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NEPOOL Participants Committee Boston, MA September 10, 2004

NEPOOL Participants Committee Boston, MA September 10, 2004. Stephen G. Whitley Senior Vice President & COO. Agenda. System Operations Market Operations Cold Snap Task Force Winter 2004/2005 Outlook Back-Up Detail. System Operations. Operations Highlights.

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NEPOOL Participants Committee Boston, MA September 10, 2004

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  1. NEPOOL Participants Committee Boston, MA September 10, 2004 Stephen G. Whitley Senior Vice President & COO

  2. Agenda • System Operations • Market Operations • Cold Snap Task Force • Winter 2004/2005 Outlook • Back-Up Detail

  3. System Operations

  4. Operations Highlights • Boston & Hartford Weather Pattern: • Temperatures were near normal with slightly above precipitation during August. • Peak load of 24,153 MW at 16:00 hours on August 30, 2004. • During August: • NPCC Shared Activation of Reserve Events: • August 1 L/O Lake Road 708 Mw • August 4 L/O Granite Ridge 672 Mw • August 4 L/O Granite Ridge 680 Mw • August 19 L/O Bruce #6 864 Mw • August 20 L/O Mystic #9 675 Mw • August 30 L/O Nine Mile Point #1 585 Mw • Minimum Generation: • August 8, 17 and 23. • MS #2: • August 15 Hurricane Charley • August 20 Lightning with multiple trips • OP #4 • August 20 Boston Area – Lightning with multiple trips

  5. Market Operations

  6. Day–Ahead & Real-Time Prices, ISO Hub: SAT_SANDY_PD_1X_1X Constraint Binding Due to Load and Generation. OP4 Declared in Boston

  7. Congestion Component LMP Marginal Loss Component Day-Ahead–LMP Average by Zone & Hub: August 1, 2004 to August 30, 2004 (2.99) (0.08) (0.75) (-2.16) (-1.55) (-2.85) (-3.63) (-11.31)

  8. Congestion Component LMP Marginal Loss Component Real-Time-LMP Average by Zone & Hub: August 1, 2004 to August 30, 2004 (3.45) (1.29) (0.25) (0.07) (-2.55) (-2.77) (-3.54) (-11.96) 97.4%

  9. Day - Ahead Market vs. Forecast Load

  10. Day - Ahead LMP

  11. Real - Time LMP SAT_SANDY_PD_1X_1X CONSTRAINT BINDING DUE TO LOAD AND GENERATION.

  12. Settlement Data – Real Time & Balancing Market Percentage of Real-Time Load Fully Hedged Through ISO-NE Settlement System 80% 77% 75% 75% 75% 74% 73% 73% 75% 73% 72% 73% 71% 72% 71% 71% 71% 70% 71% 70% 70% 70% % RT Load Fully Hedged 65% 60% 55% 50% Jul-03 Jul-04 Jun-03 Jan-04 Jun-04 Apr-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Oct-03 Mar-03 Feb-04 Mar-04 Aug-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Aug-04 May-03 May-04 Mar 02 - Feb 03 Average Month Note: Partial Data (August 1-26, 2004)

  13. Cold Snap Task Force

  14. Cold Snap Task Force Three high-priority, short-term objectives targeted for implementation prior to winter 2004/2005: 1) Electric Market Synchronization with Gas Market • ISO & NEPOOL Cold Snap Task Force (CSTF) – Finalizing proposal with NEPOOL MC 2) Electric/Gas Operating Committee • Education, Understanding, Coordination, Communications 3) Investigate True Dual Fuel Capability & Promote Expansion • EES Group – Environmental Consultants

  15. Cold Snap Task Force, Con’t. 1) Electric Market Synchronization with Gas Market • Cold Snap Proposal is event driven, triggered by extreme weather and a potential for capacity shortages. • Two options being decided upon by NEPOOL MC • Electric/Gas Operating Committee: • Coordination within four areas: • Maintenance: scheduled & unscheduled • Operations: contingencies, blackout/system restoration • Training: common-mode & emergency drills • Planning: contingency identification & analysis

  16. Cold Snap Task Force, Con’t. 3)Investigate True Dual Fuel Capability & Promote Expansion • ESS Group = Environmental Consultants • Compilation of environmental permits • Assess dual fuel constraints & limitations • Expansion strategies & feasibility analysis • Dialogue with New England Air Regulators • Site visits will determine real barriers 4)Other ISO Activities: • Access to pipelines EBBs: OFO & nomination confirmation • New England specific natural gas supply study

