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Alternative Energy Sources. San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2009. Introduction The Time is now. San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2009. Renewable Energies: the Time is now. What has changed? Global Warming China and emerging countries Technology
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Alternative Energy Sources San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2009
IntroductionThe Time is now San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2009
Renewable Energies: the Time is now • What has changed? • Global Warming • China and emerging countries • Technology • Risk Management • Oil and Natural Gas tensions • Renewable Energies in power mix Stronger driver Weaker driver
Global Warming • A wise assumption Wikipedia.org http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png Dan Cayan ETCC Summit 2007 luncheon_cayan.pdf
Global Warming Evidences • Glacier retreat: 1973 2006 Whitechuck Glacier in North Cascades National Park has retreated 1.2 miles since 1973
Global Warming Evidences • Ocean are more acidic
Global warming impact in California Source: CEC 500-2006-077
Global warming impact in California • Potential impact in California Source: CEC 500-2006-077 Dan Cayan ETCC Summit 2007 luncheon_cayan.pdf
Global Warming • Sector contributions in the USA: 6,000 M Tons (metric) in 2006
Kyoto Protocol • Reduction of GHG emissions by 5.2% for industrialized countries (Annex1) in 2008-2012 compared to 1990 Signed and ratified Signed ratification pending Signed not ratified Not signed
California AB 32 • Signed on September 27, 2006 • Goal: reduce California GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020: 427 MM tons of CO2 • California Air Resources Board (CARB) is leading the effort • Executive Order S-3-05 proposed to reduce the GHG emissions to 20% of 1990 by 2050 • Means by 2020: • Energy Efficiency • RPS to 33% • Cap and trade with other western states (WCI) • Restrictions for Transportation emissions
Targets for AB32 Source: Climate Change, Proposed Scoping Plan, CARB, October 2008
2. China and Emerging Countries China is building 2 large power plants per week
$ 25,000 GDP/c/y $ 50,000 GDP/c/y $ 12,500 GDP/c/y China and emerging countries • Carbon intensity of developed economies Intensity (Tons of CO2 per 1,000 US$ ) Source: CEC
$ 12,500 GDP/c/y China passed the USA for CO2 emissions in 2006 with 6,200 MM Tons/year China (2007) China and emerging countries • Carbon intensity of India and China Intensity (Tons of CO2 per 1,000 US$ )
China and Emerging Countries • Most of the CO2 emission increase is due to developing countries
Carbon foot print • Action is required
Technologies • Major technology improvements
Wind turbines • Bigger is better
Technologies • Solar cells: efficiency is everything
Peakers High investment cost - High operation cost Base line Time of operation per year Risk Management • Electricity generation has moved from optimization to risk management Traditional portfolio
Risk Management • Typical cost variability Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Operation cost ($/kWh) Wind Solar Investment cost ($/kW)
5. Oil & Gas Tensions From: www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans-habitat/oceans/oap-pao/img/hudsonrig.jpg
Oil and Gas Tensions • Oil Price 1 barrel = 42 Gallons July 12, 2008 $147.27 January 16, 2009 $36.51
Oil Price over 2008 Source: Crude Oil Price NYMEX, http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
Oil and Gas Tensions • Weak dollar currency impact Source: Federal Bank of Texas – Quarterly Report (2nd Quarter 2008)
Oil and Gas Tensions • Crude oil peak (M. King Huppert 1956)
Crude Oil Peak Non OPEC countries
Oil and Gas Tension • The USA have been increasingly dependent on foreign oil
Oil and Gas Tensions • Natural Gas Price Volatility
Renewable in Energy mix • Electricity generation in the world
Power Generation in the USA USA Power Generation U.S. Power Plants The size of each circle represents the quantity of emissions in 2002 24 million tons 15 million tons 4 million tons CoalGasOil Source: MJ Bradley and Associates
CO2 Emissions in the USA and in California • In 2006, the USA emissions were 6,000 MM tons of CO2, they were 480 MM tons in California Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Green House Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2006 February, 2008 CARB, Climate Change Proposed Scoping Plan, a framework for change October, 2008
California Energy Mix • California Gross System Power for 2006 (GWh) Source: CEC http://www.energy.ca.gov/electricity/gross_system_power.html
Renewable Portfolio Standards • 28 states have RPS *Four states, Illinois, Missouri, Virginia, and Vermont, have set voluntary goals for adopting renewable energy instead of portfolio standards with binding targets.
Renewable Portfolio Standard Source: http://www.eere.energy.gov/states/maps/renewable_portfolio_states.cfm#map
Fast growing Renewable Energy Sector • Wind is booming in the USA
Fast growing Renewable Energy Sector Total 16,819 MW As 12/31/07 Source: awea 2007 1999
94,000 World wide