense is expected to turn northeasterly, thus bringing with it the NE monsoon and the monsoon rains along with it. The anomalous deep trough and the cyclonic circulation associated with Typhoon Prapiroon in northwestern Pacific ocean is dominating the regional flow.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary During the past 90 days, southern India, southern China, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Sumatra/Jakarta islands of Indonesia, eastern Papa New Guinea and southern Australia had below normal rainfall. Central and eastern India, Nepal, Bangladesh, parts of Myanmar, Philippines had above normal rainfall. Southern peninsular India, which was deficient in rainfall during JJAS 2012 summer monsoon season, is awaiting the Northeast Monsoon over the region, for which the normal onset date is around the 20th of October. The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern over central/southern India, and southeast Asia in general is below normal. This past week, except along the west coast of central India, the precipitation over the region at large is below normal. The low level flow over southeastern India is still southwesterly associated with an anomalous high pressure system in the southern Bay of Bengal and in the next few weeks, the flow in a climatological sense is expected to turn northeasterly, thus bringing with it the NE monsoon and the monsoon rains along with it. The anomalous deep trough and the cyclonic circulation associated with Typhoon Prapiroon in northwestern Pacific ocean is dominating the regional flow. For the upcoming couple of weeks in this transition season, the NCEP/GFS model is forecasting relatively dry conditions over the monsoon region.