  17. Cold Snap Task Force, Con’t. • Timeline • Define problem & key issues - Complete • Publish Interim ISO-NE Cold Snap Report - Complete • Prioritize issues & brainstorm solution sets - Complete • Present proposal options to stakeholders - September • Finalize proposal & Market Rule & procedures changes - September • Publish Final ISO-NE Cold Snap Report - September • Implement & test changes - Fall 2004

  18. Winter Outlook

  19. Winter 2004-05 Capacity Assessment 50/50 Forecast December ’04 through March ’05 Conditions for Week of Lowest Operable Capacity Margin Week beginning January 8th MW Projected Peak (50/50) 22,370 Operating Reserve Required 1,700 Total Operable Cap. Required 24,070 Projected Capacity 33,820 Assumed Outages 6,500 Total Capacity 27,320 Operable Capacity Margin 3,250

  20. Winter 2004-05 Capacity Assessment

  21. Winter 2004-05 Capacity Assessment

  22. Winter 2004-05 Capacity Assessment

  23. Winter 2004-05 Capacity Assessment90/10 Forecast December ’04 through March ’05 Conditions for Week of Lowest Operable Capacity Margin Week beginning January 8th MW Projected Peak (90/10) 23,255 Operating Reserve Required 1,700 Total Operable Cap. Required 24,955 Projected Capacity 33,820 Assumed Outages 7,000 Total Capacity 26,820 Operable Capacity Margin 1,865 An additional 2,000 MW of capacity, which was not available during the 2004 Cold Snap, is expected to be available as result of preliminary Cold Snap Initiatives.

  24. Winter 2004-05 Capacity Assessment 90/10 Forecast

  25. Winter 2004-05 Capacity Assessment 90/10 Forecast

  26. Winter 2004-05 Capacity Assessment 90/10 Forecast

  27. Back-Up Detail

  28. Demand Response

  29. Demand Response(as of August 31, 2004)

  30. Demand Response, Con’t.(as of August 31, 2004) * SWCT assets are included in CT values and are not included in Total

  31. New Generation

  32. New Generation Update • No new resources were added in August. • Approximately 60 MW expected on line by the end of the year. • Status of Generation Projects as of September 1, 2004: No.MW In Construction 3 127.4 with 18.4 approval Not in Construction 7 1,417 with 18.4 Approval

  33. RTEP

  34. RTEP Update • Major changes from TEAC August 2 version of RTEP04 • Generation duty analysis requires much follow-up work and will be an RTEP05 effort. • TEAC comments on the market summarized in the Technical Report with details included as minutes. • Public Meeting held on Thursday, September 9, in Boston. • Comments received • Support for RTEP process. • Use of 90/10 forecast for Operable Capacity analysis. • Need for improved coordination of planning and market development effort. • ISO BOD action anticipated in October. • Project Listing • Update to be discussed at October 5 joint TEAC/RC meeting as addendum to RTEP04.

  35. Inter-ISO Update • Northeastern ISO/RTO Planning Coordination Protocol • Signed by ISO-NE and NYISO • Awaiting signature by PJM • Next Steps • Form Joint ISO/RTO Planning Committee. • Exchange system plans and SIS queues. • Initiate Inter-area Planning Stakeholder Advisory Committee.

  36. Stage Description 1 Planning and Preparation of Project Configuration 2 Pre-construction (e.g., material ordering, project scheduling) 3 Construction in Progress 4 Completed RTEP Project Stage Descriptions

  37. NSTAR 345 kV Transmission Reliability Project Status as of 9/7/04 Project Benefit: Improves New England reliability by addressing Boston Area concerns and increasing Boston Import Limit from 3,600 MW to approximately 4,500 MW. Expected Original Present Upgrade In-service In-service Stage Phase 1 Stoughton 345 kV Substation Jun-06 Jun-06 1 Stoughton - Hyde Park 345 kV Jun-06 Jun-06 1 Stoughton - K Street 345 kV #1 Jun-06 Jun-06 1 Phase 2 Stoughton - K Street 345 kV #2 Dec-07 Dec-07 1 Notes: - Siting review in progress; ruling due 4th quarter 2004. - Detailed engineering in progress. - Received conditional ISO approval 8-4-04.

