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Alternative Energy Sources

Alternative Energy Sources. San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2008. Introduction The Time is now. San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2008. Renewable Energies: the Time is now. What has changed? Global Warming China and emerging countries Technology

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Alternative Energy Sources

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  1. Alternative Energy Sources San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2008

  2. IntroductionThe Time is now San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2008

  3. Renewable Energies: the Time is now • What has changed? • Global Warming • China and emerging countries • Technology • Risk Management • Oil and Natural Gas tensions • Renewable Energies in power mix Stronger driver Weaker driver

  4. 1. Global Warming

  5. Global Warming • A wise assumption Wikipedia.org http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png Dan Cayan ETCC Summit 2007 luncheon_cayan.pdf

  6. Global Warming Evidences • Glacier retreat: 1973 2006 Whitechuck Glacier in North Cascades National Park has retreated 1.2 miles since 1973

  7. Global warming impact in California Source: CEC 500-2006-077

  8. Global warming impact in California • Potential impact in California Source: CEC 500-2006-077 Dan Cayan ETCC Summit 2007 luncheon_cayan.pdf

  9. Other, 8.4% Ag & Forestry, 8.0% Transportation, 41.2% Electric Power, 19.6% Industrial, 22.8% Global Warming • Sector contributions in the USA

  10. 2. China and Emerging Countries China is building 2 large power plants per week

  11. $ 25,000 GDP/c/y $ 50,000 GDP/c/y $ 12,500 GDP/c/y China and emerging countries • Carbon intensity of developed economies Intensity (Tons of CO2 per 1,000 US$ ) Source: CEC

  12. $ 12,500 GDP/c/y China passed the USA for CO2 emissions in 2006 with 6,200 MM Tons/year China (2007) China and emerging countries • Carbon intensity of India and China Intensity (Tons of CO2 per 1,000 US$ )

  13. China and Emerging Countries • Most of the CO2 emission increase is due to developing countries

  14. Carbon foot print • Action is required

  15. 3. Technologies

  16. Technologies • Major technology improvements

  17. Wind turbines • Bigger is better

  18. Growth of wind turbines

  19. Technologies • Solar cells: efficiency is everything

  20. 4. Risk Management

  21. Peakers High investment cost - High operation cost Base line Time of operation per year Risk Management • Electricity generation has moved from optimization to risk management Traditional portfolio

  22. Risk Management • Typical cost variability Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Operation cost ($/kWh) Wind Solar Investment cost ($/kW)

  23. 5. Oil & Gas Tensions From: www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans-habitat/oceans/oap-pao/img/hudsonrig.jpg

  24. Oil and Gas Tensions • Oil Price January 3rd, 2008 Oil Price $100.05 1 barrel = 42 Gallons

  25. Oil and Gas Tensions • Dollar currency change

  26. Oil and Gas Tensions • Crude oil peak

  27. Crude Oil Peak Non OPEC countries

  28. Oil and Gas Tension • Independence and security

  29. California Petroleum Resources

  30. Oil and Gas Tensions • Natural Gas Price Volatility

  31. Renewable in Energy mix • Electricity generation in the world

  32. Power Generation in the USA USA Power Generation U.S. Power Plants The size of each circle represents the quantity of emissions in 2002 24 million tons 15 million tons 4 million tons CoalGasOil Source: MJ Bradley and Associates

  33. California Energy Mix • California Gross System Power for 2006 (GWh) Source: CEC http://www.energy.ca.gov/electricity/gross_system_power.html

  34. Energy mix today • Emerging Countries China India

  35. Renewable Portfolio Standards • 28 states have RPS *Four states, Illinois, Missouri, Virginia, and Vermont, have set voluntary goals for adopting renewable energy instead of portfolio standards with binding targets.

  36. Renewable Portfolio Standard Source: http://www.eere.energy.gov/states/maps/renewable_portfolio_states.cfm#map

  37. Fast growing Renewable Energy Sector • Wind is booming in the USA

  38. Fast growing Renewable Energy Sector Total 16,819 MW As 12/31/07 Source: awea 2007 1999

  39. World wide

  40. Solar is booming

  41. Ethanol is booming

  42. Ethanol plants (2006)

  43. Biodiesel is booming

  44. Bio-diesel plants (2006)

  45. CleanTech Venture Capital

  46. Renewable Energy: the Time is now • “The use of vegetables oils for engine fuels may seem insignificant today but such oils may become in the course of the time as important as the petroleum and the coal tar products of the present time” • “The fuel of the future is going to come from fruit like sumac out by the road, or from apples, weeds, sawdust-almost everything” • “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that” Rudolph Diesel 1912 Henry Ford 1925 Thomas Edison 1931

  47. Even if it was not the Time then

  48. References • “Our Changing Climate – Assessing the risk for California”, CEC-500-2006-077 July 2006 • www.awea.org • www.ethanolrfa.org • www.nbb.org • “2006 Net System Power Report”, CEC-300-2007-007 April 2007 • http://www.eia.doe.gov/

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