  38. SWCT 345 kV Transmission Reliability Project Status as of 9/7/04 Project Benefit: Improves New England reliability by addressing SWCT concerns. Increases SWCT Import Limit from 2,000 MW to approximately 3,400 MW. Expected Original Present Upgrade In-service In-service Stage Phase 1 Norwalk 345 kV Substation Nov-05 Dec-04 2 Plumtree 345 kV Substation Nov-05 Dec-04 2 Norwalk - Plumtree 345 kV Nov-05 Dec-04 2 Associated 115 kV Line Work Nov-05 Dec-04 2 Phase 2 Beseck 345 kV Substation Dec-07 Jan-06 1 East Devon 345 kV Substation Dec-07 Jan-06 1 Singer 345 kV Substation Dec-07 Jan-06 1 Beseck - East Devon 345 kV Dec-07 Jan-06 1 East Devon - Singer 345 kV Dec-07 Jan-06 1 Singer - Norwalk 345 kV Dec-07 Jan-06 1 Associated 115 kV Line Work Dec-07 Jan-06 1 Notes Phase 1: - Siting review complete; appeal denied. - Detailed engineering in progress. - Modification may become necessary to mitigate harmonic resonance concerns. Notes Phase 2: - Siting review in progress, ruling due December 2004. - Modification may become necessary to mitigate harmonic resonance concerns.

  39. Northeast Reliability Interconnect Project Status as of 9/7/04 Project Benefit: Improves New England reliability by improving inter-area transfer capability and eliminating various protection/stability concerns.

  40. NWVT 345 kV Transmission Reliability Project Status as of 9/7/04 Project Benefit: Improves New England reliability by addressing NWVT concerns, bringing another source into the Burlington area.

  41. Southern New England Reliability Project Status as of 9/7/04 Project Benefit: Improves New England reliability by increasing transfer limits of three critical interfaces, including Connecticut Import Limit

  42. Transmission Siting Update • SWCT • Phase I • Received conditional approval from Connecticut Siting Council 2/11/04 • Phase II • Town hearings complete • “Need” hearings complete • ISO-NE testified on June 17 and expressed concerned with proposal as filed due to harmonics problems. ISO, NU and UI submitted ROC report on August 16. • ROC has reconvened to perform additional analyses. • BOSTON • New Boston 1 needed until NSTAR completes 345 kV Reliability Project from Stoughton to Hyde Park and K Street (2006 earliest) • 18.4 approval for the NSTAR 345 kV transmission reliability project expected 3Q 2004 • Salem Harbor needed at least until NGRID North Shore upgrades (2006 earliest) • These units provide operating reserves for the current system as well as insurance for delays in transmission projects • Long-term solution is functioning Resource Adequacy market to incent generation to locate in the most appropriate areas, with the ability to do gap RFP’s to address timing issues

  43. Transmission Siting Update, Con’t. • NWVT • State hearing process continues • Technical and relocation hearings complete • Rebuttal pre-file testimony submitted July 2 • Rebuttal hearings complete • Decision delayed; expected by January, 2005 • Surrebuttal pre-file testimony submitted 9-3-04 • Surrebuttal hearings scheduled for September

  44. Compliance

  45. 2004 Compliance Update • A4: Maintenance for Bulk Power System Protection • Responses to ISO-NE survey were required by 1/5/04. • Level 2 sanction was imposed on 3 Participants for failure to respond on time. • ISO-NE reported full compliance with this Standard to NPCC.

  46. 2004 Compliance Update Con’t. • A3-4.9: Generator Underfrequency Tripping • All Participants surveyed responded to the ISO-NE Survey • 3 Participants have generators with non-compliant trip settings • 2 are exempt (nuclear plants) • 1 will require that ISO-NE enforce compliance • A3-4.6: Underfrequency Load Shedding • All Participants surveyed responded to the ISO-NE Survey • ISO-NE reported full compliance with this Standard to NPCC

  47. 2004 Compliance Update, Con’t. SANCTIONS • Level 1 – Letter from Director SP to the functional head of the Industry Participant with copy to NCWG • Level 2 – Letter from COO to the Chief Executive of the Industry Participant with copy to the relevant functional head, all NEPOOL Participants and NPCC • Level 3 – Letter from the CEO to the Board of Directors of the Industry Participant with copies to Level 2 recipients. Post on the ISO-NE Compliance Website. • Level 4 –Level 3 penalty with copies to State/Provincial regulatory agencies, FERC, DOE, State Governor and Legislators.

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